Publications and Research Working Papers
Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.
In the six decades following World War II, bank lending measured as a ratio to GDP has quadrupled in advanced economies. To a great extent, this unprecedented expansion of credit was driven by a dramatic growth in mortgage loans. Lending backed by real estate has allowed households to leverage up and has changed the traditional business of banking in fundamental ways. This “Great Mortgaging” has had a profound influence on the dynamics of business cycles.
An annual summary of Department research plus in-depth policy article.
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook.
Daniel Wilson, research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, states his views on the current economy and the outlook.
The SF Fed Forecast Preview is an advance release of the monthly SF Fed FedViews publication. Our forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment will usually be released will usually be released on the second Tuesday of each month.
Western Economic Developments is linked to via Fed in Print only.
- Executive Summary
- District Update
- Nonresidential Real Estate and Construction
- Alaska, Oregon, and Washington
- Arizona, California, and Hawaii
- Idaho, Nevada, and Utah
- California’s economy continued to expand at a strong pace in late 1996, and the state’s labor market tightened further.
- Nevada, the fastest-growing state in the nation, continued to add jobs at more than a 6-1/2 percent average annual pace in recent months.
Preliminary versions of economic research.
We explore the relationship between inflation and the bond market. Bond holders are exposed to capital losses through inflation and represent a potential anti-inflationary force; we ask whether their influence is apparent using a simple theoretical model where bond issuance leads to political pressure on the government to choose a lower inflation rate. We then check empirical data before and after the introduction of a domestic bond market. Inflation-targeting countries with a bond market experience inflation approximately 3-4 percentage points lower than those without one.