Serving the public with innovative research and analysis
Rhys Bidder, economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated his views on the current economy and the outlook as of November 12, 2015.
China’s demand for imports helps support the global economic recovery, so China’s recent economic slowdown has caused international concern. China’s slowdown is concentrated in the industrial sector, while its emerging service sector has shown much new strength. However, China’s service sector is relatively closed and relies only modestly on imports. Accordingly, service sector growth is unlikely to offset the adverse implications of a slowing China for global trade.
We estimate the upper-level elasticity of substitution between goods and services of a nested aggregate CES preference specification. We show how this elasticity can be derived from the long-run response of the relative price of a good to a change in its VAT rate. We estimate this elasticity using new data on changes in VAT rates across 74 goods and services for 25 E.U. countries from 1996 through 2015. Our results point to an upper-level elasticity of between 1, at a high level of aggregation that distinguishes 12 categories of goods and services, and 3, at the lowest level of aggregation with 74 categories.
The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCEPI) is one measure of U.S. inflation. The PCEPI measures the percentage change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers throughout the economy.
The Tech Pulse Index is an index of coincident indicators of activity in the U.S. information technology sector. It can be interpreted as a summary statistic that tracks the health of the tech sector in a timely manner.
This site presents a real-time, quarterly series on total factor productivity (TFP) for the U.S. business sector, adjusted for variations in factor utilization - labor effort and capital's workweek.
The Wage Rigidity Meter offers a closer examination of the annual wage changes of U.S. workers that have not changed jobs over the year.