Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Economic Research

Emerging Markets and Macroeconomic Volatility

June 4, 2004

Center for Pacific Basin Monetary and Economic Studies, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
and the Center for International Economics, University of Maryland

Conference Summary

Agenda Download (PDF -39kb)

Agenda

  8:30 a.m. Continental Breakfast
 
  8:50 a.m. Welcoming Remarks Reuven Glick, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
 
  9:00 a.m. Session 1 “How do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship between Growth and Volatility?”
    Presenters: Ayhan Kose, Marco E. Terrones, and Eswar Prasad, International Monetary Fund
    Discussant: Linda Tesar, University of Michigan
  10:00 a.m. Break  
  10:30 a.m. Session 2 “Macroeconomic Risk and Banking Crises in Emerging Market Countries: Business Fluctuations with Financial Crashes”
    Presenters: Pedro Marcelo Oviedo, Iowa State University
    Discussant: Michele Cavallo, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
  11:30 a.m. Session 3 “Endogenous Dollarization, Expectations, and
Equilibrium Monetary Policy”
    Presenters: Andres Velasco, Harvard University and Roberto Chang, Rutgers University
    Discussant: Maurice Obstfeld, University of California, Berkeley
  12:30 p.m. Lunch Market Street Dining Room, Fourth Floor
  2:00 p.m. Session 4 “Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Costs of Floating”
    Presenters: Fabrizio Perri, New York University, Stern, Michele Cavallo, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Kate Kisselev, Citigroup, and Nouriel Roubini, New York University, Stern
    Discussant: Cristina Arellano, Duke University
  3:00 p.m. Session 5 “Dollar Bloc or Dollar Block: External Currency Pricing and the East Asian Crisis”
    Presenters: Michael Devereux, University of British Columbia and David Cook, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
    Discussant: Paul Bergin, University of California, Davis
  4:00 p.m. Break  
  4:15 p.m. Session 6 “Country Spreads and Emerging Countries: Who Drives Whom?”
   
Panelists:
Martin Uribe, Duke University, and Vivian Yue, University of Pennsylvania
    Discussant: Reuven Glick, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
  5:30 p.m. Reception Market Street Dining Room, Fourth Floor
  6:30 p.m. Dinner Market Street Dining Room, Fourth Floor
    Introduction: Enrique G. Mendoza, University of Maryland
    Keynote Speaker: “On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects”
Guillermo Calvo, Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank, and Director of the Center for International Economics and Distinguished University Professor at the University of Maryland
Saturday, June 5
  8:30 a.m. Continental Breakfast
  9:00 a.m. Session 7 “When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion”
    Presenters: Fernando Broner, University of Maryland, Gaston Gelos, International Monetary Fund, and Carmen Reinhart, University of Maryland
    Discussant: Paolo Pesenti, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  10:00 a.m. Break  
  10:15 a.m. Session 8 “Putting the Brakes on Sudden Stops: The Financial Frictions-Moral Hazard Tradeoff of Asset Price Guarantees”
    Presenters: Bora Durdu and Enrique Mendoza, University of Maryland
    Discussant: Urban Jermann, Wharton Business School
  11:15 a.m. Session 9 Roundtable Discussion: The Policy Response to Financial Crisis
    Panelists: Guillermo Calvo, Chief Economist, IADB and Distinguished University Professor at the University of Maryland, Michael P. Dooley, Professor, University of California, Santa Cruz, and Agustin Carstens, Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
  12:30 p.m. Lunch  
  2:00 p.m. Session 10 “Defaultable Debt, Interest Rates and the Current Account”
    Presenters: Gita Gopinath and Mark Aguiar, Chicago Graduate School of Business
    Discussant: Diego Valderrama, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
  3:00 p.m. Session 11 “Private Capital Flows, Capital Controls, and Default Risk”
    Presenters: Mark Wright, Stanford University
    Discussant: Kenneth M. Kletzer, University of California, Santa Cruz
  4:00 p.m. Adjournment