Working Papers

The latest in economic research

2017

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14

The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009

John G. Fernald Robert E. Hall James H. Stock Mark W. Watson | June 2017

13

Clearing the Fog: The Predictive Power of Weather for Employment Reports and their Asset Price Responses

Daniel J. Wilson | June 2017

12

Approximating Multisector New Keynesian Models

Carlos Carvalho Fernanda Nechio | June 2017

11

The TIPS Liquidity Premium

Martin M. Andreasen Jens H. E. Christensen Simon Riddell | May 2017

10

Is There an On-the-Run Premium in TIPS?

Jens H. E. Christensen Jose A. Lopez Patrick Shultz | May 2017

09

The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices

Pascal Paul | May 2017

08

International Transmission of Japanese Monetary Shocks Under Low and Negative Interest Rates: A Global Favar Approach

Mark M. Spiegel Andrew Tai | April 2017

07

A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt

Jens H. E. Christensen Glenn D. Rudebusch | May 2017

06

Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis

Oscar Jorda Bjorn Richter Moritz Schularick Alan M. Taylor | March 2017

05

Generalized Matching Functions and Resource Utilization Indices for the Labor Market

Andreas Hornstein Marianna Kudlyak | February 2017

04

Missing Growth from Creative Destruction

Philippe Aghion Antonin Bergeaud Timo Boppart Peter J. Klenow Huiyu Li | January 2017

03

De-leveraging or de-risking? How banks cope with loss

Rhys M. Bidder John R. Krainer Adam H. Shapiro | June 2017

02

Large and State-Dependent Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments

Oscar Jorda Moritz Schularick Alan M. Taylor | January 2017

01

Measuring News Sentiment

Adam Hale Shapiro Moritz Sudhof Daniel J. Wilson | January 2017

2016

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31

Intergenerational Linkages in Household Credit

Andra C. Ghent Marianna Kudlyak | December 2016

30

Measuring the Effects of Dollar Appreciation on Asia: A Favar Approach

Zheng Liu Mark M. Spiegel Andrew Tai | November 2016

29

“Conditional PPP” and Real Exchange Rate Convergence in the Euro Area

Paul R. Bergin Reuven Glick Jyh-Lin Wu | October 2016

28

Mortgage Choice: Interactive Effects of House Price Appreciation and Mortgage Pricing Components

Frederick T. Furlong Yelena Takhtamanova David Lang | October 2016

27

Currency Unions and Regional Trade Agreements: EMU and EU Effects on Trade

Reuven Glick | October 2016

26

Stress Testing with Misspecified Models

Rhys Bidder Raffaella Giacomini Andrew McKenna | September 2016

25

FDI Effects on the Labor Market of Host Countries

Galina Hale Mingzhi Xu | September 2016

24

Estimating Matching Efficiency with Variable Search Effort

Andreas Hornstein Marianna Kudlyak | December 2016

23

Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts

Oscar Jorda Moritz Schularick Alan M. Taylor | September 2016

22

Revisiting the Behavior of Small and Large Firms during the 2008 Financial Crisis

Marianna Kudlyak Juan M. Sanchez | December 2016

21

The Impact of Weather on Local Employment: Using Big Data on Small Places

Daniel J. Wilson | June 2017

20

Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data

Olivier Coibion Yuriy Gorodnichenko Marianna Kudlyak John Mondragon | August 2016

19

Sentiments and Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States

Jess Benhabib Mark M. Spiegel | May 2016

18

Reassessing Longer-Run U.S. Growth: How Low?

John G. Fernald | August 2016

17

Recent Flattening in the Higher Education Wage Premium: Polarization, Skill Downgrading, or Both?

Robert G. Valletta | August 2016

16

The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment

Tarek A. Hassan Thomas M. Mertens | August 2016

15

Currency Manipulation

Tarek A. Hassan Thomas M. Mertens Tony Zhang | December 2016

14

The Outlook for U.S. Labor-Quality Growth

Canyon Bosler Mary C. Daly John G. Fernald Bart Hobijn | July 2016

13

The Intensity of Job Search and Search Duration

R. Jason Faberman Marianna Kudlyak | July 2016

12

A Portfolio Model of Quantitative Easing

Jens H. E. Christensen Signe Krogstrup | July 2016

11

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants

Kathryn Holston Thomas Laubach John C. Williams | December 2016

10

Reserve Requirements and Optimal Chinese Stabilization Policy

Chun Chang Zheng Liu Mark M. Spiegel Jingyi Zhang | May 2017

09

The Slow Job Recovery in a Macro Model of Search and Recruiting Intensity

Sylvain Leduc Zheng Liu | May 2017

08

The Pre-Great Recession Slowdown in Productivity

Gilbert Cette John G. Fernald Benoit Mojon | April 2016

07

Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?

