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    <title>Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: FRBSF Economic Letter</title>
    <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/</link>
    <description>Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.</description>
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            <title>Firms’ Inflation Expectations During the Pandemic-Era Surge</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/07/firms-inflation-expectations-during-pandemic-era-surge/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Inflation expectations among businesses can affect how they set current prices. Firms’ expectations diverged from those of professional forecasters during the pandemic-era inflation surge and moved closer to household expectations. Analyzing firms’ survey data from 2018 to 2025 reveals three main patterns behind this shift: Businesses became more sensitive to current inflation perceptions, their longer-term expectations temporarily drifted up, and their perceptions of the Federal Reserve’s inflation goal increased. However, when inflation eventually moderated, the survey data show that firms’ inflation expectations largely returned to their characteristics from before the pandemic.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Ina Hajdini", "Simar Malhotra", "Timo Reinelt"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">364587</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Using Inflation Shock Patterns to Help Forecast Inflation</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/07/using-inflation-shock-patterns-to-help-forecast-inflation/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[A new indicator—the Inflation Shock Momentum Index—can help identify emerging inflationary or disinflationary pressures in real time. The index tracks the shares of consumer spending categories that are experiencing consecutive positive or negative monthly inflation shocks, allowing detection of shifts in the underlying inflation environment. The index improves inflation forecasts at one-year to three-year horizons and responds to macroeconomic shocks in line with accepted theory. Recent index readings have fluctuated above and below zero, indicating that inflation may remain near current levels in the near to medium term.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Ina Hajdini", "Kevin J. Lansing", "Simar Malhotra", "Timo Reinelt", "Adam Shapiro"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/07/using-inflation-shock-patterns-to-help-forecast-inflation/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">359010</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Calibrating Monetary Policy</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/06/calibrating-monetary-policy/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[The new SF Fed Policy Calibration Tool is designed to help construct a monetary policy path that aligns with one’s views of the economy and policy objectives. Applying the tool to recent tariff increases shows that preferred policy paths vary depending on one’s assessment of the economic effects of tariffs. If tariffs predominantly affect demand, more policy accommodation may be warranted; if they predominantly affect supply, less accommodation may be appropriate. The high uncertainty surrounding these effects implies a wide range of possible scenarios for the best course of action.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 29 Jun 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Regis Barnichon", "Ina Hajdini", "Kevin J. Lansing", "Simar Malhotra", "Timo Reinelt", "Adam Shapiro", "Aayush Singh"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">353643</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Central Bank Bond Purchases and the Price of Safety</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/06/central-bank-bond-purchases-and-price-of-safety/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Central banks purchase bonds and other securities with their own reserves. In doing so, they expand the supply of safe assets in the economy, which should lower the premium investors are willing to pay for safety. Analysis confirms that bond purchases by the European Central Bank in 2015–2021 lowered safety premiums for investors, partially offsetting declines in bond yields as much as 30 basis points. The results suggest that such transactions essentially reduce a central bank’s effectiveness in using asset purchases to lower interest rates in safe bond markets.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 22 Jun 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Regis Barnichon", "Jens H. E. Christensen", "Ina Hajdini", "Kevin J. Lansing", "Simar Malhotra", "Nikola Mirkov", "Timo Reinelt", "Adam Shapiro", "Aayush Singh", "Xin Zhang"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/06/central-bank-bond-purchases-and-price-of-safety/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">347896</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>How Labor Force Participation Has Diverged Across Genders</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/06/how-labor-force-participation-has-diverged-across-genders/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[U.S. labor force participation rose for decades until the mid-1990s but has fallen steadily since then. This general pattern masks different paths for men and women in the workforce. Aging and rising education explain much of the long-run changes but do not account for the divergence by gender. Men’s trend participation has fallen steadily since the late 1970s, while women’s participation rose through 2000 before flattening. The difference mainly reflects younger male cohorts participating less than earlier ones, whereas younger female cohorts—especially those with more education—have higher participation.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Greeshma Avaradi", "Regis Barnichon", "Jens H. E. Christensen", "Ina Hajdini", "Andreas Hornstein", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Kevin J. Lansing", "Simar Malhotra", "Nikola Mirkov", "Timo Reinelt", "Adam Shapiro", "Aayush Singh", "Xin Zhang"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/06/how-labor-force-participation-has-diverged-across-genders/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">330853</post-id>        </item>
