Serving the public with innovative research and analysis
Luiz Oliveira accepted NPR Planet Money’s December Beigie award on behalf of the SF Fed for the 12th District’s December 2021 Beige Book. The Beige Book includes anecdotal reports of businesses and community leaders throughout the country. This is the first time that the SF Fed has received this informal award.
Daniel Wilson, vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated his views on the current economy and the outlook as of December 2, 2021.
The Federal Reserve adopted average inflation targeting as part of its long-run monetary strategy framework in 2020. This strategy allows inflation to rise and fall such that it averages 2% over time. Analysis shows that a version of average inflation targeting that is partly forward-looking—that is, one that responds in part to expected future inflation—could have improved economic outcomes in the recovery from the financial crisis of 2008, as well as substantially reduced the uncertainty around economic outcomes.
Japanese realized and expected inflation has been below the Bank of Japan’s two percent target for many years. We use the exogenous COVID-19 pandemic shock to examine the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policy responses for elevating inflation expectations from an arbitrage-free term structure model of nominal and real yields. We find that monetary and fiscal policy announcements during this period failed to lift inflation expectations, which instead declined notably and are projected to only slowly revert back to levels far below the announced target. Hence, our results illustrate the challenges faced in raising well-anchored low inflation expectations.
The China Cyclical Activity Tracker, China CAT, is an alternative measure of China’s economic growth based on research in Fernald, Hsu, and Spiegel (2019).
COVID-19 Forecasts by County projects future infection growth rates for various horizons using near real-time data on social distancing behavior, weather, vaccinations, and confirmed COVID-19 cases per capita. The forecasts are based on the estimated relationship between transmission factors and subsequent infection growth over the pandemic to date.
Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation divides components of core personal consumption expenditures according to whether they move in tandem with economic cycles or are independent of the state of the overall economy.
The Daily News Sentiment Index is a high frequency measure of U.S. economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles.
Inflation Sensitivity to COVID-19 divides core personal consumption expenditures inflation into components that are sensitive and insensitive to the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic.
PCE Inflation Dispersion statistics present a more detailed summary of the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCEPI), a measure of U.S. inflation. Included are measures of the distribution of price changes across categories and diffusion indices.
Total Factor Productivity (TFP) presents a real-time, quarterly data series for the U.S. business sector, adjusted for variations in factor utilization—labor effort and capital’s workweek.
The Treasury yield premium model decomposes nominal bond yields of various maturities into three components: expectations of the average future short-term interest rate, a term premium, and a model residual.
The Wage Rigidity Meter offers a closer examination of the annual wage changes of U.S. workers that have not changed jobs over the year.
This page provides estimates of weather-adjusted employment change in the United States for the past six months. The estimates are aggregated from county-level estimates of weather’s employment effects, which were derived from a county-level analysis of the short-run effects of unusual weather on employment growth.