Center for Pacific Basin Studies

The Center for Pacific Basin Studies seeks to promote cooperation among Pacific Basin central banks and enhance public understanding of major monetary and economic policy issues in the region.

Learn more about the Center for Pacific Basin Studies

CPBS Annual Reports

2011 CPBS Annual Report

Current report (pdf, 1.8 mb)
Past reports

Working Papers

China’s Financial Linkages with Asia and the Global Financial Crisis

FRBSF Working Paper 2013-12

Glick • Hutchison | May 2013

This paper presents empirical evidence on how asset market linkages between China and Asia shifted during and after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. We find only weak cross-country linkages in longer-term interest rates, but much stronger linkages in equity markets. We also find that the strength of the correlation of equity price changes between China and other Asian countries increased markedly and has remained high in recent years.

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Pacific Basin Notes

Occasional series of the FRBSF Economic Letter

Job Uncertainty and Chinese Household Savings

2014-03

Zheng Liu | February 3, 2014

China’s household saving rate has risen substantially during the past two decades. Research suggests that increased job uncertainty following reforms and massive layoffs in state-owned enterprises during the late 1990s contributed significantly to the increase. Facing higher unemployment risks after the reforms, workers in state-owned enterprises have tended to save more as a precaution. A recent study estimates that precautionary saving driven by the reforms explains about a third of Chinese urban household wealth accumulation from 1995 to 2002.

On the Reliability of Chinese Output Figures

2013-08

John Fernald, Israel Malkin, and Mark Spiegel | March 25, 2013

Some commentators have questioned whether China’s economy slowed more in 2012 than official gross domestic product figures indicate. However, the 2012 reported output and industrial production figures are consistent both with alternative Chinese indicators of the country’s economic activity, such as electricity production, and trade volume measures reported by non-Chinese sources. These alternative domestic and foreign sources provide no evidence that China’s economic growth was slower than official data indicate.

External Shocks and China’s Monetary Policy

2012-36

Zheng Liu and Mark M. Spiegel | December 13, 2012

China prohibits its private sector from freely trading foreign assets and tightly manages currency exchange rates. In the wake of the recent global financial crisis, interest rates on China’s foreign assets fell sharply, while yields on Chinese domestic assets remained relatively high, posing a challenge for China’s monetary policy. Opening the capital account would improve China’s capacity to weather external shocks, such as sudden declines in foreign interest rates. However, allowing the exchange rate to float without removing capital controls is less effective.

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