Source: BEA, as of 2010 Q1. Source: BEA, as of May 2010. Source: BLS, as of June 2010. Source: BLS, as of June 2010. Some recent data have been below expectations, but the overall economic picture remains one of continued growth at a moderate pace. — Mark Spiegel » Read more in FedViews • July 8 Mortgage Prepayments and Changing Underwriting Standards • FRBSF Economic Letter 2010-22 Despite historically low mortgage interest rates, borrower prepayments have been lower than expected over the past year. For example, a model based on prepayment data from 2000 through the beginning of 2009 predicts a prepayment rate for the first quarter of 2010 roughly twice as high as the observed rate. It can be conjectured that current low prepayment rates reflect the influence of factors specific to the housing bust, including a significant tightening of lending terms for certain borrowers, weak housing demand, and high foreclosure rates. Hedberg • Krainer • July 19, 2010 Economic Review 2010 Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Economy with Learning • Williams State Business Taxes and Investment: State-by-State Simulations • Chirinko • Wilson
» Letter to our readers District Trends Beige Book • July 28, 2010 Economic activity appeared to pick up slightly, with housing as the primary exception. Upward price pressures remained quite modest. » Summary • 12th District • Full report 12L Economic Trends • June 2010 ETC: Economic Trends & Conditions • June 2010 BS&R's 12th District Banking Profile • Q2 2009 |
Recent FRBSF research on the crisis
For a complete list, please visit: Crisis & Response New in Research Speeches The Economic Outlook: Moving Forward on a Bumpy Road • John C. Williams • July 28 The recent softness in the economic data looks much more like a bump in the road of what we already thought would be a gradual recovery, rather than a swerve into the ditch. » Read the entire speech In the News SF Fed Official: Economy Suffering From Temporary Weakness • taken from Wsj.com • by Michael S. Derby • July 28 "The recent softness in the economic data looks much more like a bump in the road of what we already thought would be a gradual recovery, rather than a swerve into the ditch," said John Williams, the bank's executive vice president and director of research. » Read more in The Economic Outlook: Moving Forward on a Bumpy Road
Senate Advances Jobless Aid Plan Over Republican Objections • Brian Faler • taken from Blommberg.com • July 20 An April report by a pair of economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said that the aid extensions, which are the longest ever, have contributed to the unemployment rate, though the effect was "relatively modest." It estimated the jobless rate at the end of last year would have been 9.6 percent, rather than 10 percent, without the extensions. » Read more in Extended Unemployment and UI Benefits
Federal Reserve Worry List Gets Longer • taken from Reuters • by Emily Kaiser • July 12 The Fed seems to be watching. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published a research paper on "fiscal crises of the states" in late June, less than a week after the Fed's last policy meeting. » Read more in Fiscal Crises of the States: Causes and Consequences
Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore • Working paper 2010-18 We derive aggregate growth-accounting implications for a two-sector economy with heterogeneous capital subsidies and monopoly power. These distortions lead to dynamic reallocation effects, and can cause measures of productivity growth in terms of quantities (the primal) and real factor prices (the dual) to diverge from each other and from true technology growth. For the case of Singapore, we show how to use incomplete data to measure growth in technology and reallocation, and we reconcile divergent TFP estimates. Fernald • Neiman • May 2010 Upcoming Seminars Seminar (International) Seminar (Macro) Brown bag (Macro) Seminar (International) Upcoming Conferences Applied Micro Summer Conference • July 14-16, 2010 2010 Pacific Basin Research Conference • October 1, 2010 • Call for papers Conference on Empirical Macroeconomics Using Geographical Data • March 18, 2011 • Call for papers Research Centers |