Publications and Research Working Papers
Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.
Median starting wages of recent college graduates have not kept pace with median earnings for all workers over the past six years. This type of gap in wage growth also appeared after the 2001 recession and closed only late in the subsequent labor market recovery. However the wage gap in the current recovery is substantially larger and has lasted longer than in the past. The larger gap represents slow growth in starting salaries for graduates, rather than a shift in types of jobs, and reflects continued weakness in the demand for labor overall.
An annual summary of Department research plus in-depth policy article.
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook.
John Fernald, senior research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, states his views on the current economy and the outlook.
The SF Fed Forecast Preview is an advance release of the monthly SF Fed FedViews publication. Our forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment will usually be released will usually be released on the second Tuesday of each month.
Western Economic Developments is linked to via Fed in Print only.
- Executive Summary
- District Update
- Nonresidential Real Estate and Construction
- Alaska, Oregon, and Washington
- Arizona, California, and Hawaii
- Idaho, Nevada, and Utah
- California’s economy continued to expand at a strong pace in late 1996, and the state’s labor market tightened further.
- Nevada, the fastest-growing state in the nation, continued to add jobs at more than a 6-1/2 percent average annual pace in recent months.
Preliminary versions of economic research.
We study how real exchange rate dynamics are affected by monetary policy in dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium, sticky-price models. Our analytical and quantitative results show that the source of interest rate persistence – policy inertia or persistent policy shocks – is key. When the monetary policy rule has a strong interest rate smoothing component, these models fail to generate high real exchange rate persistence in response to monetary shocks, as policy inertia hampers their ability to generate a hump-shaped response to such shocks. Moreover, in the presence of persistent monetary shocks, increasing policy inertia may decrease real exchange rate persistence.