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            <title>Have We Entered an Era of High Productivity Growth?</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/have-we-entered-era-of-high-productivity-growth/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Labor productivity gains over the past three years helped the U.S. economy expand steadily, even with near-zero employment growth. Combined with substantially increased business investment in artificial intelligence technology, these conditions have raised the question of whether the economy is entering a high-productivity growth period. Two well-known productivity measures do not yet provide strong evidence of this shift. However, recent patterns resemble the mixed signals during the early stages of the 1990s productivity surge before a sustained high-growth period materialized, giving reason for cautious optimism about future productivity growth.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Hamza Abdelrahman", "Greeshma Avaradi", "Regis Barnichon", "Jens H. E. Christensen", "Andrew Foerster", "Ina Hajdini", "Andreas Hornstein", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Kevin J. Lansing", "Simar Malhotra", "Nikola Mirkov", "Timo Reinelt", "Adam Shapiro", "Aayush Singh", "Xin Zhang"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/have-we-entered-era-of-high-productivity-growth/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">325165</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Is Optimism for Artificial Intelligence Boosting Investment?</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/is-optimism-for-artificial-intelligence-boosting-investment/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[U.S. business spending related to artificial intelligence (AI) grew substantially in 2025 among publicly traded firms, which account for the bulk of overall investment. Analyzing sentiment data from quarterly company earnings calls can help infer current and evolving optimism towards AI. Public firm data show growth in capital spending and research and development funding has come entirely from the largest companies that are positive about AI. While market concentration among large firms raises some challenges, optimism measures suggest that AI investment will continue to contribute to future overall investment growth. ]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 18 May 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Hamza Abdelrahman", "Greeshma Avaradi", "Regis Barnichon", "Jens H. E. Christensen", "Andrew Foerster", "Ina Hajdini", "Andreas Hornstein", "Aakash Kalyani", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Kevin J. Lansing", "Huiyu Li", "Simar Malhotra", "Nikola Mirkov", "Timo Reinelt", "Adam Shapiro", "Aayush Singh", "Xin Zhang"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/is-optimism-for-artificial-intelligence-boosting-investment/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">319821</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>AI-Powered Algorithmic Pricing and Monetary Policy</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/ai-powered-algorithmic-pricing-and-monetary-policy/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[The business practice of adjusting prices using algorithms powered by artificial intelligence—known as AI pricing—has grown rapidly and spread across many sectors in the economy. Unlike traditional price setting, AI pricing uses predictive analysis of large data sets to incorporate real-time changes in supply and demand conditions into pricing decisions. This enables businesses to adjust prices more quickly in response to unexpected changes in market conditions and monetary policy. Industry-level evidence suggests that price adjustments are more sensitive to monetary policy in sectors where AI pricing is more prevalent.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Hamza Abdelrahman", "Greeshma Avaradi", "Regis Barnichon", "Jens H. E. Christensen", "Andrew Foerster", "Ina Hajdini", "Andreas Hornstein", "Aakash Kalyani", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Kevin J. Lansing", "Huiyu Li", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Nikola Mirkov", "Timo Reinelt", "Adam Shapiro", "Aayush Singh", "Xin Zhang", "Steven Zhao"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/ai-powered-algorithmic-pricing-and-monetary-policy/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">314602</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>What Do Financial Officers Predict for Price Growth?</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/what-do-financial-officers-predict-for-price-growth/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Survey responses from chief financial officers and other financial decisionmakers yield a new measure of inflation expectations. Rather than asking about expectations for overall inflation, this survey asks about expected price growth at each respondent’s business. Aggregating survey responses provides an economy-wide indicator that tracks well with actual core consumer price index inflation. Survey responses collected before and during the recent oil shock imply that core inflation could remain elevated this year if the historical relationship between financial officer expectations and realized core inflation persist.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Hamza Abdelrahman", "Greeshma Avaradi", "Regis Barnichon", "Jens H. E. Christensen", "Andrew Foerster", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Ina Hajdini", "Andreas Hornstein", "Aakash Kalyani", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Kevin J. Lansing", "Huiyu Li", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Nikola Mirkov", "Timo Reinelt", "Adam Shapiro", "Aayush Singh", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Xin Zhang", "Steven Zhao"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">309434</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Regionalism at the Federal Reserve: Many Voices, One Purpose</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/04/regionalism-at-federal-reserve-many-voices-one-purpose/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Public institutions like the Federal Reserve must evolve to meet new challenges and allow for new possibilities. At the Fed, we have modernized and innovated over time, always grounding ourselves in our founding principles—to be regional in our work, independent in our thinking, and accountable to those we serve. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce, in St. George, Utah, on April 8.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 13 Apr 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Hamza Abdelrahman", "Greeshma Avaradi", "Regis Barnichon", "Jens H. E. Christensen", "Mary C. Daly", "Andrew Foerster", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Ina Hajdini", "Andreas Hornstein", "Aakash Kalyani", "Taerin Kim", "Marianna Kudlyak", "Kevin J. Lansing", "Huiyu Li", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Nikola Mirkov", "Timo Reinelt", "Adam Shapiro", "Aayush Singh", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Xin Zhang", "Steven Zhao"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">295635</post-id>        </item>
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