Friday, February 4, 2005 Federal Reserve Bank of San FranciscoFebruary 4, 2005 Organizers: Reuven Glick, Federal Reserve Bank of San FranciscoAndrew Rose, UC BerkeleyMark Spiegel, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Agenda Download (PDF – 32kb) Conference Summary Agenda 12:00 Lunch 1:15 p.m. Welcome Remarks: Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 1:30 p.m. Introduction: Michael Dooley, UC Santa CruzPeter Garber, Deutsche Bank Papers: • The Revived Bretton Woods System: Alive and Well • Dollars and Deficits: Where Do We Go From Here? • The Cosmic Risk: An Essay on Global Imbalances and Treasuries • Asian Reserve Diversification: Does It Threaten the Pegs? • The US Current Account Deficit: Collateral for a Total Return Swap • Direct Investment, Rising Real Wages and the Absorption of Excess Labor in the Periphery • An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System 2:00 p.m. Panel 1 History: Barry Eichengreen, UC Berkeley Paper: • Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods Current Account Sustainability:Maurice Obstfeld, UC Berkeley Paper: • The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited Powerpoint: • Sustainability and the US Current Account: Dark Musings (.ppt file) Reserve Currencies, Center/Anchor Countries:Nouriel Roubini, New York University Paper: • Will the Bretton Woods 2 Regime Unravel Soon? The Risk of a Hard Landing in 2005-2006 3:30 p.m. Coffee Break 4:00 p.m. Panel 2 China:Nicholas Lardy, Institute for International EconomicsAsia ex-China:Steven Kamin, Board of Governors Paper: • The Revived Bretton Woods System: Does It Explain Developments in Non-China Developing Asia? Exchange Rates:Ronald McKinnon, Stanford University Paper: • Exchange Rates, Wages, and International Adjustment: Japan and China versus the United States US, Europe:Edwin Truman, Institute for International Economics Paper: • Budget and External Deficits: Not Twins but the Same Family • Speech: The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Euro Area (off-site) 5:45 p.m. Reception