What is the sustainable pace of GDP growth in the U.S.? A plausible point forecast has GDP per capita rising well under 1% per year in the longer run, with overall GDP growth a little over 1½%. The main drivers of slow growth are educational attainment and demographics. First, rising educational attainment will add less to productivity growth than historically. Second, as baby boomers age, employment will rise more slowly than population. This forecast assumes productivity growth is relatively “normal,” if modest—in line with its general pace since 1973. An upside risk is another burst of IT-induced productivity growth.