Real Estate Lending Risks Monitor
This periodic report examines western real estate market conditions, bank lending concentrations, and loan quality indicators.
The 12th District RE Conditions report provides a high level overview of real estate market conditions in the 12th District based on results from FRBSF’s CRE and RRE Vitality models.
This RE Lending Risks Monitor discusses key trends in commercial real estate markets and related lending issues, geared towards lenders within the 12th Federal Reserve District (nine western states).
The RE Lending Risks Monitor discusses key trends in residential and commercial real estate markets and related lending issues, geared towards lenders within the 12th Federal Reserve District (nine western states).
This monitor highlights some positive signs for housing markets in the west.
The outlook for 12th District CRE markets is generally positive but tempered by continuing slow business expansion and job growth. Apartment and hotel fundamentals have nearly normalized with the return of economic growth. However remaining economic uncertainty has slowed the recovery in the office and industrial sectors. The retail sector continues to struggle with high vacancies, falling rents, and weak absorption, as consumer confidence remains low.
The economy and real estate markets show clear signs of stabilization; however, many 12th District banks may not see significant benefits for some time largely due to probable further weakening of CRE income property loan portfolios. This Monitor suggests that while many banks will see further recovery in 2011, others may weaken as net charge off rates on CRE loans (nonfarm nonresidential secured) may climb significantly in 2011 and 2012. Given high CRE concentrations on average, 12th District banks may be more impacted than banks in other areas of the country.
There are many positive signs in housing markets. Affordability is at its highest level in over 40 years, which together with various incentives, has contributed to a surge in home sales. Inventories of existing and new homes have fallen, while demand for finished lots in prime locations has become heated as homebuilders prepare for a resurgence in new home demand. And thankfully, the steep descent in home prices has been replaced by some stability. However, national data can obscure regional trends.