Research and Insights

Research is the basis for every action and decision we make at the SF Fed, spanning many different functions and responsibilities across the Bank. This page provides direct links to the full breadth of research and insights from two distinct groups within the SF Fed: the Economic Research Department and the Community Development group. You can also find recurring updates to specific data and indicators from the Economic Research Department on this page, as well as blog posts and SF Fed publications from departments throughout the Bank.

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Economic Research

Our Economic Research Department conducts
extensive research on a wide range of topics to
help inform monetary policy decisions and to
strengthen the public stock of knowledge.


Community Development

Our Community Development group conducts research on barriers to economic opportunity and promising practices as part of its work to advance the economic resilience and mobility of low-income communities.

Data & Indicators

Our economists provide recurring 
updates of specific data sets related 
to their research.

The Daily News Sentiment Index is 
a high frequency measure of U.S. economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles.

The Proxy Funds Rate uses a broad set of financial market indicators to assess the stance of monetary policy. The proxy rate can be interpreted as indicating what federal funds rate would typically be associated with prevailing financial market conditions if the federal funds rate were the only monetary policy tool being used.

The Treasury yield premium model decomposes nominal bond yields of various maturities into three components: expectations of the average future short-term interest rate, a term premium, and a model residual.

Pandemic-Era Excess Savings updates estimates of the remaining stock of aggregate excess savings in the U.S. economy, defined as the difference between actual savings and the pre-pandemic trend.

Supply- versus Demand-Driven PCE Inflation determines the monthly contributions to both headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation from supply-driven versus demand-driven components.

This page provides estimates of weather-adjusted employment change in the United States for the past six months. The estimates are aggregated from county-level estimates of weather’s employment effects, which were derived from a county-level analysis of the short-run effects of unusual weather on employment growth.


Blog Posts

In-depth articles offering insights from our experts’ research, public engagement, and events across the 12th district and the nation.


SF Fed Publications

We produce a wide range of publications that share the latest data, analysis, and insights from various teams at the SF Fed. Our publications help inform and strengthen public understanding of economic issues and its impact on people and communities.