Publications and Research Working Papers
Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.
The traditional relationship between unemployment and output growth known as Okun’s law appeared to break down during the Great Recession. This raised the question of whether this rule of thumb was still meaningful as a forecasting tool. However, recent revisions to GDP data show that its relation with unemployment followed a fairly typical cyclical pattern compared with past deep recessions and slow recoveries. The comparatively common patterns suggest that rumors of the death of Okun’s law during the Great Recession were greatly exaggerated.
An annual summary of Department research plus in-depth policy article.
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook.
Glenn Rudebusch, executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, provides his views on current economic developments and the outlook.
The SF Fed Forecast Preview is an advance release of the monthly SF Fed FedViews publication. Our forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment will usually be released will usually be released on the second Tuesday of each month.
Western Economic Developments is linked to via Fed in Print only.
- Executive Summary
- District Update
- Nonresidential Real Estate and Construction
- Alaska, Oregon, and Washington
- Arizona, California, and Hawaii
- Idaho, Nevada, and Utah
- California’s economy continued to expand at a strong pace in late 1996, and the state’s labor market tightened further.
- Nevada, the fastest-growing state in the nation, continued to add jobs at more than a 6-1/2 percent average annual pace in recent months.
Preliminary versions of economic research.
Greater financial integration between core and peripheral EMU members affected both sets of countries. Lower interest rates allowed peripheral countries to run bigger deficits. Core countries took on extra foreign leverage to expose themselves to the peripherals. The result has been asset-price bubbles and collapses in some peripheral countries, area-wide banking crisis, and sovereign debt problems. We analyze international debt flows and provide evidence that after the euro’s introduction, core countries increased borrowing from outside of the EMU and their lending to the periphery.