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Reuven Glick
Reuven Glick is an Economist Emeritus and former Group Vice President of International Research in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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FedViews: August 11, 2016
Michael Bauer, senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated his views on the current economy and the outlook as of August 11, 2016.
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FedViews: January 9, 2014
Mark Spiegel, vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, provides his views on current economic developments and the outlook.
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External Imbalances and Adjustment in the Pacific Basin: Conference Summary
This Economic Letter summarizes the papers presented at the conference on “External Imbalances and Adjustment in the Pacific Basin” held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on September 22-23, 2005, under the sponsorship of the Bank’s Center for Pacific Basin Studies.
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FedViews: January 8, 2015
Mark Spiegel, vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, states his views on the current economy and the outlook.
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Mark Spiegel
Mark Spiegel is a senior policy advisor in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention
Pacific Basin Notes. This series appears on an occasional basis. It is prepared under the auspices of the Center for Pacific Basin Monetary and Economic Studies within the FRBSF’s Economic Research Department.
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Yield Curve Responses to Introducing Negative Policy Rates
Given the low level of interest rates in many developed economies, negative interest rates could become an important policy tool for fighting future economic downturns. Because of this, it’s important to carefully examine evidence from economies whose central banks have already deployed such policies. Analyzing financial market reactions to the introduction of negative interest rates shows that the entire yield curve for government bonds in those economies tends to shift lower. This suggests that negative rates may be an effective monetary policy tool to help ease financial conditions.
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When Bonds Matter: Home Bias in Goods and Assets
Recent models of international equity portfolios exhibit two potential weaknesses: (1) the structure of equilibrium equity portfolios is determined by the correlation of equity returns with real exchange rates, yet empirically equities don’t appear to be a good hedge against real exchange rate risk; (2) Equity portfolios are highly sensitive to preference parameters. This paper solves both problems. It first shows that, in more general and realistic environments, the hedging of real exchange rate risks occurs through international bond holdings since relative bond returns are strongly correlated with real exchange rate fluctuations. Equilibrium equity positions are then optimally determined by the correlation of equity returns with the return on nonfinancial wealth, conditional on the bond returns. The model delivers equilibrium portfolios that are well-behaved as a function of the underlying preference parameters. We find reasonable empirical support for the theory for G-7 countries. We are able to explain short positions in domestic currency bonds for all G-7 countries, as well as significant levels of home equity bias for the U.S., Japan, and Canada.
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Òscar Jordà
Òscar Jordà is a senior policy advisor in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.