Has a Recession Already Started?

FRBSF Economic Letter #2001-29 dated October 19, 2001

In this latest Economic Letter, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Senior Research Advisor Glenn Rudebusch examines the definition and dating of recessions and argues that, even in light of recent data and events, a recession may not be a certainty because of the lack of synchronization in the declines of various sectors of the economy; however if a recession does occur, its start could well be dated to last spring.

Glenn Rudebusch, Senior Research Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Now available on the Internet at: www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2001/el2001-29.html

Many people associate a recession with bad times—high unemployment, low production, and a generally stagnant economy. Strictly speaking though, a recession is the period when overall economic activity is actually declining—and production, employment, and sales are falling rather than just anemic or below normal. Rudebusch examines historical and current data and discusses the state of our current economic episode.