Decomposing Medical-Care Expenditure Growth • Dunn • Liebman • Shapiro • 2012-26

Medical-care expenditures have been rising rapidly, accounting for almost one-fifth of GDP in 2009. In this study, we assess the sources of the rising medical-care expenditures in the commercial sector. We employ a novel framework for decomposing expenditure growth into four components at the disease level: service price growth, service utilization growth, treated disease prevalence growth, and demographic shift. The decomposition shows that growth in prices and treated prevalence are the primary drivers of medical-care expenditure growth over the 2003 to 2007 period. There was no growth in service utilization at the aggregate level over this period. Price and utilization growth were especially large for the treatment of malignant neoplasms. For many conditions, treated prevalence has shifted towards preventive treatment and away from treatment for late-stage illnesses.

House Lock and Structural Unemployment • Valletta • 2012-25

A recent decline in geographic mobility in the United States may have been caused in part by falling house prices, through the “lock in” effects of financial constraints faced by households whose housing debt exceeds the market value of their home. I analyze the relationship between such “house lock” and the elevated levels and persistence of unemployment during the recent recession and its aftermath, using data that covers the period through the end of 2011. Because house lock will extend job search in the local labor market for homeowners whose home value has declined, I focus on differences in unemployment duration between homeowners and renters across geographic areas differentiated by the severity of the decline in home prices. The empirical analyses rely on microdata from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) files and an econometric method that enables the estimation of individual and aggregate covariate effects on completed unemployment durations in “synthetic cohort” (pseudo-panel) data. The estimates indicate the absence of a meaningful house lock effect on unemployment duration.

Beveridge Curve Shifts across Countries since the Great Recession • Hobijn • Sahin • 2012-24

We discuss the magnitude of and reasons for the shift in the Beveridge curve in the U.S. since the Great Recession and argue that skill mismatch and the extension of unemployment insurance benefits likely have played a nontrivial role in this shift. We then introduce a method to estimate fitted Beveridge curves for other OECD countries for which data on vacancies and employment by job tenure are available. We show that Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the U.K. also experienced rightward shifts in their Beveridge curves. We argue that the shift in the first three countries is due to similar mismatch factors as in the U.S. while the shift in Sweden is due to labor market reforms passed right before the Great Recession.

Top Incomes, Rising Inequality, and Welfare • Lansing • Markiewicz • 2012-23

The Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs • Curdia • Chen • Ferrero • 2012-22

The Economic Security Index: A New Measure for Research and Policy Analysis • Valletta • Hacker • Huber • Nichols • Rehm • Schlesinger • Craig • 2012-21

Housing Supply and Foreclosures • Krainer • Hedberg • 2012-20

A Quarterly, Utilization-Adjusted Series on Total Factor Productivity • Fernald • 2012-19 + supplement

Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession • Fernald • 2012-18

Risk Aversion, Risk Premia, and the Labor Margin with Generalized Recursive Preferences • Swanson • 2012-17

Relative Status and Well-Being: Evidence from U.S. Suicide Deaths • Daly • Wilson • Johnson • 2012-16

Should Transportation Spending Be Included in a Stimulus Program? A Review of the Literature • Leduc • Wilson • 2012-15

Mussa Redux and Conditional PPP • Bergin • Glick • Wu • 2012-14

Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with “Chinese Characteristics” • Chang • Liu • Spiegel • 2012-13

International Channels of the Fed’s Unconventional Monetary Policy • Bauer • Neely • 2012-12

House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy • Lansing • Gelain • Mendicino • 2012-11

Uncertainty Shocks are Aggregate Demand Shocks • Leduc • Liu • 2012-10

The Industry-Occupation Mix of U.S. Job Openings and Hires • Hobijn • 2012-09

Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models with Capital • Nechio • Carvalho • 2012-08

Pricing Deflation Risk with U.S. Treasury Yields • Christensen • Lopez • Rudebusch • 2012-07

The Response of Interest Rates to U.S. and U.K. Quantitative Easing • Christensen • Rudebusch • 2012-06

Empirical Simultaneous Prediction Regions for Path-Forecasts • Jorda • 2012-05

Roads to Prosperity or Bridges to Nowhere? Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment • Leduc • Wilson • 2012-04 + supplement

Lost in Translation? Teacher Training and Outcomes in High School Economics Classes • Valletta • Hoff • Lopus • 2012-03

Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates • Williams • Swanson • 2012-02

Do People Understand Monetary Policy? • Nechio • Carvalho • 2012-01

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