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Recent Trends In Economic Volatility: Sources And Implications
A Conference
Sponsored by the
Center for the Study of
Innovation and Productivity
November 2 and 3,
2007
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco |
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| Friday, November 2 |
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| 8:15 a.m. |
Continental Breakfast |
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| 8:45 a.m. |
Welcoming Remarks |
| |
Janet Yellen, President,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco |
|
| Morning Session: Financial Innovation and the Consumer |
|
Chair: |
John Fernald, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco |
| 9:00 a.m. |
“On the Sources of the Great Moderation” |
| Authors: |
Luca Gambetti, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Jordi Galí, CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra |
| Discussants: |
Mark W. Watson, Princeton University
Todd Walker, Indiana University |
|
10:20 a.m. |
Break |
|
| 10:40 a.m. |
“Technological Diversification” |
| Authors: |
Miklós Koren, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Silvana Tenreyro, London School of Economics |
| Discussants: |
Jonathan Eaton, New York University
David K. Levine, Washington University in St. Louis |
|
| 12:00 p.m. |
Lunch |
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| Afternoon Session |
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Chair: |
John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco |
1:30 p.m. |
“Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in Micro Volatility” |
| Authors: |
Steven J. Davis, University of Chicago and NBER
James A. Kahn, Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Discussants: |
Nick Bloom, Stanford University
Douglas Elmendorf, Brookings Institution |
|
| 2:50 p.m. |
Break |
|
| 3:20 p.m. |
“A Theory of Growth and Volatility at the Aggregate and Firm Level” |
Presenter: |
Diego Comin, Harvard Business School and NBER
Sunil Mulani, Commonfund Capital, Inc. |
Discussants: |
Rasmus Lentz, University of Wisconsin
Chad Jones, University of California, Berkeley |
| 4:40 p.m. |
“Scale without Mass: Business Process Replication and Industry Dynamics” |
Authors: |
Erik Brynjolfsson, MIT Sloan
Andrew McAfee, Harvard Business School
Michael Sorell, Harvard Business School
Feng Zhu, Harvard Business School |
Discussants: |
Zhu Wang, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Shane Greenstein, Kellogg School of Management,
Northwestern University |
|
| 6:00 p.m. |
Reception, West Market Street Lounge, Fourth Floor |
| 7:00 p.m. |
Dinner, Market Street Dining Room, Fourth Floor |
Keynote Speaker: |
Robert Shiller, Yale University |
Title: |
"Thoughts on Financial Innovation and Volatility" |
|
| Saturday,
November 3 |
|
| 8:30 a.m. |
Breakfast |
|
| Morning Session: Financial Innovations, Risk Sharing and Systemic Risk |
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Chair: |
Dan Wilson, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco |
| 9:00 a.m. |
“Business Volatility, Job Destruction and Unemployment” |
| Authors: |
Steven J. Davis, University of Chicago and NBER
R. Jason Faberman, US Bureau of Labor Statistics
John Haltiwanger, University of Maryland and NBER
Ron Jarmin, Center for Economic Studies, US Census Bureau
Javier Miranda, Center for Economic Studies, US Census Bureau |
| Discussants: |
John Abowd, Cornell University
Robert E. Hall, Stanford University |
|
| 10:20 a.m. |
Break |
|
| 10:40 a.m. |
“The Roles of Comovement and Inventory Investment in the Reduction of Output Volatility” |
| Authors: |
Owen Irvine, Michigan State University
and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Scott Schuh, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston |
| Discussants: |
Robert Gordon, Northwestern University
Valerie Ramey, University of California, San Diego |
|
| 12:00 p.m. |
Lunch |
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| 1:00 p.m. |
Adjourn |
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