Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: FRBSF Economic Letter https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/ Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience. en-us https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0.4 201690440 What’s Behind the Declining Trend Unemployment Rate? https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/08/whats-behind-declining-trend-unemployment-rate/ Mon, 24 Aug 2026 17:00:00 -0700 "Greeshma Avaradi", "Andreas Hornstein", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak" https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/08/whats-behind-declining-trend-unemployment-rate/ 397670 Assessing a Medium-Run Natural Rate of Interest https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/08/assessing-medium-run-natural-rate-of-interest/ Mon, 17 Aug 2026 17:00:00 -0700 "Greeshma Avaradi", "Vasco C\u00fardia", "Andreas Hornstein", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak" https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/08/assessing-medium-run-natural-rate-of-interest/ 392393 Financial Markets, Oil Prices, and Supply-Side Risks https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/08/financial-markets-oil-prices-and-supply-side-risks/ Mon, 10 Aug 2026 17:00:00 -0700 "Greeshma Avaradi", "Vasco C\u00fardia", "Andreas Hornstein", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Thomas M. Mertens", "Wesley Wasserburger" https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/08/financial-markets-oil-prices-and-supply-side-risks/ 387163 Job-Finding Anomalies of the Current Expansion https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/08/job-finding-anomalies-of-current-expansion/ Mon, 03 Aug 2026 17:00:00 -0700 "Greeshma Avaradi", "Vasco C\u00fardia", "Ingrid Chen", "Andreas Hornstein", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Thomas M. Mertens", "Riva Mikhlin", "Wesley Wasserburger" https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/08/job-finding-anomalies-of-current-expansion/ 381888 Firms’ Inflation Expectations During the Pandemic-Era Surge https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/07/firms-inflation-expectations-during-pandemic-era-surge/ Mon, 13 Jul 2026 17:00:00 -0700 "Greeshma Avaradi", "Vasco C\u00fardia", "Ingrid Chen", "Ina Hajdini", "Andreas Hornstein", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Simar Malhotra", "Thomas M. Mertens", "Riva Mikhlin", "Timo Reinelt", "Wesley Wasserburger" https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/07/firms-inflation-expectations-during-pandemic-era-surge/ 364587 Using Inflation Shock Patterns to Help Forecast Inflation https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/07/using-inflation-shock-patterns-to-help-forecast-inflation/ Mon, 06 Jul 2026 17:00:00 -0700 "Greeshma Avaradi", "Vasco C\u00fardia", "Ingrid Chen", "Ina Hajdini", "Andreas Hornstein", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Kevin J. Lansing", "Simar Malhotra", "Thomas M. Mertens", "Riva Mikhlin", "Timo Reinelt", "Adam Shapiro", "Wesley Wasserburger" https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/07/using-inflation-shock-patterns-to-help-forecast-inflation/ 359010 Calibrating Monetary Policy https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/06/calibrating-monetary-policy/ Mon, 29 Jun 2026 17:00:00 -0700 "Greeshma Avaradi", "Regis Barnichon", "Vasco C\u00fardia", "Ingrid Chen", "Ina Hajdini", "Andreas Hornstein", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Kevin J. Lansing", "Simar Malhotra", "Thomas M. Mertens", "Riva Mikhlin", "Timo Reinelt", "Adam Shapiro", "Aayush Singh", "Wesley Wasserburger" https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/06/calibrating-monetary-policy/ 353643 Central Bank Bond Purchases and the Price of Safety https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/06/central-bank-bond-purchases-and-price-of-safety/ Mon, 22 Jun 2026 17:00:00 -0700 "Greeshma Avaradi", "Regis Barnichon", "Vasco C\u00fardia", "Ingrid Chen", "Jens H. E. Christensen", "Ina Hajdini", "Andreas Hornstein", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Kevin J. Lansing", "Simar Malhotra", "Thomas M. Mertens", "Riva Mikhlin", "Nikola Mirkov", "Timo Reinelt", "Adam Shapiro", "Aayush Singh", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Xin Zhang" https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/06/central-bank-bond-purchases-and-price-of-safety/ 347896 How Labor Force Participation Has Diverged Across Genders https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/06/how-labor-force-participation-has-diverged-across-genders/ Mon, 01 Jun 2026 17:00:00 -0700 "Greeshma Avaradi", "Regis Barnichon", "Vasco C\u00fardia", "Ingrid Chen", "Jens H. E. Christensen", "Ina Hajdini", "Andreas Hornstein", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Kevin J. Lansing", "Simar Malhotra", "Thomas M. Mertens", "Riva Mikhlin", "Nikola Mirkov", "Timo Reinelt", "Adam Shapiro", "Aayush Singh", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Xin Zhang" https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/06/how-labor-force-participation-has-diverged-across-genders/ 330853 Have We Entered an Era of High Productivity Growth? https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/have-we-entered-era-of-high-productivity-growth/ Tue, 26 May 2026 17:00:00 -0700 "Hamza Abdelrahman", "Greeshma Avaradi", "Regis Barnichon", "Vasco C\u00fardia", "Ingrid Chen", "Jens H. E. Christensen", "Andrew Foerster", "Ina Hajdini", "Andreas Hornstein", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Kevin J. Lansing", "Simar Malhotra", "Thomas M. Mertens", "Riva Mikhlin", "Nikola Mirkov", "Timo Reinelt", "Adam Shapiro", "Aayush Singh", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Xin Zhang" https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/have-we-entered-era-of-high-productivity-growth/ 325165