Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Economic Research

Structural and Cyclical Elements in Macroeconomics

March 16, 2012

Summary

Agenda

Morning Session Chair: John Fernald, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
8:10 A.M. Continental Breakfast
8:50 A.M. Welcoming Remarks:
  John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
9:00 A.M. Jinzu Chen, International Monetary Fund
  Prakash Kannan, International Monetary Fund
  Prakash Loungani, International Monetary Fund
  Bharat Trehan, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
  New Evidence on Cyclical and Structural Sources of Unemployment (PDF – 462KB)
  Discussants: Steven Davis, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
    Valerie Ramey, University of California, San Diego
10:20 A.M. Break
10:40 A.M. Robert Hall, Stanford University
  Quantifying the Forces Leading to the Collapse of GDP after the Financial Crisis (PDF – 826KB)
  Discussants: Antonella Trigari, Università Bocconi
    Roger Farmer, University of California, Los Angeles
12:00 P.M. Lunch – Market Street Dining Room, Fourth Floor
 
Afternoon Session Chair: Eric Swanson, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
1:15 P.M. Charles Fleischman, Federal Reserve Board
  John Roberts, Federal Reserve Board
  From Many Series, One Cycle: Improved Estimates of the Business Cycle
from a Multivariate Unobserved Components Model (PDF – 302KB)
  Discussants: Carlos Carvalho, Pontificia Universidade Católica, Rio de Janeiro
    Ricardo Reis, Columbia University
2:35 P.M. Break
2:50 P.M. Christopher Carroll, Johns Hopkins University
  Jiri Slacalek, European Central Bank
  Martin Sommer, International Monetary Fund
  Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Credit, Wealth, and Precautionary
Effects (PDF – 1.18MB)
  Discussants: Karen Dynan, Brookings Institution
    Gauti Eggertsson, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
4:10 P.M. Break
4:25 P.M. Andreas Fuster, Harvard University
  Benjamin Hebert, Harvard University
  David Laibson, Harvard University
  Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing (PDR – 663KB)
  Discussants: Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley
    Stefan Nagel, Stanford Graduate School of Business
5:45 P.M. Reception – West Market Street Lounge, Fourth Floor
6:30 P.M. Dinner – Market Street Dining Room, Fourth Floor
  Introduction: John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
  Speaker: Peter Diamond, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  Unemployment and Debt