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    <title>Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: FRBSF Economic Letter</title>
    <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/</link>
    <description>Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.</description>
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            <title>Pricing Inflation Swaps in the Japanese Bond Market</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/10/pricing-inflation-swaps-in-japanese-bond-market/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Japanese government bond markets present a puzzling pattern. Unlike U.S. markets, where bond liquidity and other premiums have been shown to drive a wedge between prices of nominal U.S. Treasury securities and those of matching portfolios comprised of inflation-indexed bonds and derivative contracts, analysis shows no such wedge for similar asset combinations in Japanese markets.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Wed, 07 Oct 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Jens H. E. Christensen", "Mizla Shrestha", "Mark M. Spiegel"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">424834</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>What Do Financial Officers Predict for the Labor Market?</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/10/what-do-financial-officers-predict-for-labor-market/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Business leader surveys can be an important and reliable source for insights into future labor market conditions, particularly for expected wage growth. Survey responses from financial executives regarding their expectations for wages at their firms have closely tracked subsequent actual U.S. nominal wage growth since 2002, outperforming household survey projections in their accuracy. Estimates for this year point to continued nominal wage growth in 2026. Respondents also expect employment growth to moderate, though their projections reflect uncertainty regarding potential gains in workers’ purchasing power.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 05 Oct 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Jens H. E. Christensen", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Simar Malhotra", "Mizla Shrestha", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Mark M. Spiegel"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">424761</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Effects of Oil Supply Disruptions on Oil Exporters, Importers</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/09/effects-of-oil-supply-disruptions-on-oil-exporters-importers/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Economies may face different challenges during oil supply disruptions depending on whether they primarily import or export oil.  Comparing the effects of past disruptions in Canada, a large net oil exporter, and the euro area, a large oil importer, suggests that both experienced rising inflation and declining economic activity. This reflects that the energy sector accounts for a small share of GDP, while oil prices affect global demand and nonenergy sectors. Thus, benefits to the energy sector from higher oil prices were outweighed by the costs to the broader economy.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Wed, 30 Sep 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Jens H. E. Christensen", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Simar Malhotra", "Wataru Miyamoto", "Thuy Lan Nguyen", "Dmitriy Sergeyev", "Mizla Shrestha", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Mark M. Spiegel"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/09/effects-of-oil-supply-disruptions-on-oil-exporters-importers/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">424692</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Stablecoin Issuers’ Growing Appetite for Treasury Securities</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/09/stablecoin-issuers-growing-appetite-for-treasury-securities/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Over the past 20 years, the share of U.S. debt held by foreigners has fallen substantially. Demand for U.S. debt has partly shifted towards private investors, including from novel sources, particularly stablecoin issuers. The increase in stablecoins’ holdings of Treasury securities has helped partly offset the demand decline from some foreign governments. While their share of holdings is relatively small, if the trend continues, stablecoin issuers’ demand for short-term Treasury securities could nearly double to a more noteworthy $400 billion by the end of 2030.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Jens H. E. Christensen", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Sylvain Leduc", "Simar Malhotra", "Wataru Miyamoto", "Thuy Lan Nguyen", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Aleisha Sawyer", "Dmitriy Sergeyev", "Mizla Shrestha", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Mark M. Spiegel"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/09/stablecoin-issuers-growing-appetite-for-treasury-securities/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">419449</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>How AI Adoption Might Affect Bank Lending</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/09/how-ai-adoption-might-affect-bank-lending/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Commercial banks have led the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in recent years. Evidence suggests that banks using AI more intensively tend to have higher returns on assets and higher shares of problem loans. Increased AI usage is also associated with declines in the shares of small business lending. This pattern suggests that AI helps banks in processing hard data, such as credit scores and financial statements, and issuing fewer small business loans that rely more on soft information, such as personal and business relationships.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 21 Sep 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Greeshma Avaradi", "Jens H. E. Christensen", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Sylvain Leduc", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Wataru Miyamoto", "Thuy Lan Nguyen", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Aleisha Sawyer", "Dmitriy Sergeyev", "Mizla Shrestha", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Mark M. Spiegel"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/09/how-ai-adoption-might-affect-bank-lending/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">414118</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Consumer Vibe Check: Gas Prices and Inflation Expectations</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/08/consumer-vibe-check-gas-prices-and-inflation-expectations/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[According to household surveys, inflation expectations tend to move together with expectations for gasoline price changes. The relationship is not symmetrical, though: Inflation expectations rise when households revise up their outlook for gas price growth but change little when they revise it down. This pattern is strongest among lower-income and less-educated households. Analysis also suggests that increases in expected gas price growth are associated with greater perceived inflation uncertainty.  