Paul Tierno covers the ongoing use of cloud resources among banks and nonbank fintechs. Before joining the SF Fed, Paul performed macroeconomic and political research of emerging markets in Asia. Paul received a master’s degree in international affairs from Columbia University’s School of International and Political Affairs. Paul also holds a bachelor’s degree in history from New York University.
Korea has some of the most supportive policies for startups and small businesses, including an abundant supply of government-backed loans, due to their role as an employment engine. Support for small businesses is poised to remain strong as the country undergoes a strategic shift toward inclusive and innovation led growth. However, critics point to data suggesting government programs enable poor performance among companies. In response, policymakers have introduced measures to diversify financing, increase the role of capital markets, and improve productivity.
Several Asian regulators are amending existing rules to allow technology firms to own and run virtual banks, which will likely result in a number of new digital lenders. This has triggered debate and discussion about licensing requirements, risk management, and consumer protection.
Indonesia’s economic fundamentals have improved considerably since the “taper tantrum”, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and ratings agencies sanguine about its performance. But as global financial conditions tightened this year, volatility seems to be on the rise again putting the resilience of emerging markets to the test.
Asian regulators clarified their stances on initial coin offerings and cryptocurrency exchanges this past year as public interest in both has skyrocketed. Some of the same qualities that attract investors to cryptocurrencies make them susceptible to money laundering and fraud. Regulators have acted to protect investors and their financial systems in steps ranging from banning ICOs and cryptocurrency exchanges to implementing licensing requirements ensuring new currencies and products face the same scrutiny as existing ones.
Asian economies have been borrowing more in recent years. Despite concerns that increased external and dollar-denominated debt leave Asia susceptible to destabilizing outflows, other economic and financial metrics depict a region more resilient than when it experienced the Asian Financial Crisis 20 years ago. Prudential policy and regulation have played an important role in improving the region’s financial resilience, though some efforts may run counter to the goal of developing deep local bond markets.
Earlier attempts to halt Korea’s dramatic increase in household debt missed the mark but recent regulations have succeeded in limiting credit growth and housing price increases. While household loan quality is performing well the earlier parallel rise in home prices and household debt have left lingering fears that the debt burden will be a drag on economic growth, and that a major fall in home prices could create asset quality issues for the country’s banks.
Korea’s Hanjin Shipping entered receivership in August 2016 after creditors refused it much-needed support. Hanjin is the most prominent casualty of the recent global shipping downturn. Yet, woes in the industry are not specific to Korea: three Japanese shippers have merged, and Taiwan announced a $1.9 billion bailout for its shipping industry since Hanjin’s episode. Korea and other export-oriented Asian economies will remain vulnerable to persistent shipping weakness as global trade and China’s slowdown persist.
Pakistan’s recent MSCI upgrade highlights one path for frontier financial market development. While stock index categorization may serve to legitimize a market and bestow prestige, it is not necessarily the best indicator for investor sentiment. Global investors consider a broad range of indicators in considering where to deploy their capital. For frontier and emerging markets conducting financial market reform, the challenge is more complex than an index upgrade might imply.
In the final episode of Financial Inclusion & Beyond, your series hosts take a look back at key themes and takeaways from our conversations.
Our Pacific Exchanges team recently hosted a special Financial Inclusion and Beyond live virtual event moderated by Sean Creehan, the team’s lead for financial health and inclusion, that explored lessons from around the world in the use of technology and public policy to build more inclusive financial systems and drive financial health. Regular listeners of the podcast will recognize these voices from their episodes throughout the season; the live virtual event allowed them to discuss how they were managing the challenges to inclusion posed by the COVID pandemic.
In episode four of our series Financial Inclusion & Beyond, we spoke with José Quiñonez, the founding chief executive officer of Mission Asset Fund (MAF). José talked to us about how MAF is helping those that have typically been left out get integrated into the formal financial system. MAF is drawing on the rich tradition of lending circles to help the low-income and immigrant communities develop a credit history and join the financial system.
In episode two of our series Financial Inclusion & Beyond, we spoke with Greta Bull, the chief executive officer of CGAP, an expert in development finance, primarily focused on small and medium enterprise finance, microfinance, and digital financial services. We discuss the history of financial inclusion efforts around the world and the evolution of the financial inclusion movement, the micro and macro effects of inclusion, and lessons learned from various efforts around the globe.
Today we begin a new series, Financial Inclusion & Beyond, an exploration of what we can learn from global efforts to build a more inclusive financial system. We begin with San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly and talk about why the Fed cares about financial health and inclusion, how we’re engaging and learning from a community of subject matter experts and the general public, and the significant work ahead of us.
In this episode of Rethinking Asia, we spoke with Chad Bown, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Chad is an expert on trade, having worked on the issue at the World Bank, the White House Council of Economic Advisors, and the World Trade Organization. We discussed the recent trade disagreement between South Korea and Japan. While, rooted in the countries’ deep historical, political, and social tensions dating back to the early 20th century, the attitudes and tactics adopted in the dispute reflect broader global tensions surrounding trade.
