Working Papers

2008-31 | March 2009

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The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks

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The term premium on nominal long-term bonds in the standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model used in macroeconomics is far too small and stable relative to empirical measures obtained from the data--an example of the "bond premium puzzle." However, in models of endowment economies, researchers have been able to generate reasonable term premiums by assuming that investors have recursive Epstein-Zin preferences and face long-run economic risks. We show that introducing Epstein-Zin preferences into a canonical DSGE model can also produce a large and variable term premium without compromising the model's ability to fi…t key macroeconomic variables. Long-run real and nominal risks further improve the model's ability to …fit the data with a lower level of household risk aversion.

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