John G. Fernald J. Christina Wang | April 2016

06

Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Monetary Policy

Carlos Carvalho Eric Hsu Fernanda Nechio | December 2016

05

Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism

Carlos Carvalho Andrea Ferrero Fernanda Nechio | April 2016

04

The Intensive and Extensive Margins of Real Wage Adjustment

Mary C. Daly Bart Hobijn | March 2016

03

Does the United States have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?

David M. Byrne John G. Fernald Marshall B. Reinsdorf | March 2016

02

Credit-Fuelled Bubbles

Antonio Doblas-Madrid Kevin J. Lansing | March 2016

01

Crisis Transmission through the Global Banking Network

Galina Hale Tumer Kapan Camelia Minoiu | February 2016

2015

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22

Disentangling Goods, Labor, and Credit Market Frictions in Three European Economies

Thomas Brzustowski Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau Etienne Wasmer | December 2015

21

Not So Disconnected: Exchange Rates and the Capital Stock

Tarek A. Hassan Thomas M. Mertens Tony Zhang | December 2015

20

Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy

Vasco Curdia Michael Woodford | December 2015

19

Cyclical and Market Determinants of Involuntary Part-Time Employment

Robert G. Valletta Leila Bengali Catherine van der List | December 2015

18

Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Dollar: Conventional Signs, Unconventional Magnitudes

Reuven Glick Sylvain Leduc | November 2015

17

Sticker Shocks: Using VAT Changes to Estimate Upper-Level Elasticities of Substitution

Bart Hobijn Fernanda Nechio | May 2017

16

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux

Thomas Laubach John C. Williams | October 2015

15

Robust Bond Risk Premia

Michael D. Bauer James D. Hamilton | May 2017

14

Aggregation Level in Stress Testing Models

Galina Hale John Krainer Erin McCarthy | September 2015

13

Robust Stress Testing

Rhys Bidder Andrew McKenna | September 2015

12

Is China Fudging its Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data

John G. Fernald Eric Hsu Mark M. Spiegel | September 2015

11

Currency Unions and Trade: A Post‐EMU Mea Culpa

Reuven Glick Andrew K. Rose | July 2015

10

Leveraged Bubbles

Oscar Jorda Moritz Schularick Alan M. Taylor | August 2015

09

Bond Vigilantes and Inflation

Andrew K. Rose Mark M. Spiegel | August 2015

08

Protecting Working-Age People with Disabilities: Experiences of Four Industrialized Nations

Richard V. Burkhauser Mary C. Daly Nicolas Ziebarth | June 2015

07

Physician Competition and the Provision of Care: Evidence from Heart Attacks

Abe Dunn Adam Hale Shapiro | May 2015

06

The Effect of State Taxes on the Geographical Location of Top Earners: Evidence from Star Scientists

Enrico Moretti Daniel J. Wilson | March 2017

05

Domestic Bond Markets and Inflation

Andrew K. Rose Mark M. Spiegel | February 2015

04

Does Medicare Part D Save Lives?

Abe Dunn Adam Hale Shapiro | September 2015

03

The Effect of Extended Unemployment Insurance Benefits: Evidence from the 2012-2013 Phase-Out

Henry S. Farber Jesse Rothstein Robert G. Valletta | January 2015

02

Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse-Engineering Approach

Paolo Gelain Kevin J. Lansing Gisele J. Natvik | November 2015

01

Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models

Michael D. Bauer Glenn D. Rudebusch | May 2016

2014

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28

Betting the House

Oscar Jorda Moritz Schularick Alan M. Taylor | December 2014

27

A Dynamic Model of Price Signaling, Consumer Learning, and Price Adjustment

Matthew Osborne Adam Hale Shapiro | November 2014

26

Financial Frictions, the Housing Market, and Unemployment

William A. Branch Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau Guillaume Rocheteau | November 2014

25

The International Transmission of Shocks: Foreign Bank Branches in Hong Kong during Crises

Simon H. Kwan Eric T.C. Wong Cho-hoi Hui | October 2014

24

Shopping Time

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau Etienne Wasmer Shutian Zeng | September 2014

23

The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles

Oscar Jorda Moritz Schularick Alan M. Taylor | September 2014

22

Explaining Exchange Rate Anomalies in a Model with Taylor-rule Fundamentals and Consistent Expectations

Kevin J. Lansing Jun Ma | June 2016

21

The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the U.K.

