Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Economic Research

Publications and Research Working Papers

FRBSF Economic Letters

Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.


Jens H.E. Christensen and Simon Kwan
2014-27

An ongoing concern has been that the public might misconstrue the Fed’s forward guidance about future monetary policy and underappreciate the extent to which short-term interest rates may vary with future news about the economy. Evidence based on surveys, market expectations, and model estimates show that the public seems to expect a more accommodative policy than Federal Open Market Committee participants. The public also may be less uncertain about these forecasts than policymakers.

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Economic Review

An annual summary of Department research plus in-depth policy article.

FedViews

Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook.

Zheng Liu, senior research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, states his views on the current economy and the outlook.

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SF Fed Forecast Preview

The SF Fed Forecast Preview is an advance release of the monthly SF Fed FedViews publication. Our forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment will usually be released will usually be released on the second Tuesday of each month.

Western Economic Developments

Western Economic Developments is linked to via Fed in Print only.

  • Executive Summary
  • District Update
  • Nonresidential Real Estate and Construction
  • Alaska, Oregon, and Washington
  • Arizona, California, and Hawaii
  • Idaho, Nevada, and Utah

Executive Summary

  • California’s economy continued to expand at a strong pace in late 1996, and the state’s labor market tightened further.
  • Nevada, the fastest-growing state in the nation, continued to add jobs at more than a 6-1/2 percent average annual pace in recent months.

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Working Papers

Preliminary versions of economic research.


Kevin J. Lansing and Jun Ma

We introduce a form of boundedly rational expectations into a standard asset-pricing model of the exchange rate, where cross-country interest rate differentials are governed by Taylor-type rules. We postulate that agents augment a lagged-information random walk forecast with a term that relates to news about Taylor-rule fundamentals. Our model generates volatility and persistence remarkably similar to monthly bilateral exchange rate data (relative to the U.S.) for Canada, Japan, and the U.K. over the period 1974 to 2012. Moreover, regressions performed on model-generated data can deliver the well-documented forward premium anomaly.

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