FRBSF Economic Letters

Economic analysis for a general audience

Fred Furlong


The muted housing recovery in recent years can be traced in part to slower household formation among young adults. Analysis suggests that the boom and bust in housing has been a key factor. Recent weakness in household formation relative to population growth among young adults represents a reversal of the unusual strength during the boom years. The net effect has left shares of current young adults heading households at levels similar to those in the mid-1990s before the housing boom.

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Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook

SF Fed Forecast Preview

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Western Economic Developments

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Working Papers

The latest in economic research

Gilbert Cette, John G. Fernald, and Benoit Mojon

Since the Great Recession, productivity growth slowed around the world. We highlight that this pace slowed before the recession for the U.S. and Europe. This suggests potential importance of other factors, such as the relative slowing during and before the recession from previous fast-paced frontiers in IT. We provide VAR and panel-data evidence that changes in real interest rates influenced productivity dynamics in this period. In particular, the sharp decline in real interest rates in Italy and Spain seemed to trigger unfavorable reallocations large enough to reduce total factor productivity.

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