Source: BEA, as of 2009 Q4. Source: BEA, as of December 2009. Source: BLS, as of January 2010. Source: BLS, as of January 2010. Looking at the outlook from a year ago, our forecasts for economic growth and inflation proved to be reasonably on target, but the unemployment rate rose far more than we had expected. — John C. Williams » Read more in FedViews • January 2010 Hong Kong and China and the Global Recession • FRBSF Economic Letter 2010-04 Hong Kong and China are recovering impressively from global recession thanks to effective stimulus programs. But authorities worry that expansionary U.S. monetary policy may fuel asset bubbles in their economies. In the long run, the recession may nudge China toward increased domestic consumption by highlighting the risks of export-driven development. This Letter is adapted from a report by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on her visit to Hong Kong and China November 15-21, 2009. Yellen • February 8, 2010 District Trends Beige Book • January 13, 2010 Economic activity appeared to pick up slightly in December. Holiday season retail sales were up from the preceding season but were slow compared with prior years. » Summary • 12th District • Full report 12L Economic Trends • January 2010 ETC: Economic Trends & Conditions • February 2010 BS&R's 12th District Banking Profile • Q2 2009 |
Recent FRBSF research on the crisis
For a complete list, please visit: Crisis & Response New in Research In the News Fed's Yellen: Low U.S. rates stimulatory for China • taken from Reuters • February 8 The U.S. Federal Reserve's ultra-easy monetary policy is fueling concerns in Hong Kong and China over asset bubbles and prospects for dollar weakness, which could hurt their dollar-denominated investments, a top Federal Reserve official said on Monday. China, however, could adjust its exchange rate to allay inflationary worries, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said in an Economic Letter. » Read more in Hong Kong and China and the Global Recession
Fed Policy and Mortgage Choice • taken from Economist's View Blog • February 2 The Fed has been purchasing mortgage backed securities, but only those containing fixed interest rate mortgages. Mortgages with variable interest rates have not been part of the Fed's mortgage backed security purchase program. Coinciding with this, and probably caused by the Fed's intervention, has been a change in the composition of mortgage purchases by households toward fixed rate loans. » Read more in Mortgage Choice and the Pricing of Fixed-Rate and No fair share of Olympic rewards for us • taken from the Sunday Times • by Joan McAlpine • January 31 Londoners are also concerned about the rising costs. But at least their city will have large parts of derelict east end land reclaimed, and improvements to its transport infrastructure, as well as the new venues. Although the games always make a paper loss, there are long-term economic benefits. One study, The Olympic Effect, by Mark Spiegel, a research economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, found that international trade could increase by up to 30% after the games. » Read more in The Olympic Effect
“Macro-Finance Models of Interest Rates and the Economy” • Working paper 2010-01 During the past decade, much new research has combined elements of finance, monetary economics, and macroeconomics in order to study the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and the economy. In this survey, I describe three different strands of such interdisciplinary macro-finance term structure research. Rudebusch • January 2010 Upcoming Seminars Macro Seminar International Seminar Applied Micro Seminar Research Centers |
