2022-22 | November 2022
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Fiscal Stimulus Under Average Inflation Targeting
The stimulus effects of expansionary fiscal policy under average inflation targeting (AIT) depends on both monetary and fiscal policy regimes. AIT features an inflation makeup under the monetary regime, but not under the fiscal regime. In normal times, AIT amplifies the short-run fiscal multipliers under both regimes while mitigating the cumulative multiplies due to intertemporal substitution. In a zero-lower-bound (ZLB) period, AIT reduces fiscal multipliers under a monetary regime by shortening the duration of the ZLB through expected inflation makeup. Under the fiscal regime, AIT has a nonlinear effect on fiscal multipliers because of the absence of inflation makeup and the presence of a nominal wealth effect.
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Liu, Zheng, Jianjun Miao, and Dongling Su. 2022. "Fiscal Stimulus Under Average Inflation Targeting," Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2022-22. Available at https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2022-22