Publications

Publications

FRBSF Economic Letters

Economic analysis for a general audience

Julia Bevilaqua and Fernanda Nechio

2016-22

Following reports in 2015 that the Federal Reserve would likely begin to raise the short-term policy interest rate—after seven years of near-zero levels—net capital outflows from emerging economies intensified. Many of these countries also experienced large currency depreciations. These developments were similar to those following reports in 2013 about the possible tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases. Furthermore, in both episodes, financial market reactions varied across these developing economies according to each country’s own economic situation.

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FedViews

Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook

SF Fed Forecast Preview

The SF Fed Forecast Preview is an advance release of the monthly SF Fed FedViews publication. Our forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment will usually be released will usually be released on the second Tuesday of each month.

Western Economic Developments

Western Economic Developments is linked to via Fed in Print only.

Working Papers

The latest in economic research

Kathryn Holston, Thomas Laubach, and John C. Williams

U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest—the real short-term rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances—have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. Applying the Laubach-Williams (2003) methodology to the United States, Canada, the Euro Area, and the United Kingdom, we find large declines in trend GDP growth and natural rates of interest over the past 25 years in all four economies. These estimates display substantial comovement over time, suggesting an important role for global factors.

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