Publications and Research Working Papers
Economic analysis and research summaries for a general audience.
Much recent discussion has suggested that the official real GDP data are inadequately adjusted for recurring seasonal fluctuations. A similar pattern of insufficient seasonal adjustment also affects the published data for a key measure of price inflation. Still, such residual seasonality in the published output and inflation statistics is unlikely to mislead Federal Reserve policymakers or adversely affect the setting of monetary policy.
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook.
Michael Bauer, senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, states his views on the current economy and the outlook.
The SF Fed Forecast Preview is an advance release of the monthly SF Fed FedViews publication. Our forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment will usually be released will usually be released on the second Tuesday of each month.
Western Economic Developments is linked to via Fed in Print only.
- Executive Summary
- District Update
- Nonresidential Real Estate and Construction
- Alaska, Oregon, and Washington
- Arizona, California, and Hawaii
- Idaho, Nevada, and Utah
- California’s economy continued to expand at a strong pace in late 1996, and the state’s labor market tightened further.
- Nevada, the fastest-growing state in the nation, continued to add jobs at more than a 6-1/2 percent average annual pace in recent months.
Preliminary versions of economic research.
What risks do asset price bubbles pose for the economy? This paper studies bubbles in housing and equity markets in 17 countries over the past 140 years. History shows that not all bubbles are alike. Some have enormous costs for the economy, while others blow over. We demonstrate that what makes some bubbles more dangerous than others is credit. When fueled by credit booms, asset price bubbles increase financial crisis risks; upon collapse they tend to be followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Credit-financed housing price bubbles have emerged as a particularly dangerous phenomenon.