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    <title>Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: FRBSF Economic Letter</title>
    <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/</link>
    <description>Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.</description>
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            <title>Have We Entered an Era of High Productivity Growth?</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/have-we-entered-era-of-high-productivity-growth/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Labor productivity gains over the past three years helped the U.S. economy expand steadily, even with near-zero employment growth. Combined with substantially increased business investment in artificial intelligence technology, these conditions have raised the question of whether the economy is entering a high-productivity growth period. Two well-known productivity measures do not yet provide strong evidence of this shift. However, recent patterns resemble the mixed signals during the early stages of the 1990s productivity surge before a sustained high-growth period materialized, giving reason for cautious optimism about future productivity growth.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Hamza Abdelrahman", "Andrew Foerster"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">325165</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Is Optimism for Artificial Intelligence Boosting Investment?</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/is-optimism-for-artificial-intelligence-boosting-investment/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[U.S. business spending related to artificial intelligence (AI) grew substantially in 2025 among publicly traded firms, which account for the bulk of overall investment. Analyzing sentiment data from quarterly company earnings calls can help infer current and evolving optimism towards AI. Public firm data show growth in capital spending and research and development funding has come entirely from the largest companies that are positive about AI. While market concentration among large firms raises some challenges, optimism measures suggest that AI investment will continue to contribute to future overall investment growth. ]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 18 May 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Hamza Abdelrahman", "Andrew Foerster", "Aakash Kalyani", "Huiyu Li"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/is-optimism-for-artificial-intelligence-boosting-investment/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">319821</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>AI-Powered Algorithmic Pricing and Monetary Policy</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/ai-powered-algorithmic-pricing-and-monetary-policy/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[The business practice of adjusting prices using algorithms powered by artificial intelligence—known as AI pricing—has grown rapidly and spread across many sectors in the economy. Unlike traditional price setting, AI pricing uses predictive analysis of large data sets to incorporate real-time changes in supply and demand conditions into pricing decisions. This enables businesses to adjust prices more quickly in response to unexpected changes in market conditions and monetary policy. Industry-level evidence suggests that price adjustments are more sensitive to monetary policy in sectors where AI pricing is more prevalent.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Hamza Abdelrahman", "Greeshma Avaradi", "Andrew Foerster", "Aakash Kalyani", "Huiyu Li", "Zheng Liu", "Steven Zhao"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">314602</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>What Do Financial Officers Predict for Price Growth?</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/what-do-financial-officers-predict-for-price-growth/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Survey responses from chief financial officers and other financial decisionmakers yield a new measure of inflation expectations. Rather than asking about expectations for overall inflation, this survey asks about expected price growth at each respondent’s business. Aggregating survey responses provides an economy-wide indicator that tracks well with actual core consumer price index inflation. Survey responses collected before and during the recent oil shock imply that core inflation could remain elevated this year if the historical relationship between financial officer expectations and realized core inflation persist.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Hamza Abdelrahman", "Greeshma Avaradi", "Andrew Foerster", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Aakash Kalyani", "Huiyu Li", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Steven Zhao"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/what-do-financial-officers-predict-for-price-growth/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">309434</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Regionalism at the Federal Reserve: Many Voices, One Purpose</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/04/regionalism-at-federal-reserve-many-voices-one-purpose/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Public institutions like the Federal Reserve must evolve to meet new challenges and allow for new possibilities. At the Fed, we have modernized and innovated over time, always grounding ourselves in our founding principles—to be regional in our work, independent in our thinking, and accountable to those we serve. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce, in St. George, Utah, on April 8.