We expect the pace of GDP growth will pick up over the next few years and the unemployment rate will decline only gradually. A large degree of labor market slack is likely to persist at least through 2015. — Rob Valletta » Read more in FedViews • December 13 Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Uncertainty • FRBSF Economic Letter 2012-38 Market expectations about the Federal Reserve’s policy rate involve both the future path of that rate and the uncertainty surrounding that path. Fed policy actions have historically been preceded by high levels of uncertainty, which decline after the policy is made public. Recently, measures of near-term interest rate uncertainty have fallen to historical lows, due partly to a Fed policy rate near zero. Unconventional monetary policies have substantially lowered both expectations and uncertainty about the future path of the Fed’s policy rate. Bauer • December 24, 2012 District Trends Beige Book • November 28, 2012 Economic activity expanded at a modest pace. Sales of retail items rose further, and price inflation for most goods and services was subdued. » Summary • 12th District • Full report 12L Economic Trends • December 2012 (pdf, 518kb) |
Improving Fed Transparency Opening the Temple: An Essay by President and CEO John C. Williams Recent FOMC Communications Initiatives 
On January 25, the FOMC took two important steps to improve transparency about monetary policy in the U.S. First, the FOMC provided a statement that outlines its longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy. Second, the FOMC provided guidance about its expectations for future monetary policy in the form of quantitative projections of the federal funds rate. New in Research In the News Common Core Sparks War Over Words • by Lyndsey Layton, The Washington Post • December 5, 2012 "The new standards, which are slowly rolling out now and will be in place by 2014, require that nonfiction texts represent 50 percent of reading assignments in elementary schools, and the requirement grows to 70 percent by grade 12. Among the suggested non-fiction pieces for high school juniors and seniors are Alexis de Tocqueville's "Democracy in Amercia" and "FedViews" by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco." » Read more in the current FedViews • November 8, 2012 Why Suicides Are More Common in Richer Neighborhoods • by Josh Sanburn, Time.com • November 8, 2012 "Happiness is directly related to how much money we make. We've known that for a while. So it shouldn't be surprising that our earnings also correlate with suicide rates. A new paper from the San Francisco Federal Reserve shows that, all else being equal, suicide risks are higher in wealthier neighborhoods, a morbid demonstration of the folly of trying to keep up with the Joneses." » Read more in "Relative Status and Well-Being: Evidence from U.S. Suicide Deaths" Study: 'Boomerang Buyers' Unlikely to Return Quickly • by Nick Timiraos, The Wall Street Journal (Blog) • November 5, 2012 "The length of the foreclosure crisis—it’s been going on for nearly six years now—is raising an interesting question: How many of those borrowers who lost their homes in the first wave of foreclosures will become homeowners in the coming years? According to a paper from researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ... former homeowners who defaulted on their mortgage during the recent housing crisis are likely to return to homeownership at a slower pace than previous cohorts of defaulters." » Read more in "Credit Access Following a Mortgage Default" • Hedberg • Krainer Decomposing Medical-Care Expenditure Growth • Working paper 2012-26 Medical-care expenditures have been rising rapidly, accounting for almost one-fifth of GDP in 2009. This study assesses the source of this growth, employing a novel framework for decomposing expenditure growth into four components at the disease level: service price growth, service utilization growth, treated disease prevalence growth, and demographic shift. The decomposition shows that growth in prices and treated prevalence are the primary drivers of expenditure growth. Dunn • Liebman • • November 2012 Upcoming Seminars Seminar (Finance) • Annette Vissing-Jorgensen (Northwestern Kellogg) • October 1 Seminar (Macro) • Karl Walentin (Sveriges Riksbank) • October 2 Seminar (Finance) • Seth Pruitt (Board) • October 9 Seminar (Finance) • Wayne Passmore (Board) • October 10 Seminar (International) • Assaf Razin (Cornell) • October 12
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