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    <title>Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: FRBSF Economic Letter</title>
    <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/</link>
    <description>Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.</description>
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            <title>Regionalism at the Federal Reserve: Many Voices, One Purpose</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/04/regionalism-at-federal-reserve-many-voices-one-purpose/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Public institutions like the Federal Reserve must evolve to meet new challenges and allow for new possibilities. At the Fed, we have modernized and innovated over time, always grounding ourselves in our founding principles—to be regional in our work, independent in our thinking, and accountable to those we serve. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce, in St. George, Utah, on April 8.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 13 Apr 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Mary C. Daly"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">295635</post-id>        </item>
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            <title>Monetary Policy Through the Lens of Market-Based Inflation</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/04/monetary-policy-through-lens-of-market-based-inflation/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Some goods and services prices are not directly observed and must be indirectly derived for measuring inflation. This nonmarket-based inflation category has been an important factor keeping headline inflation elevated over the past two years. Because indirectly deriving prices introduces measurement uncertainty, one monetary policy approach would be to focus solely on directly observable prices. Applying this through a well-known monetary policy rule suggests a notably lower federal funds rate. However, other rules that account for the implicit uncertainty that policymakers face would leave the federal funds rate essentially unchanged. ]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 06 Apr 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Mary C. Daly", "Sylvain Leduc", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">295341</post-id>        </item>
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            <title>Fed Communications and Inflation Expectations</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/03/fed-communications-and-inflation-expectations/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Monetary policy surprises—changes in various interest rates around central bank communication events—reflect new information in monetary policy actions and communications. For the Federal Reserve, surprises around Federal Open Market Committee statements and post-meeting press conferences have, in recent years, often led to meaningful market surprises that capture policy news. Event-study analysis provides new market-based evidence of monetary policy transmission: Hawkish policy surprises lower market-based inflation expectations, while dovish surprises raise them, in line with standard monetary transmission. These effects are especially strong at longer horizons.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Michael Bauer", "Mary C. Daly", "Sylvain Leduc", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Wesley Wasserburger"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">295085</post-id>        </item>
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            <title>The Effects of Tariffs on the Components of Inflation</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/03/effects-of-tariffs-on-components-of-inflation/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Tariffs are usually applied to imported goods—but in an interconnected economy, their effects can be felt in the prices of other goods and services. Estimates using data across multiple advanced economies show that inflation declines right after tariffs are imposed. This initial decline reflects decreased demand, visible in declining prices for energy such as oil, a primary commodity typically exempt from tariffs. After the initial tariff shock, inflation gradually picks up, driven first by goods and later by services, one of the more persistent categories of inflation.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 30 Mar 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Michael Bauer", "Mary C. Daly", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Oscar Jorda", "Sylvain Leduc", "Fernanda Nechio", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Wesley Wasserburger"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">295062</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>The AI Moment? Possibilities, Productivity, and Policy</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/02/ai-moment-possibilities-productivity-policy/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[AI adoption and use are still evolving, and the technology itself is changing rapidly. What we know about AI and its impact on productivity growth and the economy remains uncertain. Transformations take time. We need to look for early indicators in the data and in business to get monetary policy right. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Silicon Valley Leadership Group and San Jose State University in San Jose, California, on February 17.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:00:00 -0800</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Michael Bauer", "Mary C. Daly", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Oscar Jorda", "Sylvain Leduc", "Fernanda Nechio", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Wesley Wasserburger"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/02/ai-moment-possibilities-productivity-policy/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">263062</post-id>        </item>
