Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Economic Research

Publications and Research Working Papers

FRBSF Economic Letters

Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.


Early Elias, Helen Irvin, and Òscar Jordà
2014-35

An accurate measure of economic slack is key to properly calibrating monetary policy. Two traditional gauges of slack have become harder to interpret since the Great Recession: the gap between output and its potential level, and the deviation of the unemployment rate from its natural rate. As a consequence, conventional policy rules based on these measures of slack generate wide-ranging policy rate recommendations. This variability highlights one of the challenges policymakers currently face.

View past FRBSF Economic Letters
Subscribe

Economic Review

An annual summary of Department research plus in-depth policy article.

FedViews

Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook.

Kevin J. Lansing, research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, states his views on the current economy and the outlook.

View past FedViews
Subscribe

SF Fed Forecast Preview

The SF Fed Forecast Preview is an advance release of the monthly SF Fed FedViews publication. Our forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment will usually be released will usually be released on the second Tuesday of each month.

Western Economic Developments

Western Economic Developments is linked to via Fed in Print only.

  • Executive Summary
  • District Update
  • Nonresidential Real Estate and Construction
  • Alaska, Oregon, and Washington
  • Arizona, California, and Hawaii
  • Idaho, Nevada, and Utah

Executive Summary

  • California’s economy continued to expand at a strong pace in late 1996, and the state’s labor market tightened further.
  • Nevada, the fastest-growing state in the nation, continued to add jobs at more than a 6-1/2 percent average annual pace in recent months.

    View past Western Economic Developments

Working Papers

Preliminary versions of economic research.


William A. Branch, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, Guillaume Rocheteau

We develop a two-sector search-matching model of the labor market with imperfect mobility of workers, augmented to incorporate a housing market and a frictional goods market. Homeowners use home equity as collateral to finance idiosyncratic consumption opportunities. A financial innovation that raises the acceptability of homes as collateral raises house prices and reduces unemployment. It also triggers a reallocation of workers, with the direction of the change depending on firms’ market power in the goods market. A calibrated version of the model under adaptive learning can account for house prices, sectoral labor flows, and unemployment rate changes over 1996-2010.

View past Working Papers
Subscribe