FRBSF Research: Economic Review

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FRBSF
Economic Review

An annual summary of Department research plus in-depth policy article.

Full issues: 2010 • 2009 • 2008 • 2007 • 2006 • 2005 • 2004 • 2003 • 2002

	Articles
2010	Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Economy with Learning John C. Williams State Business Taxes and Investment: State-by-State Simulations Robert S. Chirinko • Daniel J. Wilson
2009	Regional Growth and Resilience: Evidence from Urban IT Centers Jeremy Gerst • Mark Doms • Mary C. Daly Do Supervisory Rating Standards Change Over Time? John Krainer • Jose A. Lopez
2008	Information and Communications Technology as a General Purpose Technology: Evidence from U.S. Industry Data Susanto Basu • John G. Fernald The Role of Relative Performance in Bank Closure Decisions Kenneth Kasa • Mark M. Spiegel The Quantity and Character of Out-of-Market Small Business Lending Elizabeth S. Laderman
2007	Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge Athanasios Orphanides • John C. Williams Inflation Targeting and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Western Hemisphere Refet Gurkaynak • Andrew T. Levin • Andrew N. Marder • Eric T. Swanson Educational Attainment, Unemployment, and Wage Inflation Mary C. Daly • Osborne Jackson • Robert G. Valletta
2006	Robust Estimation and Monetary Policy with Unobserved Structural Change John C. Williams Financial Market Signals and Banking Supervision: Are Current Practices Consistent with Research Findings? Frederick T. Furlong • Robard Williams Current Account Adjustment with High Financial Integration: A Scenario Analysis Michele Cavallo • Cédric Tille
2005	Inflation Targeting under Commitment and Discretion Richard Dennis Changes in Twelfth District Local Banking Market Structure during a Period of Industry Consolidation \| Supplemental Appendix Elizabeth S. Laderman Fiscal Sustainability and Contingent Liabilities from Recent Credit Expansions in South Korea and Thailand Diego Valderrama

