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    <title>Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: FRBSF Economic Letter</title>
    <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/</link>
    <description>Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.</description>
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            <title>AI-Powered Algorithmic Pricing and Monetary Policy</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/ai-powered-algorithmic-pricing-and-monetary-policy/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[The business practice of adjusting prices using algorithms powered by artificial intelligence—known as AI pricing—has grown rapidly and spread across many sectors in the economy. Unlike traditional price setting, AI pricing uses predictive analysis of large data sets to incorporate real-time changes in supply and demand conditions into pricing decisions. This enables businesses to adjust prices more quickly in response to unexpected changes in market conditions and monetary policy. Industry-level evidence suggests that price adjustments are more sensitive to monetary policy in sectors where AI pricing is more prevalent.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Greeshma Avaradi", "Zheng Liu", "Steven Zhao"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">314602</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>What Do Financial Officers Predict for Price Growth?</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/what-do-financial-officers-predict-for-price-growth/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Survey responses from chief financial officers and other financial decisionmakers yield a new measure of inflation expectations. Rather than asking about expectations for overall inflation, this survey asks about expected price growth at each respondent’s business. Aggregating survey responses provides an economy-wide indicator that tracks well with actual core consumer price index inflation. Survey responses collected before and during the recent oil shock imply that core inflation could remain elevated this year if the historical relationship between financial officer expectations and realized core inflation persist.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Greeshma Avaradi", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Steven Zhao"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/what-do-financial-officers-predict-for-price-growth/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">309434</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Regionalism at the Federal Reserve: Many Voices, One Purpose</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/04/regionalism-at-federal-reserve-many-voices-one-purpose/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Public institutions like the Federal Reserve must evolve to meet new challenges and allow for new possibilities. At the Fed, we have modernized and innovated over time, always grounding ourselves in our founding principles—to be regional in our work, independent in our thinking, and accountable to those we serve. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce, in St. George, Utah, on April 8.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 13 Apr 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Greeshma Avaradi", "Mary C. Daly", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Steven Zhao"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/04/regionalism-at-federal-reserve-many-voices-one-purpose/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">295635</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Monetary Policy Through the Lens of Market-Based Inflation</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/04/monetary-policy-through-lens-of-market-based-inflation/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Some goods and services prices are not directly observed and must be indirectly derived for measuring inflation. This nonmarket-based inflation category has been an important factor keeping headline inflation elevated over the past two years. Because indirectly deriving prices introduces measurement uncertainty, one monetary policy approach would be to focus solely on directly observable prices. Applying this through a well-known monetary policy rule suggests a notably lower federal funds rate. However, other rules that account for the implicit uncertainty that policymakers face would leave the federal funds rate essentially unchanged. ]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 06 Apr 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Greeshma Avaradi", "Mary C. Daly", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Sylvain Leduc", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Steven Zhao"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/04/monetary-policy-through-lens-of-market-based-inflation/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">295341</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Fed Communications and Inflation Expectations</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/03/fed-communications-and-inflation-expectations/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Monetary policy surprises—changes in various interest rates around central bank communication events—reflect new information in monetary policy actions and communications. For the Federal Reserve, surprises around Federal Open Market Committee statements and post-meeting press conferences have, in recent years, often led to meaningful market surprises that capture policy news. Event-study analysis provides new market-based evidence of monetary policy transmission: Hawkish policy surprises lower market-based inflation expectations, while dovish surprises raise them, in line with standard monetary transmission. These effects are especially strong at longer horizons.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Greeshma Avaradi", "Michael Bauer", "Mary C. Daly", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Sylvain Leduc", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Steven Zhao"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/03/fed-communications-and-inflation-expectations/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">295085</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>The Effects of Tariffs on the Components of Inflation</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/03/effects-of-tariffs-on-components-of-inflation/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Tariffs are usually applied to imported goods—but in an interconnected economy, their effects can be felt in the prices of other goods and services. Estimates using data across multiple advanced economies show that inflation declines right after tariffs are imposed. This initial decline reflects decreased demand, visible in declining prices for energy such as oil, a primary commodity typically exempt from tariffs. After the initial tariff shock, inflation gradually picks up, driven first by goods and later by services, one of the more persistent categories of inflation.