Carlos Carrillo-Tudela Bart Hobijn Powen She Ludo Visschers | August 2014

20

Financial Crises and the Composition of Cross-Border Lending

Eugenio Cerutti Galina Hale Camelia Minoiu | August 2014

19

The Rise in Home Currency Issuance

Galina Hale Peter Jones Mark M. Spiegel | May 2016

18

Transmission of Quantitative Easing: The Role of Central Bank Reserves

Jens H.E. Christensen Signe Krogstrup | June 2016

17

Monetary Policy and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models

Carlos Carvalho Fernanda Nechio | March 2015

16

Long-Run Risk is the Worst-Case Scenario

Rhys Bidder Ian Dew-Becker | May 2016

15

Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession

John G. Fernald | June 2014

14

A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment

Glenn D. Rudebusch John C. Williams | May 2014

13

Recent Extensions of U.S. Unemployment Benefits: Search Responses in Alternative Labor Market States

Robert G. Valletta | May 2014

12

Has U.S. Monetary Policy Tracked the Efficient Interest Rate?

Vasco Curdia Andrea Ferrero Ging Cee Ng Andrea Tambalotti | May 2014

11

Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Mary C. Daly John G. Fernald Oscar Jorda Fernanda Nechio | April 2014

10

The Euro and the Geography of International Debt Flows

Galina Hale Maurice Obstfeld | December 2014

09

Inflation Expectations and the News

Michael D. Bauer | March 2014

08

Did Consumers Want Less Debt? Consumer Credit Demand Versus Supply in the Wake of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis

Reint Gropp John Krainer Elizabeth Laderman | February 2014

07

Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model

John G. Fernald Mark M. Spiegel Eric T. Swanson | February 2014

06

Scraping By: Income and Program Participation After the Loss of Extended Unemployment Benefits

Jesse Rothstein Robert G. Valletta | April 2017

05

Mortgage Choice in the Housing Boom: Impacts of House Price Appreciation and Borrower Type

Frederick T. Furlong Yelena Takhtamanova David Lang | March 2014

04

Breaking the “Iron Rice Bowl:” Evidence of Precautionary Savings from Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Reform

Hui He Feng Huang Zheng Liu Dongming Zhu | February 2017

03

Can Spanned Term Structure Factors Drive Stochastic Yield Volatility?

Jens H.E. Christensen Jose A. Lopez Glenn D. Rudebusch | January 2014

02

The Future of U.S. Economic Growth

John G. Fernald Charles I. Jones | January 2014

01

Modernization and Discrete Measures of Democracy

Jess Benhabib Alejandro Corvalen Mark M. Spiegel | January 2014

2013

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40

Disability Benefit Growth and Disability Reform in the U.S.: Lessons from Other OECD Nations

Richard V. Burkhauser Mary C. Daly Duncan McVicar Roger Wilkins | December 2013

39

Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?

Jens H.E. Christensen Glenn D. Rudebusch | December 2013

38

A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income

Jens H.E. Christensen Jose A. Lopez Glenn D. Rudebusch | December 2013

37

Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences

Oscar Jorda Moritz Schularick Alan M. Taylor | February 2014

36

Physician Payments Under Health Care Reform

Abe Dunn Adam Hale Shapiro | March 2014

35

The Impact of Reserves Practices on Bank Opacity

Giuliano Iannotta Simon H. Kwan | July 2014

34

A Regime-Switching Model of the Yield Curve at the Zero Bound

Jens H. E. Christensen | January 2016

33

Optimal Monetary Policy and Capital Account Restrictions in a Small Open Economy

Zheng Liu Mark M. Spiegel | February 2015

32

Shocks to Firms

Mary C. Daly John G. Fernald Òscar Jordà Fernanda Nechio | March 2016

31

Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities

Carlos Carvalho Fernanda Nechio | August 2016

30

Implications of Labor Market Frictions for Risk Aversion and Risk Premia

Eric T. Swanson | September 2014

29

Frequency Shifting

Rhys Bidder | September 2013

28

Doubts and Variability: A Robust Perspective on Exotic Consumption Series

Rhys Bidder Matthew E. Smith | September 2015

27

The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share

Michael Elsby Bart Hobijn Aysegül Sahin | September 2013

26

Does Quantitative Easing Affect Market Liquidity?