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            <title>Unauthorized Immigration Effects on Local Labor Markets</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/02/unauthorized-immigration-effects-on-local-labor-markets/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[The large increase and subsequent decline of unauthorized immigrant workers in recent years have raised questions about the impact of these changes on local labor markets across the United States. New analysis linking immigration data with employment data for specific areas suggests that the rapid rise in unauthorized immigrant worker flows increased local employment roughly one-for-one. Extending the analysis to the industry level further suggests that the slowdown of net immigration had a large negative impact on local employment, particularly for construction and manufacturing.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Tue, 17 Feb 2026 18:00:00 -0800</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Michael Bauer", "Mary C. Daly", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Oscar Jorda", "Sylvain Leduc", "Fernanda Nechio", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Daniel Wilson", "Xiaoqing Zhou"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">262898</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Is the PPPLF Still Encouraging Small Business Lending?</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/02/is-ppplf-still-encouraging-small-business-lending/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[The Federal Reserve designed its Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility to ease liquidity issues and support small business lending during the pandemic. The liquidity facility allowed banks to pledge Paycheck Protection Program loans as risk-free collateral during the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysis shows that, although the program has essentially ended, the positive effects on small business lending have persisted, particularly among small banks with lower liquidity, in keeping with the intent of the program.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 09 Feb 2026 18:00:00 -0800</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Michael Bauer", "Mary C. Daly", "Lora Dufresne", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Oscar Jorda", "Sylvain Leduc", "Fernanda Nechio", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Mark M. Spiegel", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Daniel Wilson", "Xiaoqing Zhou"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">262741</post-id>        </item>
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            <title>Housing Affordability and Housing Demand</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/02/housing-affordability-and-housing-demand/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Understanding housing demand dynamics through two indicators, income growth and population growth, provides important insights into housing affordability. Research shows that average U.S. income growth is strongly related to rising house prices but is essentially unrelated to changes in the supply of housing units across metropolitan areas. Instead, greater population growth translates into greater housing supply growth, with housing supply generally outpacing population, even in expensive markets. Thus, differences in affordability across areas may reflect differences in the growth and type of housing demand rather than different housing supply constraints.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 02 Feb 2026 18:00:00 -0800</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Michael Bauer", "Mary C. Daly", "Lora Dufresne", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Oscar Jorda", "Sylvain Leduc", "Schuyler Louie", "John Mondragon", "Rami Najjar", "Fernanda Nechio", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Mark M. Spiegel", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Johannes Wieland", "Daniel Wilson", "Xiaoqing Zhou"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/02/housing-affordability-and-housing-demand/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">256217</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>The Recent Slowdown in Labor Supply and Demand</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/01/recent-slowdown-in-labor-supply-and-demand/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[The pace of job growth cooled through mid-2025, while the unemployment rate rose relatively little. This seeming puzzle is explained by an even stepdown of labor supply and demand, meaning slowing labor force growth coincided with a slowdown in job growth. The recent decline in job growth is broad based across industries, suggesting a widespread softening of labor demand. For the labor force, recent declines are driven by changes in immigration flows and declining labor force participation. Together, these factors may signal some underlying fragility in the labor market.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 12 Jan 2026 18:00:00 -0800</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Michael Bauer", "Leila Bengali", "Ingrid Chen", "Mary C. Daly", "Lora Dufresne", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Oscar Jorda", "Sylvain Leduc", "Schuyler Louie", "John Mondragon", "Rami Najjar", "Fernanda Nechio", "Addie New-Schmidt", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau", "Mark M. Spiegel", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Johannes Wieland", "Daniel Wilson", "Xiaoqing Zhou"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/01/recent-slowdown-in-labor-supply-and-demand/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">255811</post-id>        </item>
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            <title>What Can History Tell Us About Tariff Shocks?</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/01/what-can-history-tell-us-about-tariff-shocks/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[The change in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era. One way to assess the effects of such a large shock on unemployment and inflation is by looking at data from pre-World War II periods with tariff rate changes of a similar magnitude. Analysis shows that previous tariff hikes raised unemployment and reduced both economic activity and inflation. Uncertainty may be a factor behind these effects: A large tariff increase raises uncertainty, which can depress overall demand and lead to lower inflation.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 05 Jan 2026 18:00:00 -0800</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Regis Barnichon", "Michael Bauer", "Leila Bengali", "Ingrid Chen", "Mary C. Daly", "Lora Dufresne", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Oscar Jorda", "Sylvain Leduc", "Schuyler Louie", "John Mondragon", "Rami Najjar", "Fernanda Nechio", "Addie New-Schmidt", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau", "Aayush Singh", "Mark M. Spiegel", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Johannes Wieland", "Daniel Wilson", "Xiaoqing Zhou"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">255624</post-id>        </item>
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