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 30 Mar 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Greeshma Avaradi", "Michael Bauer", "Mary C. Daly", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Oscar Jorda", "Sylvain Leduc", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Fernanda Nechio", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Steven Zhao"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">295062</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>The AI Moment? Possibilities, Productivity, and Policy</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/02/ai-moment-possibilities-productivity-policy/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[AI adoption and use are still evolving, and the technology itself is changing rapidly. What we know about AI and its impact on productivity growth and the economy remains uncertain. Transformations take time. We need to look for early indicators in the data and in business to get monetary policy right. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Silicon Valley Leadership Group and San Jose State University in San Jose, California, on February 17.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:00:00 -0800</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Greeshma Avaradi", "Michael Bauer", "Mary C. Daly", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Oscar Jorda", "Sylvain Leduc", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Fernanda Nechio", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Steven Zhao"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/02/ai-moment-possibilities-productivity-policy/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">263062</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Unauthorized Immigration Effects on Local Labor Markets</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/02/unauthorized-immigration-effects-on-local-labor-markets/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[The large increase and subsequent decline of unauthorized immigrant workers in recent years have raised questions about the impact of these changes on local labor markets across the United States. New analysis linking immigration data with employment data for specific areas suggests that the rapid rise in unauthorized immigrant worker flows increased local employment roughly one-for-one. Extending the analysis to the industry level further suggests that the slowdown of net immigration had a large negative impact on local employment, particularly for construction and manufacturing.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Tue, 17 Feb 2026 18:00:00 -0800</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Greeshma Avaradi", "Michael Bauer", "Mary C. Daly", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Oscar Jorda", "Sylvain Leduc", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Fernanda Nechio", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Daniel Wilson", "Steven Zhao", "Xiaoqing Zhou"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/02/unauthorized-immigration-effects-on-local-labor-markets/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">262898</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Is the PPPLF Still Encouraging Small Business Lending?</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/02/is-ppplf-still-encouraging-small-business-lending/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[The Federal Reserve designed its Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility to ease liquidity issues and support small business lending during the pandemic. The liquidity facility allowed banks to pledge Paycheck Protection Program loans as risk-free collateral during the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysis shows that, although the program has essentially ended, the positive effects on small business lending have persisted, particularly among small banks with lower liquidity, in keeping with the intent of the program.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 09 Feb 2026 18:00:00 -0800</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Greeshma Avaradi", "Michael Bauer", "Mary C. Daly", "Lora Dufresne", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Oscar Jorda", "Sylvain Leduc", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Fernanda Nechio", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Mark M. Spiegel", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Daniel Wilson", "Steven Zhao", "Xiaoqing Zhou"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">262741</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Housing Affordability and Housing Demand</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/02/housing-affordability-and-housing-demand/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Understanding housing demand dynamics through two indicators, income growth and population growth, provides important insights into housing affordability. Research shows that average U.S. income growth is strongly related to rising house prices but is essentially unrelated to changes in the supply of housing units across metropolitan areas. Instead, greater population growth translates into greater housing supply growth, with housing supply generally outpacing population, even in expensive markets. Thus, differences in affordability across areas may reflect differences in the growth and type of housing demand rather than different housing supply constraints.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 02 Feb 2026 18:00:00 -0800</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Greeshma Avaradi", "Michael Bauer", "Mary C. Daly", "Lora Dufresne", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Oscar Jorda", "Sylvain Leduc", "Zheng Liu", "Schuyler Louie", "Simar Malhotra", "John Mondragon", "Rami Najjar", "Fernanda Nechio", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Mark M. Spiegel", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Johannes Wieland", "Daniel Wilson", "Steven Zhao", "Xiaoqing Zhou"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">256217</post-id>        </item>
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