Jens H. E. Christensen James M. Gillan | May 2017

25

The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy

Òscar Jordà Alan M. Taylor | September 2013

24

Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited

Joshua D. Angrist Òscar Jordà Guido M. Kuersteiner | August 2013

23

Temptation and Self-Control: Some Evidence and Applications

Kevin X. D. Huang Zheng Liu Qi Zhu | August 2013

22

Land Prices and Unemployment

Zheng Liu Jianjun Miao Tao Zha | March 2016

21

Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Yields and Exchange Rates in the U.K. and Germany

Eric T. Swanson John C. Williams | August 2013

20

The Effect of Capital Controls and Prudential FX Measures on Options-Implied Exchange Rate Stability

Marius del Giudice Rodriguez Thomas Wu | September 2013

19

Assessing the Historical Role of Credit: Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and the Legacy of Charles S. Peirce

Òscar Jordà | July 2013

18

Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound

Michael D. Bauer Glenn D. Rudebusch | May 2015

17

State Incentives for Innovation, Star Scientists and Jobs: Evidence from Biotech

Enrico Moretti Daniel J. Wilson | July 2013

16

Are State Governments Roadblocks to Federal Stimulus? Evidence on the Flypaper Effect of Highway Grants in the 2009 Recovery Act

Sylvain Leduc Daniel J. Wilson | April 2016

15

A Defense of Moderation in Monetary Policy

John C. Williams | July 2013

14

Bank Linkages and International Trade

Galina Hale Christopher Candelaria Julian Caballero Sergey Borisov | February 2016

13

Inequality and Mortality: New Evidence from U.S. County Panel Data

Mary C. Daly Daniel J. Wilson | May 2013

12

China’s Financial Linkages with Asia and the Global Financial Crisis

Reuven Glick Michael M. Hutchison | May 2013

11

The Effects of Unconventional and Conventional U.S. Monetary Policy on the Dollar

Reuven Glick Sylvain Leduc | May 2013

10

Is Asia Decoupling from the United States (Again)?

Sylvain Leduc Mark M. Spiegel | May 2013

09

Do Extended Unemployment Benefits Lengthen Unemployment Spells? Evidence from Recent Cycles in the U.S. Labor Market

Henry S. Farber Robert G. Valletta | April 2013

08

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities Bend the Phillips Curve

Mary C. Daly Bart Hobijn | January 2014

07

Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields

Jens H. E. Christensen Glenn D. Rudebusch | June 2013

06

Persistence of Regional Inequality in China

Christopher Candelaria Mary C. Daly Galina Hale | March 2013

05

On the Importance of the Participation Margin for Market Fluctuations

Michael Elsby Bart Hobijn Aysegül Sahin | February 2013

04

Price Setting in an Innovative Market

Adam Copeland Adam Hale Shapiro | March 2013

03

House Prices, Expectations, and Time-Varying Fundamentals

Paolo Gelain Kevin J. Lansing | May 2014

02

Monetary Regime Change and Business Cycles

Vasco Cúrdia Daria Finocchiaro | October 2012

01

Rare Shocks, Great Recessions

Vasco Cúrdia Marco Del Negro Daniel L. Greenwald | January 2013

2012

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26

Decomposing Medical-Care Expenditure Growth

Abe Dunn Eli Liebman Adam Hale Shapiro | November 2012

25

House Lock and Structural Unemployment

Robert G. Valletta | April 2013

24

Beveridge Curve Shifts across Countries since the Great Recession

Bart Hobijn Aysegül Sahin | July 2013

23

Top Incomes, Rising Inequality, and Welfare

Kevin J. Lansing Agnieszka Markiewicz | June 2016

22

The Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs

Han Chen Vasco Cúrdia Andrea Ferrero | October 2012

21

The Economic Security Index: A New Measure for Research and Policy Analysis

Jacob S. Hacker Gregory Huber Austin Nichols Philipp Rehm Mark Schlesinger Robert G. Valletta Stuart Craig | October 2012

20

Housing Supply and Foreclosures

William Hedberg John Krainer | September 2012

19

A Quarterly, Utilization-Adjusted Series on Total Factor Productivity

John G. Fernald | April 2014

18

Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession

John G. Fernald | September 2012

17

Risk Aversion, Risk Premia, and the Labor Margin with Generalized Recursive Preferences