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 13 Apr 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Hamza Abdelrahman", "Greeshma Avaradi", "Mary C. Daly", "Andrew Foerster", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Aakash Kalyani", "Huiyu Li", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Steven Zhao"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/04/regionalism-at-federal-reserve-many-voices-one-purpose/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">295635</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Monetary Policy Through the Lens of Market-Based Inflation</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/04/monetary-policy-through-lens-of-market-based-inflation/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Some goods and services prices are not directly observed and must be indirectly derived for measuring inflation. This nonmarket-based inflation category has been an important factor keeping headline inflation elevated over the past two years. Because indirectly deriving prices introduces measurement uncertainty, one monetary policy approach would be to focus solely on directly observable prices. Applying this through a well-known monetary policy rule suggests a notably lower federal funds rate. However, other rules that account for the implicit uncertainty that policymakers face would leave the federal funds rate essentially unchanged. ]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 06 Apr 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Hamza Abdelrahman", "Greeshma Avaradi", "Mary C. Daly", "Andrew Foerster", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Aakash Kalyani", "Sylvain Leduc", "Huiyu Li", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Steven Zhao"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">295341</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Fed Communications and Inflation Expectations</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/03/fed-communications-and-inflation-expectations/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Monetary policy surprises—changes in various interest rates around central bank communication events—reflect new information in monetary policy actions and communications. For the Federal Reserve, surprises around Federal Open Market Committee statements and post-meeting press conferences have, in recent years, often led to meaningful market surprises that capture policy news. Event-study analysis provides new market-based evidence of monetary policy transmission: Hawkish policy surprises lower market-based inflation expectations, while dovish surprises raise them, in line with standard monetary transmission. These effects are especially strong at longer horizons.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Hamza Abdelrahman", "Greeshma Avaradi", "Michael Bauer", "Mary C. Daly", "Andrew Foerster", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Aakash Kalyani", "Sylvain Leduc", "Huiyu Li", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Steven Zhao"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/03/fed-communications-and-inflation-expectations/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">295085</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>The Effects of Tariffs on the Components of Inflation</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/03/effects-of-tariffs-on-components-of-inflation/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[Tariffs are usually applied to imported goods—but in an interconnected economy, their effects can be felt in the prices of other goods and services. Estimates using data across multiple advanced economies show that inflation declines right after tariffs are imposed. This initial decline reflects decreased demand, visible in declining prices for energy such as oil, a primary commodity typically exempt from tariffs. After the initial tariff shock, inflation gradually picks up, driven first by goods and later by services, one of the more persistent categories of inflation.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 30 Mar 2026 17:00:00 -0700</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Hamza Abdelrahman", "Greeshma Avaradi", "Michael Bauer", "Mary C. Daly", "Andrew Foerster", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Oscar Jorda", "Aakash Kalyani", "Sylvain Leduc", "Huiyu Li", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Fernanda Nechio", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Steven Zhao"</author>
            <guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/03/effects-of-tariffs-on-components-of-inflation/</guid> 
                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">295062</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>The AI Moment? Possibilities, Productivity, and Policy</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/02/ai-moment-possibilities-productivity-policy/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[AI adoption and use are still evolving, and the technology itself is changing rapidly. What we know about AI and its impact on productivity growth and the economy remains uncertain. Transformations take time. We need to look for early indicators in the data and in business to get monetary policy right. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Silicon Valley Leadership Group and San Jose State University in San Jose, California, on February 17.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:00:00 -0800</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Hamza Abdelrahman", "Greeshma Avaradi", "Michael Bauer", "Mary C. Daly", "Andrew Foerster", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Oscar Jorda", "Aakash Kalyani", "Sylvain Leduc", "Huiyu Li", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Fernanda Nechio", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Steven Zhao"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">263062</post-id>        </item>
                <item>
            <title>Unauthorized Immigration Effects on Local Labor Markets</title>
            <link>https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/02/unauthorized-immigration-effects-on-local-labor-markets/</link>
            <description><![CDATA[The large increase and subsequent decline of unauthorized immigrant workers in recent years have raised questions about the impact of these changes on local labor markets across the United States. New analysis linking immigration data with employment data for specific areas suggests that the rapid rise in unauthorized immigrant worker flows increased local employment roughly one-for-one. Extending the analysis to the industry level further suggests that the slowdown of net immigration had a large negative impact on local employment, particularly for construction and manufacturing.]]></description>
            <pubDate>Tue, 17 Feb 2026 18:00:00 -0800</pubDate>
            <dc:creator></dc:creator>
            <author>"Hamza Abdelrahman", "Greeshma Avaradi", "Michael Bauer", "Mary C. Daly", "Andrew Foerster", "Stephie Fried", "Tobin Graf", "Naomi Halbersleben", "Oscar Jorda", "Aakash Kalyani", "Sylvain Leduc", "Huiyu Li", "Zheng Liu", "Simar Malhotra", "Fernanda Nechio", "Luiz Edgard Oliveira", "Sanjay R. Singh", "Wesley Wasserburger", "Daniel Wilson", "Steven Zhao", "Xiaoqing Zhou"</author>
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                        <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">262898</post-id>        </item>
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