Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Economic Research

Publications and Research Working Papers

FRBSF Economic Letters

Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.

Interpreting Deviations from Okun’s Law


Mary C. Daly, John Fernald, Òscar Jordà, and Fernanda Nechio
2014-12

The traditional relationship between unemployment and output growth known as Okun’s law appeared to break down during the Great Recession. This raised the question of whether this rule of thumb was still meaningful as a forecasting tool. However, recent revisions to GDP data show that its relation with unemployment followed a fairly typical cyclical pattern compared with past deep recessions and slow recoveries. The comparatively common patterns suggest that rumors of the death of Okun’s law during the Great Recession were greatly exaggerated.

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Economic Review

An annual summary of Department research plus in-depth policy article.

FedViews

Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook.

FedViews: April 10, 2014

Glenn Rudebusch, executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, provides his views on current economic developments and the outlook.

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SF Fed Forecast Preview

The SF Fed Forecast Preview is an advance release of the monthly SF Fed FedViews publication. Our forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment will usually be released will usually be released on the second Tuesday of each month.

Western Economic Developments

Western Economic Developments is linked to via Fed in Print only.

Western Economic Developments January 1997

  • Executive Summary
  • District Update
  • Nonresidential Real Estate and Construction
  • Alaska, Oregon, and Washington
  • Arizona, California, and Hawaii
  • Idaho, Nevada, and Utah

Executive Summary

  • California’s economy continued to expand at a strong pace in late 1996, and the state’s labor market tightened further.
  • Nevada, the fastest-growing state in the nation, continued to add jobs at more than a 6-1/2 percent average annual pace in recent months.

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Working Papers

Preliminary versions of economic research.

The Euro and the Geography of International Debt Flows


Galina Hale and Maurice Obstfeld

Greater financial integration between core and peripheral EMU members affected both sets of countries. Lower interest rates allowed peripheral countries to run bigger deficits. Core countries took on extra foreign leverage to expose themselves to the peripherals. The result has been asset-price bubbles and collapses in some peripheral countries, area-wide banking crisis, and sovereign debt problems. We analyze international debt flows and provide evidence that after the euro’s introduction, core countries increased borrowing from outside of the EMU and their lending to the periphery.

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