Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Economic Research

Publications and Research Working Papers

FRBSF Economic Letters

Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.


Rob Valletta
2015-02

The earnings gap between people with a college degree and those with no education beyond high school has been growing since the late 1970s. Since 2000, however, the gap has grown more for those who have earned a post-graduate degree as well. The divergence between workers with college degrees and those with graduate degrees may be one manifestation of rising labor market polarization, which benefits those earning the highest and the lowest wages relatively more than those in the middle of the wage distribution.

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Economic Review

An annual summary of Department research plus in-depth policy article.

FedViews

Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook.

Mark Spiegel, vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, states his views on the current economy and the outlook.

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SF Fed Forecast Preview

The SF Fed Forecast Preview is an advance release of the monthly SF Fed FedViews publication. Our forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment will usually be released will usually be released on the second Tuesday of each month.

Western Economic Developments

Western Economic Developments is linked to via Fed in Print only.

  • Executive Summary
  • District Update
  • Nonresidential Real Estate and Construction
  • Alaska, Oregon, and Washington
  • Arizona, California, and Hawaii
  • Idaho, Nevada, and Utah

Executive Summary

  • California’s economy continued to expand at a strong pace in late 1996, and the state’s labor market tightened further.
  • Nevada, the fastest-growing state in the nation, continued to add jobs at more than a 6-1/2 percent average annual pace in recent months.

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Working Papers

Preliminary versions of economic research.


We use a simple asset pricing model to “reverse-engineer” shocks to housing demand and lending standards to replicate the U.S. boom-bust patterns from 1995 to 2012. We consider four different specifications of the model that vary how household expectations are formed and the mortgage contract maturity. Moving average forecast rules and long-term mortgage debt provide the best match. Our results support the view that the boom was a classic credit-fueled bubble involving over-optimistic projections about housing values, relaxed lending standards, and ineffective mortgage regulation.

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