Publications and Research Working Papers
Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.
In 2013, the Federal Reserve publicly described conditions for scaling back and ultimately ending its highly accommodative monetary policy. Some emerging market countries subsequently experienced sharp reversals of capital inflows, resulting in sizable currency depreciation. But others did not. Variations in financial market reactions from one country to another appear to have been related to differences in economic conditions, which partly reflected a country’s policies before the Fed’s tapering comments.
An annual summary of Department research plus in-depth policy article.
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook.
Vasco Cúrdia, senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, provides his views on current economic developments and the outlook.
The SF Fed Forecast Preview is an advance release of the monthly SF Fed FedViews publication. Our forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment will usually be released will usually be released on the second Tuesday of each month.
Western Economic Developments is linked to via Fed in Print only.
- Executive Summary
- District Update
- Nonresidential Real Estate and Construction
- Alaska, Oregon, and Washington
- Arizona, California, and Hawaii
- Idaho, Nevada, and Utah
- California’s economy continued to expand at a strong pace in late 1996, and the state’s labor market tightened further.
- Nevada, the fastest-growing state in the nation, continued to add jobs at more than a 6-1/2 percent average annual pace in recent months.
Preliminary versions of economic research.
Did Consumers Want Less Debt? Consumer Credit Demand Versus Supply in the Wake of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis
We explore the sources of household balance sheet adjustment following the housing market collapse in 2006. Renters, unlike homeowners, did not experience an adverse wealth shock when the housing market collapsed. We use this fact to examine the relative importance of two explanations for the deleveraging and sluggish pickup in consumption. Households may have adjusted to lower wealth by reducing their demand for debt and consumption. Alternatively, banks may have been more reluctant to lend in areas with pronounced real estate declines. Our evidence is consistent with the second explanation.