In this episode of Rethinking Asia, Brad Setser, a senior fellow for International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, discussed the evolution and recent trends in capital flows across Asia. In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, flows were driven by current account surplus countries. Recent divergence in global interest rates, economic developments, and a search for yield have spawned a complex web of flows across the Pacific.
We continued our series on fintech in Asia with Toshio Taki, the co-founder of Money Forward, a Japanese fintech firm, and director of an association that promotes open APIs in Japan. Toshio talked about the open banking and API landscapes in Japan, comparing Japan to global peers. Toshio is pushing for greater adoption and integration of financial technology services among Japanese clients, and looking to shift Japan from its reliance on cash.
In this episode, we continue our ongoing Rethinking Asia series with Louis Kuijs, the head of Asia Economics at Oxford Economics. Louis’ career has focused on banking, macroeconomic, and policy issues in China. We spoke to Louis about the trade U.S.-China trade tiff. He shared his thoughts on economic and structural effects of evolving international trade patterns, China’s path to further integrating into the global financial system, and broader consequences for the U.S.-China relationship.
In this episode of our series Rethinking Asia, we spoke with Ken Hokugo, head of Corporate Governance and the director of Hedge Fund Investments at Japan’s Pension Fund Association, with more than $120 billion in assets under management. Ken is a strong advocate for Japanese corporate governance reform. Ken discussed the challenges Japan faces implementing corporate governance reform. Ken showed how cross-shareholdings and lack of independent directors are rooted in historic and structural factors and dampen enthusiasm for Japanese stocks.
In this next episode of our series Rethinking Asia, we pick up where we left off last episode looking at the role of debt in China’s economy. We spoke with Charlene Chu, a senior partner for China macro-financial research at Autonomous Research, an independent research firm. Well known for her analysis of China’s shadow banking industry, Charlene previously was a senior director covering Chinese financial institutions at Fitch Ratings.
In the next two episodes of our series Rethinking Asia, we look at the issue of China’s rising debt. In this first episode, we spoke with Yukon Huang, a senior fellow with the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Yukon walked us through the recent growth and composition of China’s debt, and why he is more worried about the structural issues behind the debt than the overall level.
In this episode of Rethinking Asia, we spoke with Frederic Neumann, Managing Director and Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC. Our exchange began with the complex economic dynamics at play between China and ASEAN members. We learned why intra-Asian trade is expected to increase as more trade agreements are signed within Asia, and how Belt and Road investment can best help Southeast Asian economies.
In this episode, we interviewed Simone di Castri, the Managing Director of the RegTech for Regulators Accelerator (R²A). R²A is a new initiative to help financial authorities harness innovative technologies and advance promising RegTech solutions. Simone described R²A’s collaboration with financial authorities in Mexico and the Philippines is helping central banks better understand markets and customer needs in data-rich environments.
In this episode, we interviewed David Hardoon, the Chief Data Officer of the Monetary Authority of Singapore. We spoke with him about the innovative uses of machine learning and big data among banks and the financial system. We covered why regulators and institutions must be concerned with the ethical use of data in new AI applications, and how algorithms can help or hinder financial inclusion.
In this episode, we interviewed our colleague Sean Creehan, a senior analyst in the Country Analysis Unit. We asked him about a recent paper he wrote on the role of small businesses in Asia. We covered why SMEs receive a disproportionately small share of credit from the financial system, and how fintech and new innovations can boost SME financial access and overall economic growth.
In the fourth episode of Rethinking Asia, we interviewed Matthew Goodman, the William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). At CSIS, he leads the Reconnecting Asia program, which tracks how infrastructure is shaping economic and geopolitical realities in Asia. Our discussion touched on Asia’s huge demand for new infrastructure, the complex geopolitical tensions among regional and multilateral actors, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
In the second episode of our series Rethinking Asia, we spoke with Manoj Pradhan of Talking Heads Macro in London. He’s an expert in the relationship between demographics and capital markets, looking at how aging and labor force changes impact everything from global interest rates and wages to inequality. Prior to his current role, he worked as a macroeconomist at Morgan Stanley.
Today we launch a new series, Rethinking Asia, as we consider noteworthy and unusual trends in Asian finance and economics. In our first episode, we sat down with Jesper Koll, head of Japan at WisdomTree, a global asset manager. In our conversation, Jesper discusses in depth the history and forces behind Japan’s distinction as a safe haven for global investors. He explains why assets like the yen and Japanese government bonds rally during periods of regional or global turmoil.
Continuing our series on the Asian financial crisis, we spoke with Changyong Rhee, Director of Asia Pacific Department at the International Monetary Fund. He provides a unique perspective on how the Asian financial crisis impacted South Korea and how Asian economies have evolved since the crisis.