Eric T. Swanson | September 2013

16

Relative Status and Well-Being: Evidence from U.S. Suicide Deaths

Mary C. Daly Daniel J. Wilson Norman J. Johnson | September 2012

15

Infrastructure Spending as Fiscal Stimulus: Assessing the Evidence

Sylvain Leduc Daniel J. Wilson | February 2016

14

Mussa Redux and Conditional PPP

Paul R. Bergin Reuven Glick Jyh-Lin Wu | September 2012

13

Capital Controls and Optimal Chinese Monetary Policy

Chun Chang Zheng Liu Mark M. Spiegel | January 2015

12

International Channels of the Fed's Unconventional Monetary Policy

Michael D. Bauer Christopher J. Neely | December 2013

11

House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy

Paolo Gelain Kevin J. Lansing Caterina Mendicino | February 2013

10

Uncertainty Shocks are Aggregate Demand Shocks

Sylvain Leduc Zheng Liu | May 2015

09

The Industry-Occupation Mix of U.S. Job Openings and Hires

Bart Hobijn | July 2012

08

Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models with Capital

Carlos Carvalho Fernanda Nechio | July 2012

07

Pricing Deflation Risk with U.S. Treasury Yields

Jens H. E. Christensen Jose A. Lopez Glenn D. Rudebusch | July 2014

06

The Response of Interest Rates to U.S. and U.K. Quantitative Easing

Jens H. E. Christensen Glenn D. Rudebusch | May 2012

05

Empirical Simultaneous Prediction Regions for Path-Forecasts

Òscar Jordá Malte Knuppel Massimiliano Marcellino | May 2012

04

Roads to Prosperity or Bridges to Nowhere? Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment

Sylvain Leduc Daniel J. Wilson | June 2012

03

Lost in Translation? Teacher Training and Outcomes in High School Economics Classes

Robert G. Valletta K. Jody Hoff Jane S. Lopus | April 2013

02

Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates

Eric T. Swanson John C. Williams | January 2013

01

Do People Understand Monetary Policy?

Carlos Carvalho Fernanda Nechio | April 2014

2011

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30

Central Bank Announcements of Asset Purchases and the Impact on Global Financial and Commodity Markets

Reuven Glick Sylvain Leduc | December 2011

29

The Labor Market in the Great Recession: An Update

Michael Elsby Bart Hobijn Aysegül Sahin Robert G. Valletta | October 2011

28

A Chronology of Turning Points in Economic Activity: Spain, 1850-2011

Travis J. Berge Òscar Jordà | November 2011

27

When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises

Òscar Jordà Moritz Schularick Alan M. Taylor | October 2012

26

Land-Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Zheng Liu Pengfei Wang Tao Zha | September 2011

25

Prepayment and Delinquency in the Mortgage Crisis Period

John Krainer Elizabeth Laderman | September 2011

24

Evidence and Implications of Regime Shifts: Time-Varying Effects of the U.S. and Japanese Economies on House Prices in Hawaii

John Krainer James A. Wilcox | July 2012

23

Dissecting Aggregate Real Wage Fluctuations: Individual Wage Growth and the Composition Effect

Mary C. Daly Bart Hobijn Theodore S. Wiles | May 2012

22

Currency Crises

Reuven Glick Michael M. Hutchison | September 2011

21

The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases

Michael D. Bauer Glenn D. Rudebusch | April 2013

20

Nominal Interest Rates and the News

Michael D. Bauer | January 2014

19

Gender Ratios at Top PhD Programs in Economics

Galina Hale Tali Regev | August 2011

18

Dollar Illiquidity and Central Bank Swap Arrangements during the Global Financial Crisis

Andrew K. Rose Mark M. Spiegel | August 2011

17

New Evidence on Cyclical and Structural Sources of Unemployment

Zinzhu Chen Prakash Kannan Prakash Loungani Bharat Trehan | May 2011

16

Could the U.S. Treasury Benefit from Issuing More TIPS?

Jens H. E. Christensen James M. Gillan | June 2012

15

Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in a Leveraged Economy

Sylvain Leduc Jean-Marc Natal | April 2015

14

Bank Relationships, Business Cycles, and Financial Crises

Galina Hale | July 2011

13

The Impact of Creditor Protection on Stock Prices in the Presence of Credit Crunches

Galina Hale Assaf Razin Hui Tong | April 2011

12

Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models

Michael D. Bauer Glenn D. Rudebusch Jing (Cynthia) Wu | April 2012

11

Trust in Public Institutions over the Business Cycle

Betsey Stevenson Justin Wolfers | March 2011

10

Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields

Jens H. E. Christensen Jose A. Lopez Glenn D. Rudebusch | February 2011

09

Reestablishing the Income-Democracy Nexus

Jess Benhabib Alejandro Corvalen Mark M. Spiegel | February 2011

08

Let's Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-Study Analysis of Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2

Eric T. Swanson | February 2011

07

Asset Pricing with Concentrated Ownership of Capital and Distribution Shocks

Kevin J. Lansing | August 2015

06

The Wage Premium Puzzle and the Quality of Human Capital

Milton H. Marquis Bharat Trehan Wuttipan Tantivong | February 2011

05

A Rising Natural Rate of Unemployment: Transitory or Permanent?

