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– Current Unpublished Working Papers
Subprime Mortgage Delinquency Rates
2007-33 :: With Doms and Krainer :: November 2007
+ abstract We evaluate the importance of three different channels for explaining the recent performance of subprime mortgages. First, the riskiness of the subprime borrowing pool may have increased. Second, pockets of regional economic weakness may have helped
push a larger proportion of subprime borrowers into delinquency. Third, for a variety of reasons, the recent history of local house price appreciation and the degree of house price deceleration may have affected delinquency rates on subprime mortgages. While we find
a role for all three candidate explanations, patterns in recent house price appreciation are far and away the best single predictor of delinquency levels and changes in delinquencies. Importantly, after controlling for the current level of house price appreciation, measures
of house price deceleration remain significant predictors of changes in subprime delinquencies. The results point to a possible role for changes in house price expectations for explaining changes in delinquencies.
Regional Economic Conditions and the Variability of Rates of Return in Commercial Banking
2007-21 :: With Krainer :: September 2007
+ abstract We develop new techniques to assess the relationship between commercial bank performance and the economic conditions in the markets in which they operate. In the analysis, we allow for heterogeneity in the responses of banks to regional economic conditions. We find a statistically significant relationship between bank performance and shocks to the regional markets in which they operate. We find that region-specific shocks have a significant and persistent effect on the cross-sectional variance of bank performance in the market. That is, shocks affecting average performance of banks in a region also tend to increase the dispersion of their performance. We demonstrate that this effect is due to heterogeneity in the banks' exposures to their regional economies. Moreover, by allowing for this heterogeneity, we find that systematic responses to regional economic effects are notably more important in explaining the variation in bank performance than suggested by analysis in which responses are constrain to be the same for all banks.
– Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes)
Comment: Reducing Risk at Small Community Banks: Is It Size or Geographic Diversification That Matters?
Journal of Financial Services Research 25(2-3), April 2004, 283-289
Financial Modernization and Regulation
Journal of Financial Services Research 16 (2/3), September 1999, 5-10 :: With Kwan
A Re-examination of Mean-Variance Analysis of Bank Capital Regulation
Journal of Banking and Finance 14, 1990 :: With Keeley
Capital Regulation and Bank Risk-Taking: A Note
Journal of Banking and Finance 13, 1989 :: With Keeley
Shoring Up the Deposit Insurance System
American Banker, 1988
Regulating Bank Capital
In Annual Editions: Macroeconomics :: Guilford, CT: The Dushkin Publishing Group, 1988 :: With Keeley
The Search for Financial Stability: Postscript
In The Search for Financial Stability: The Past Fifty Years, ed. by Furlong and Keeley, 1985. 213-234 :: With Keeley
– Books
Financial Modernization and Regulation
2000 :: Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers :: Editors • Eisenbeis • Furlong • Kwan
The Search for Financial Stability: The Past Fifty Years
1985 :: San Francisco: FRB San Francisco :: Editors • Furlong • Keeley
Basic Concepts in Economics
1983 :: Culver City: Zenger Publications :: Furlong • Furlong
– FRBSF Publications
Did the Housing Boom Affect Mortgage Choices?
Economic Letter 2012-33 :: November 5, 2012 :: With Takhtamanova
Stress Testing and Bank Capital Supervision
Economic Letter 2011-20 :: June 27, 2011
Loss Provisions and Bank Charge-offs in the Financial Crisis: Lesson Learned
Economic Letter 2010-16 :: May 24, 2010 :: With Knight
Regional Economic Conditions and Community Bank Performance
Economic Letter 2007-22 :: July 27, 2007 :: With Krainer
House Prices and Subprime Mortgage Delinquencies
Economic Letter 2007-14 :: June 8, 2007 :: With Doms and Krainer
Financial Market Signals and Banking Supervision: Are Current Practices Consistent with Research Findings?
Economic Review :: 2006 :: With R. Williams
Gains in U.S. Productivity: Stopgap Measures or Lasting Change?
Economic Letter 2005-05 :: March 11, 2005 :: With Daly
Deposit Insurance Reform--When Half a Loaf Is Better
Economic Letter 2002-14 :: May 10, 2002 :: With Kwan
Profile of a Recession: The U.S. and California
Economic Letter 2002-04 :: February 22, 2002 :: With Daly
Productivity in Banking
Economic Letter 2001-22 :: July 27, 2001
Rising Price of Energy
Economic Letter 2001-11 :: April 20, 2001 :: With Daly
California IPO Wealth Effects: What's Left?
Economic Letter 2000-36 :: December 8, 2000 :: With Mattey
Tech Stocks and House Prices in California
Economic Letter 2000-27 :: September 15, 2000 :: With Krainer
The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act and Financial Integration
Economic Letter 2000-10 :: March 31, 2000
» View FRBSF Publications prior to 2000
– Other Works
Safe and Sound Banking, 20 Years Later: What Was Proposed and What Has Been Adopted
Forthcoming in FRB Atlanta Economic Review :: With Kwan
Financial Turmoil and the Economy
2008 FRBSF Annual Report, 2009, 6-14 :: With Kwan
The Subprime Mortgage Market: National and Twelfth District Developments
2007 FRBSF Annual Report, 2008, 6-17 :: With Krainer
Shaping the Economy
FRBSF 2003 Annual Report, January 2004
Improving Public Disclosure in Banking
Federal Reserve System Staff Study 173, March 2000 :: With Kwan and et al.
Domestic and International U.S. Economic Policy in the 1980s
Paper delivered at the Eighth Pacific Basin Central Bank Conference on Economic Modeling in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, November 1988 :: With Beebe
New Deposit Instruments
Federal Reserve Bulletin, May 1983
Checkwriting and Other Redemption Activity at Money Market Funds
Federal Reserve Board, August 1982 :: With Moran
The Role of the Federal Agencies in Meeting the Liquidity Requirements of Thrift Institutions
In The Report of the Interagency Task Force on Thrift Institutions :: Washington, D.C.; U.S. Government Printing Office, 1980
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