ETC: Economic Trends & Conditions

A periodic overview of national and regional economic issues of relevance to financial institutions.

This publication was discontinued as of September 2012. Visit the Reserve Bank's Economic Research Publications page for current economic data, analysis, and commentary.

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2012

ETC Economic Trends and Conditions: September 2012 Edition

Posted September 2012

Recent data indicate that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months. Amid slow job growth, sluggish business investment, and subdued inflation, the FOMC moved to provide additional monetary stimulus at its September meeting.

ETC Economic Trends and Conditions: August 2012 Edition

Posted August 2012

Recent data have generally disappointed and suggest some loss of momentum in the ongoing economic recovery. Manufacturing activity, one of the bright spots so far in the recovery, is cooling, and a recent increase in the saving rate suggests that consumers may have become more cautious. In line with the tepid outlook for growth, unemployment is expected to decline very gradually to slightly below 8% by the end of 2013.

ETC Economic Trends and Conditions: June 2012 Edition

Posted June 2012

After growing at a fairly strong pace at the end of last year, real GDP has decelerated. Some of the slowdown is probably due to temporary factors, however, a broad range of economic indicators for the second quarter has come in softer than we expected.

ETC Economic Trends and Conditions: May 2012 Edition

Posted May 2012

In the early stages of past recoveries, residential construction made significant contributions. This time, several years after the Great Recession ended, housing remains deeply depressed. Outside housing, however, the recent economic news has generally been a bit better than expected.

ETC Economic Trends and Conditions: March 2012 Edition

Posted March 2012

Recent data on the economy have been mixed. While labor market conditions continued to improve in February, some other data releases suggested softening. In particular, personal consumption expenditures have been relatively flat since October 2011.

ETC Economic Trends and Conditions: February 2012 Edition

Posted February 2012

The Twelfth District economy continued to grow at a moderate pace during the reporting period of late November through the end of December.

2011

ETC Economic Trends and Conditions: December 2011 Edition

Posted December 2011

Incoming data have generally been better than expected over the past month, suggesting that the U.S. economy continues to grow at a moderate pace. Meanwhile, conditions continue to fare moderately worse in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District than in the nation as a whole, with unemployment rates in many District states remaining well above the national unemployment rate.

ETC Economic Trends and Conditions: November 2011 Edition

Posted November 2011

Recent data have been somewhat better than expected, helping ease concerns that the economy may be stalling. We expect that real GDP will grow moderately through the end of next year. Such slow growth is unlikely to push down the unemployment rate this year, and we anticipate only modest declines next year. There are some serious downside risks to this outlook.

ETC Economic Trends and Conditions: October 2011 Edition

Posted October 2011

The March earthquake and tsunami in Japan disrupted U.S. production in the auto and a few other manufacturing industries, which reduced second-quarter growth but probably increased growth in the third quarter, as idled production started coming back on line and extra shifts were added to bring inventories back to normal levels. Meanwhile, conditions continue to fare moderately worse in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District than in the nation as a whole.

ETC Economic Trends and Conditions: August 2011 Edition

Posted August 2011

Recent economic news has been disappointing, confirming that the economy has been growing much less quickly than was expected earlier in the year. The easing of some of the economic headwinds should allow growth to pick up in coming quarters, though evidence suggests that some of the recent weakness is persistent. Meanwhile, conditions continue to fare moderately worse in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District than in the nation as a whole.

ETC Economic Trends and Conditions: June 2011 Edition

Posted June 2011

Several temporary factors helped pushed down first-quarter GDP growth. However, the winding down of these temporary factors should allow GDP growth to improve in the third quarter. Conditions continue to fare moderately worse in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District than in the nation as a whole, with unemployment rates in many District states remaining well above the national unemployment rate. Although, District unemployment rates have shown considerable declines in recent months.

ETC Economic Trends and Conditions: May 2011 Edition

Posted May 2011

Although recent economic news has been disappointing, much of the first-quarter weakness appears to reflect transitory factors, including harsh winter weather at the start of the year. The underlying pace of economic recovery appears intact and we expect real GDP to increase 3½ to 4% over the next year.

ETC Economic Trends and Conditions: March 2011 Edition

Posted March 2011

Data suggest that the economy is gradually improving, albeit with a bit less momentum than previously projected. Furthermore, conditions continue to fare moderately worse in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District than in the nation as a whole, with unemployment rates in many District states remaining well above the national unemployment rate.

ETC Economic Trends and Conditions: February 2011 Edition

Posted February 2011

Economic Trends & Conditions, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, provides a monthly summary of employment and housing data at both the national and district levels. The report addresses topics such as GDP, inflation, the Beige Book, lending activity, and credit activity.