Mary C. Daly Bart Hobijn Robert G. Valletta | September 2011

04

Evidence on Financial Globalization and Crisis: Capital Raisings

Galina Hale | January 2011

03

Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models

Michael D. Bauer | March 2016

02

Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update

Andrew K. Rose Mark M. Spiegel | January 2011

01

Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?

Hess Chung Jean-Philippe Laforte David L. Reifschneider John C. Williams | January 2011

2010

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32

Which Industries are Shifting the Beveridge Curve?

Regis Barnichon Michael Elsby Bart Hobijn Aysegül Sahin | October 2011

31

The State of the Safety Net in the Post-Welfare Reform Era

Marianne Bitler Hilary W. Hoynes | October 2010

30

The Happiness-Suicide Paradox

Mary C. Daly Andrew J. Oswald Daniel J. Wilson Stephen Wu | February 2010

29

On Variance Bounds for Asset Price Changes

Kevin J. Lansing | May 2015

28

Subjective Well-Being, Income, Economic Development and Growth

Daniel W. Sacks Betsey Stevenson Justin Wolfers | September 2010

27

The 2007-09 Financial Crisis and Bank Opaqueness

Mark J. Flannery Simon H. Kwan Mahendrarajah Nimalendran | September 2010

26

Foreign Stock Holdings: The Role of Information

Fernanda Nechio | September 2014

25

Job Creation Tax Credits, Fiscal Foresight, and Job Growth: Evidence from U.S. States

Robert S. Chirinko Daniel J. Wilson | November 2016

24

Risk Aversion, Investor Information, and Stock Market Volatility

Kevin J. Lansing Stephen F. LeRoy | April 2014

23

Entry Dynamics and the Decline in Exchange-Rate Pass-Through

Christopher J. Gust Sylvain Leduc Robert J. Vigfusson | September 2010

22

Credit Constraints and Self-Fulfilling Business Cycles

Zheng Liu Pengfei Wang | September 2011

21

If You Try, You'll Get By: Chinese Private Firms' Efficiency Gains from Overcoming Financial Constraints

Galina Hale Cheryl Long | January 2011

20

Asset Class Diversification and Delegation of Responsibilities between Central Banks and Sovereign Wealth Funds

Joshua Aizenman Reuven Glick | September 2010

19

China's Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate

Aaron Mehrotra José R. Sánchez-Fung | September 2010

18

Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore

John G. Fernald Brent Neiman | May 2010

17

Fiscal Spending Jobs Multipliers: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

Daniel J. Wilson | October 2011

16

Technology Diffusion and Postwar Growth

Diego Comin Bart Hobijn | June 2010

15

The Illusive Quest: Do International Capital Controls Contribute to Currency Stability?

Reuven Glick Michael M. Hutchison | May 2010

14

The Micro-Macro Disconnect of Purchasing Power Parity

Paul R. Bergin Reuven Glick Jyh-Lin Wu | May 2010

13

Optimal Monetary Policy in Open Economies

Giancarlo Corsetti Luca Dedola Sylvain Leduc | June 2010

12

Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations

Athanasios Orphanides John C. Williams | May 2011

11

Financial Crisis and Bank Lending

Simon H. Kwan | May 2010

10

Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy

John B. Taylor John C. Williams | April 2010

09

Expectations and Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Survey Data

Sylvain Leduc Keith Sill | February 2010

08

Do Banks Propagate Debt Market Shocks?

Galina Hale João A. C. Santos | December 2013

07

The Labor Market in the Great Recession

Michael Elsby Bart Hobijn Aysegül Sahin | March 2010

06

Aggregation and the PPP Puzzle in a Sticky Price Model

Carlos Carvalho Fernanda Nechio | August 2010

05

Should the Central Bank Be Concerned About Housing Prices?

Karsten Jeske Zheng Liu | December 2010

04

Bond Currency Denomination and the Yen Carry Trade

Christopher Candelaria Jose A. Lopez Mark M. Spiegel | February 2010

03

Inaccurate Age and Sex Data in the Census PUMS Files: Evidence and Implications

J. Trent Alexander Michael Davern Betsey Stevenson | January 2010

02

Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures: Selecting Among Multiple Discretionary Equilibria

Richard Dennis Tatiana Kirsanova | August 2010

01

Macro-Finance Models of Interest Rates and the Economy

Glenn D. Rudebusch | January 2010

2009

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29

Can Lower Tax Rates Be Bought? Business Rent-Seeking and Tax Competition Among U.S. States

Robert S. Chirinko Daniel J. Wilson | June 2010

28

Do Credit Constraints Amplify Macroeconomic Fluctuations?

