Publications and Research Working Papers
Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.
The official estimate of real GDP growth for the first three months of 2015 was shockingly weak. However, such estimates in the past appear to have understated first-quarter growth fairly consistently, even though they are adjusted to try to account for seasonal patterns. Applying a second round of seasonal adjustment corrects this residual seasonality. After this correction, aggregate output grew much faster in the first quarter than reported.
An annual summary of Department research plus in-depth policy article.
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook.
Òscar Jordà, vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, states his views on the current economy and the outlook.
The SF Fed Forecast Preview is an advance release of the monthly SF Fed FedViews publication. Our forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment will usually be released will usually be released on the second Tuesday of each month.
Western Economic Developments is linked to via Fed in Print only.
- Executive Summary
- District Update
- Nonresidential Real Estate and Construction
- Alaska, Oregon, and Washington
- Arizona, California, and Hawaii
- Idaho, Nevada, and Utah
- California’s economy continued to expand at a strong pace in late 1996, and the state’s labor market tightened further.
- Nevada, the fastest-growing state in the nation, continued to add jobs at more than a 6-1/2 percent average annual pace in recent months.
Preliminary versions of economic research.
We study the impact of competition among physicians on service provision and health outcomes, focusing on first time heart attacks treated in the emergency room. Physician concentration has a small but statistically significant effect on service utilization. Cardiologists in more concentrated markets perform more intensive procedures in which choice is more discretionary. Higher concentration also leads to fewer readmissions, implying potential health benefits. These findings suggest that changes in organizational structure in a market influence both negotiated service prices and provision.