However, quantitatively, the evidence suggests a moderate relationship between changes in expected gasoline prices and households’ inflation expectations.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 31 Aug 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Greeshma Avaradi", "Jens H. E. Christensen", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Taerin Kim", "Sylvain Leduc", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Wataru Miyamoto", "Thuy Lan Nguyen", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Aleisha Sawyer", "Dmitriy Sergeyev", "Mizla Shrestha", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Mark M. Spiegel", "Yeji Sung"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">403119</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>What’s Behind the Declining Trend Unemployment Rate?</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/08/whats-behind-declining-trend-unemployment-rate/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[The U.S. unemployment rate has trended down for decades. Estimates after removing business cycle fluctuations show that the trend rate fell from 7.8% in 1976 to 4.8% in 2024. This decline reflects in part a more-educated and older workforce—that is, a shift in composition towards demographic groups with traditionally lower unemployment rates. It also reflects newer cohorts entering the labor force with lower unemployment rates. Projections suggest that future demographic changes will gradually lower trend unemployment about 0.4 percentage point further over the next 20 years.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Greeshma Avaradi", "Jens H. E. Christensen", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Andreas Hornstein", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Sylvain Leduc", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Wataru Miyamoto", "Thuy Lan Nguyen", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Aleisha Sawyer", "Dmitriy Sergeyev", "Mizla Shrestha", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Mark M. Spiegel", "Yeji Sung"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">397670</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Assessing a Medium-Run Natural Rate of Interest</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/08/assessing-medium-run-natural-rate-of-interest/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[The natural rate of interest is the inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full capacity. Although this rate helps gauge the economy’s health, empirical estimates of it are imprecise and volatile. A medium-run measure that focuses on responsiveness to persistent economic factors while removing short-term volatility may provide more reliable guidance. Analysis suggests that monetary policy using this measure could stabilize inflation and achieve maximum employment more effectively than standard benchmarks. Current medium-run estimates suggest that monetary policy is accommodative, although uncertainty around this estimate remains high.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 17 Aug 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Greeshma Avaradi", "Vasco C\u00fardia", "Jens H. E. Christensen", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Andreas Hornstein", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Sylvain Leduc", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Wataru Miyamoto", "Thuy Lan Nguyen", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Aleisha Sawyer", "Dmitriy Sergeyev", "Mizla Shrestha", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Mark M. Spiegel", "Yeji Sung"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">392393</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Financial Markets, Oil Prices, and Supply-Side Risks</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/08/financial-markets-oil-prices-and-supply-side-risks/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[The relation between stocks and bonds indicates whether supply or demand shocks dominate the risks to economic activity. After two decades of concerns primarily about changes in demand, the stock-bond correlation recently flipped, suggesting that the perceived source of risk to the economy has shifted towards supply shocks. Other financial correlations, such as the stock-oil correlation, also changed accordingly and thus agree with this interpretation. In line with this evidence, financial market pricing now indicates that elevated oil prices and potential inflation are prominent sources of risk.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 10 Aug 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Greeshma Avaradi", "Vasco C\u00fardia", "Jens H. E. Christensen", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Andreas Hornstein", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Sylvain Leduc", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Thomas M. Mertens", "Wataru Miyamoto", "Thuy Lan Nguyen", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Aleisha Sawyer", "Dmitriy Sergeyev", "Mizla Shrestha", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Mark M. Spiegel", "Yeji Sung", "Wesley Wasserburger"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">387163</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Job-Finding Anomalies of the Current Expansion</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/08/job-finding-anomalies-of-current-expansion/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Job-finding rates have declined over the past three years for people who are unemployed or are out of the labor force. Analysis shows that the decline in job finding for unemployed people has been pronounced for prime-age and college-educated individuals, while the decline in job finding for people who are out of the labor force has been driven by younger and less-educated individuals. These demographic patterns differ from job-finding rates during typical economic expansions and imply both a cooling and a restructuring within the labor market.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Greeshma Avaradi", "Vasco C\u00fardia", "Ingrid Chen", "Jens H. E. Christensen", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Andreas Hornstein", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Sylvain Leduc", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Thomas M. Mertens", "Riva Mikhlin", "Wataru Miyamoto", "Thuy Lan Nguyen", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Aleisha Sawyer", "Dmitriy Sergeyev", "Mizla Shrestha", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Mark M. Spiegel", "Yeji Sung", "Wesley Wasserburger"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">381888</post-id>        </item>
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