Zheng Liu Pengfei Wang Tao Zha | December 2009

27

Financial Choice in a Non-Ricardian Model of Trade

Katheryn N. Russ Diego Valderrama | November 2009

26

Risk Aversion, the Labor Margin, and Asset Pricing in DSGE Models

Eric T. Swanson | October 2009

25

A Theory of Banks, Bonds, and the Distribution of Firm Size

Katheryn N. Russ Diego Valderrama | October 2009

24

The Role of Capital Service-Life in a Model with Heterogenous Labor and Vintage Capital

Milton H. Marquis Wuttipan Tantivong Bharat Trehan | October 2009

23

Heeding Daedalus: Optimal Inflation and the Zero Lower Bound

John C. Williams | October 2009

22

Mortgage Loan Securitization and Relative Loan Performance

John Krainer Elizabeth Laderman | November 2011

21

A State Level Database for the Manufacturing Sector: Construction and Sources

Robert S. Chirinko Daniel J. Wilson | October 2009

20

Mortgage Default and Mortgage Valuation

John Krainer Stephen F. LeRoy Munpyung O | September 2009

19

Household Inflation Experiences in the U.S.: A Comprehensive Approach

Bart Hobijn Kristin Mayer Carter Stennis Giorgio Topa | September 2009

18

Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure

Andrew K. Rose Mark M. Spiegel | September 2009

17

Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning

Andrew K. Rose Mark M. Spiegel | July 2009

16

Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks

Jean-Marc Natal | August 2009

15

Welfare-Based Optimal Monetary Policy with Unemployment and Sticky Prices: A Linear-Quadratic Framework

Federico Ravenna Carl E. Walsh | May 2009

14

Foreign Entry into Underwriting Services: Evidence from Japan's "Big Bang" Deregulation

Mark M. Spiegel Jose A. Lopez | June 2009

13

Do Central Bank Liquidity Facilities Affect Interbank Lending Rates?

Jens H. E. Christensen Jose A. Lopez Glenn D. Rudebusch | June 2009

12

The Welfare Consequences of Monetary Policy

Federico Ravenna Carl E. Walsh | April 2009

11

The Paradox of Declining Female Happiness

Betsey Stevenson Justin Wolfers | May 2009

10

Survey Measures of Expected Inflation and the Inflation Process

Bharat Trehan | February 2010

09

The International Dimension of Productivity and Demand Shocks in the US Economy

Giancarlo Corsetti Luca Dedola Sylvain Leduc | May 2009

08

The Effect of an Employer Health Insurance Mandate on Health Insurance Coverage and the Demand for Labor: Evidence from Hawaii

Thomas C. Buchmueller John DiNardo Robert G. Valletta | April 2011

07

Beyond Kuznets: Persistent Regional Inequality in China

Christopher Candelaria Mary C. Daly Galina Hale | November 2010

06

The Olympic Effect

Andrew K. Rose Mark M. Spiegel | March 2009

05

What Do We Know and Not Know about Potential Output?

Susanto Basu John G. Fernald | March 2009

04

Unemployment Dynamics in the OECD

Michael Elsby Bart Hobijn Aysegül Sahin | February 2011

03

CONDI: A Cost-Of-Nominal-Distortions Index

Stefano Eusepi Bart Hobijn Andrea Tambalotti | February 2009

02

EAD Calibration for Corporate Credit Lines

Gabriel Jiménez Jose A. Lopez Jesús Saurina | January 2009

01

Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Regime-Switching DSGE Approach

Zheng Liu Daniel F. Waggoner Tao Zha | April 2010

2008

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35

Consumption-Habits in a New Keynesian Business Cycle Model

Richard Dennis | December 2008

34

Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields

Jens H. E. Christensen Jose A. Lopez Glenn D. Rudebusch | January 2010

33

Sovereign Wealth Funds: Stylized Facts about Their Determinance and Governance

Joshua Aizenman Reuven Glick | December 2008

32

Navigating the Trilemma: Capital Flows and Monetary Policy in China

Reuven Glick Michael M. Hutchison | December 2008

31

The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks

Glenn D. Rudebusch Eric T. Swanson | March 2009

30

The Adjustments of Hours and Real Wages to Technology Shocks: Assessing the Role of Nominal Rigidities

Zheng Liu Louis Phaneuf | August 2011

29

Exporting Deflation? Chinese Exports and Japanese Prices

David E. Weinstein Christian Broda | April 2008

28

China's Exporters and Importers: Firms, Products, and Trade Partners

Kalina Manova Zhiwei Zhang | June 2008

27

Why Do Foreigners Invest in the United States?

