Publications and Research Working Papers
Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.
An ongoing concern has been that the public might misconstrue the Fed’s forward guidance about future monetary policy and underappreciate the extent to which short-term interest rates may vary with future news about the economy. Evidence based on surveys, market expectations, and model estimates show that the public seems to expect a more accommodative policy than Federal Open Market Committee participants. The public also may be less uncertain about these forecasts than policymakers.
An annual summary of Department research plus in-depth policy article.
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook.
Michael Bauer, economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, states his views on the current economy and the outlook.
The SF Fed Forecast Preview is an advance release of the monthly SF Fed FedViews publication. Our forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment will usually be released will usually be released on the second Tuesday of each month.
Western Economic Developments is linked to via Fed in Print only.
- Executive Summary
- District Update
- Nonresidential Real Estate and Construction
- Alaska, Oregon, and Washington
- Arizona, California, and Hawaii
- Idaho, Nevada, and Utah
- California’s economy continued to expand at a strong pace in late 1996, and the state’s labor market tightened further.
- Nevada, the fastest-growing state in the nation, continued to add jobs at more than a 6-1/2 percent average annual pace in recent months.
Preliminary versions of economic research.
U.K. data from 1993-2012 suggest that in economic downturns a smaller fraction of unemployed workers change their career when starting a new job. The proportion of total hires involving a career change also drops. This implies that career changes decline during recessions. The results indicate that recessions are times of subdued reallocation rather than of accelerated and involuntary structural transformation.