Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Economic Research

Publications and Research Working Papers

FRBSF Economic Letters

Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.


Rob Valletta
2015-02

The earnings gap between people with a college degree and those with no education beyond high school has been growing since the late 1970s. Since 2000, however, the gap has grown more for those who have earned a post-graduate degree as well. The divergence between workers with college degrees and those with graduate degrees may be one manifestation of rising labor market polarization, which benefits those earning the highest and the lowest wages relatively more than those in the middle of the wage distribution.

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Economic Review

An annual summary of Department research plus in-depth policy article.

FedViews

Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook.

Mark Spiegel, vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, states his views on the current economy and the outlook.

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SF Fed Forecast Preview

The SF Fed Forecast Preview is an advance release of the monthly SF Fed FedViews publication. Our forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment will usually be released will usually be released on the second Tuesday of each month.

Western Economic Developments

Western Economic Developments is linked to via Fed in Print only.

  • Executive Summary
  • District Update
  • Nonresidential Real Estate and Construction
  • Alaska, Oregon, and Washington
  • Arizona, California, and Hawaii
  • Idaho, Nevada, and Utah

Executive Summary

  • California’s economy continued to expand at a strong pace in late 1996, and the state’s labor market tightened further.
  • Nevada, the fastest-growing state in the nation, continued to add jobs at more than a 6-1/2 percent average annual pace in recent months.

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Working Papers

Preliminary versions of economic research.


Henry S. Farber, Jesse Rothstein, and Robert G. Valletta

Unemployment Insurance benefit durations were extended during the Great Recession, reaching 99 weeks for most recipients. The extensions were rolled back and eventually terminated by the end of 2013. Using matched CPS data from 2008-2014, we estimate the effect of extended benefits on unemployment exits separately during the earlier period of benefit expansion and the later period of rollback. In both periods, we find little or no effect on job-finding but a reduction in labor force exits due to benefit availability. We estimate that the rollbacks reduced the labor force participation rate by about 0.1 percentage point in early 2014.

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