+ Previous years

2004	Performance of Urban Information Technology Centers:The Boom, the Bust, and the Future Mary C. Daly • Robert G. Valletta The Boom and Bust in Information Technology Investment Mark Doms Recent Productivity Growth:The Role of Information Technology and Other Innovations Martin N. Baily
2003	Simple Rules for Monetary Policy John C. Williams Productivity Shocks and the Unemployment Rate Bharat Trehan How Might Financial Market Information Be Used for Supervisory Purposes? John Krainer • Jose A. Lopez
2002	The Disposition of Failed Japanese Bank Assets: Lessons from the U.S. Savings and Loan Crisis Mark M. Spiegel Real-Time Estimation of Trend Output and the Illusion of Interest Rate Smoothing Kevin J. Lansing Banks, Bonds, and the Liquidity Effect Tor Einarsson • Milton H. Marquis Foreign Exchange: Macro Puzzles, Micro Tools Richard K. Lyons
2001	Five Questions about Business Cycles Francis X. Diebold • Glenn D. Rudebusch Pegging and Stabilization Policy in Developing Countries Ramon Moreno
2000	Cyclical and Demographic Influences on the Distribution of Income in California Mary C. Daly • Heather N. Royer The Separation of Banking and Commerce John Krainer
1999	Issue number 3 Moral Hazard under the Japanese "Convoy" Banking System Mark M. Spiegel Real Estate Liquidity John Krainer Depreciation and Recessions in East Asia Ramon Moreno Issue number 2 Methods for Evaluating Value-at-Risk Estimates Jose A. Lopez On the Portfolio Effects of Financial Convergence--A Review of the Literature Simon H. Kwan • Elizabeth S. Laderman Leverage, Monetary Policy, and Firm Investment Charles X. Hu Issue number 1 House Price Differentials and Dynamics: Evidence from the Los Angeles and San Francisco Metropolitan Areas Stuart A. Gabriel • Joe P. Mattey • William L. Wascher Did a Boom in Money and Credit Precede East Asia's Recent Currency Crisis? Ramon Moreno Should the Fed Take Deliberate Steps to Deflate Asset Price Bubbles? Timothy Cogley
1998	Issue number 3 Taylor's Rule and the Fed: 1970-1997 John P. Judd • Glenn D. Rudebusch Borrowing Constraints and Asset Market Dynamics: Evidence from the Pacific Basin Kenneth Kasa Changes in the Structure and Duration of U.S. Unemployment, 1967-1998 Robert G. Valletta Issue number 2 Federal Reserve Credibility and Inflation Scares Chan G. Huh • Kevin J. Lansing Disability and Work: The Experiences of American and German Men Richard V. Burkhauser • Mary C. Daly Is Mortgage Lending by Savings Associations Special? Elizabeth Laderman • Wayne Passmore Issue number 1 Central Bank Independence and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from British Index-Linked Gilts Mark M. Spiegel Growth and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study Brian Motley Forecasting Industrial Production Using Models Chan Huh
1997	Issue number 3 Evaluating Non-Structural Measures of the Business Cycle Timothy Cogley Long-Run Trends in Labor Supply Brian Motley Generational Accounting in Open Economies Eric O'N. Fisher • Kenneth Kasa Issue number 2 Factor Utilization and Margins for Adjusting Output: Evidence from Manufacturing Plants Joe Mattey • Steve Strongin A New Look at the Distributional Effects of Economic Growth during the 1980s: A Comparative Study of the United States and Germany Mary C. Daly • Amy D. Crews • Richard V. Burkhauser Economic Factors, Monetary Policy, and Expected Returns on Stocks and Bonds James R. Booth • Lena Chua Booth Issue number 1 Explaining Unemployment: Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks Prakash Loungani • Bharat Trehan The Effects of Industry Employment Shifts on the U.S. Wage Structure, 1979-1995 Robert G. Valletta Interpreting Procyclical Productivity: Evidence from a Cross-Nation Cross-Industry Panel J. Bradford De Long • Robert J. Waldmann
1996	Issue number 3 Using Monthly Data to Predict Quarterly Output Robert Ingenito • Bharat Trehan Explaining Differences in Farm Lending Among Banks Mark E. Levonian Intervention, Sterilization, and Monetary Control in Korea and Taiwan Ramon Moreno Hedonic-Based Price Indexes for Housing: Theory, Estimation, and Index Construction Nancy E. Wallace Issue number 2 Fixed-Premium Deposit Insurance and International Credit Crunches Mark M. Spiegel An Analysis of Inefficiencies in Banking: A Stochastic Cost Frontier Approach Simon H. Kwan • Robert A. Eisenbeis Commodity Prices and Inflation Fred Furlong • Robert Ingenito Issue number 1 Is There a Broad Credit Channel for Monetary Policy? Stephen D. Oliner • Glenn D. Rudebusch The 1980s Divergence in State per Capita Incomes: What Does It Tell Us? Carolyn Sherwood-Call Factors Influencing Community Bank Performance in California Gary C. Zimmerman

The Economic Review is published annually by the Research Department under the supervision of John C. Williams, Executive Vice President and Director of Research; Glenn Rudebusch, Senior Vice President and Associate Director of Research; Frederick Furlong, Group Vice President, Financial Research; Reuven Glick, Group Vice President, International Research; Mary Daly, Vice President, Applied Microeconomic Research and Regional Developments, and Director of the Center for the Study of Innovation and Productivity; John Fernald, Vice President, Macroeconomic Research; Simon Kwan, Vice President, Financial Research; Mark Spiegel, Vice President, International Research, and Director of the Center for Pacific Basin Studies. The publication is edited, compiled, and produced by Anita Todd, Research Editor. Permission to reprint portions of articles or whole articles must be obtained in writing. Permission to photocopy is unrestricted.

Please send editorial comments and requests for reprint permission to:

Research Library
Attn: Research publications, MS 1140
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
P.O. Box 7702
San Francisco, CA 94120