Kristin J. Forbes | October 2008

26

Current Account Dynamics and Monetary Policy

Andrea Ferrero Mark Gertler Lars E. O. Svensson | November 2008

25

When Bonds Matter: Home Bias in Goods and Assets

Nicolas Coeurdacier Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas | November 2008

24

Inventories, Lumpy Trade, and Large Devaluations

George Alessandria Joseph P. Kaboski Virgiliu Midrigan | January 2008

23

How Much of South Korea's Growth Miracle Can Be Explained by Trade Policy?

Michelle P. Connolly Kei-Mu Yi | November 2008

22

Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts in Monetary Policy

Zheng Liu Daniel F. Waggoner Tao Zha | September 2008

21

When is Discretion Superior to Timeless Perspective Policymaking?

Richard Dennis | January 2010

20

Who Drove the Boom in Euro-Denominated Bond Issues?

Galina Hale Mark M. Spiegel | March 2009

19

Happiness, Unhappiness, and Suicide: An Empirical Assessment

Mary C. Daly Daniel J. Wilson | August 2008

18

Learning, Adaptive Expectations, and Technology Shocks

Kevin X. D. Huang Zheng Liu Tao Zha | September 2008

17

Loan Officers and Relationship Lending to SMEs

Hirofumi Uchida Gregory F. Udell Nobuyoshi Yamori | July 2008

16

The Adjustment of Global External Balances: Does Partial Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Trade Prices Matter?

Christopher J. Gust Sylvain Leduc Nathan Sheets | June 2008

15

Sterilization, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Integration

Joshua Aizenman Reuven Glick | August 2008

14

Do Banks Price their Informational Monopoly?

Galina Hale Joao A. C. Santos | February 2008

13

Understanding Changes in Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Yelena Takhtamanova | February 2008

12

Climate Change and Housing Prices: Hedonic Estimates for North American Ski Resorts

Van Butsic Ellen Hanak Robert G. Valletta | November 2009

11

Monetary and Financial Integration in the EMU: Push or Pull?

Mark M. Spiegel | July 2008

10

Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy Discipline

Mark M. Spiegel | July 2008

09

Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy

Athanasios Orphanides John C. Williams | July 2008

08

Speculative Growth, Overreaction, and the Welfare Cost of Technology-Driven Bubbles

Kevin J. Lansing | February 2012

07

An Arbitrage-Free Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model

Jens H. E. Christensen Francis X. Diebold Glenn D. Rudebusch | May 2008

06

Capital-Labor Substitution and Equilibrium Indeterminacy

Jang-Ting Guo Kevin J. Lansing | June 2009

05

Learning, Expectations Formation, and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy

Athanasios Orphanides John C. Williams | April 2008

04

A Black Swan in the Money Market

John B. Taylor John C. Williams | April 2008

03

Tax Competition among U.S. States: Racing to the Bottom or Riding on a Seesaw?

Robert S. Chirinko Daniel J. Wilson | March 2017

02

Takeoffs

Joshua Aizenman Mark M. Spiegel | April 2007

01

International Financial Remoteness and Macroeconomic Volatility

Andrew K. Rose Mark M. Spiegel | November 2007

2007

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33

Subprime Mortgage Delinquency Rates

Mark Doms Frederick T. Furlong John Krainer | November 2007

32

Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation

Peter Blair Henry | January 2007

31

Capital Controls: Myth and Reality, A Portfolio Balance Approach to Capital Controls

Nicolas E. Magud Carmen M. Reinhart Kenneth S. Rogoff | November 2007

30

Financial Integration in East Asia

Hiroshi Fujiki Akiko Terada-Hagiwara | April 2007

29

Optimal Reserve Management and Sovereign Debt

Laura Alfaro Fabio Kanczuk | November 2007

28

The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data

Charles Yuji Horioka Junmin Wan | January 2007

27

The International Dimension of U.S. Expansions: A Structural VAR Analysis

Giancarlo Corsetti Luca Dedola Sylvain Leduc | October 2008

26

Pricing-to-Market, Trade Costs, and International Relative Prices

Andrew Atkeson Ariel Burstein | May 2007

25

Examining the Bond Premium Puzzle with a DSGE Model

Glenn D. Rudebusch Eric T. Swanson | July 2008

24

Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area

Michael Ehrmann Marcel Fratzscher Refet S. Gürkaynak Eric T. Swanson | November 2008

23

How Does Competition Impact Bank Risk-Taking?

Gabriel Jiménez Jose A. Lopez Jesús Saurina | September 2007

22

Determinants of Access to External Finance: Evidence from Spanish Firms

Raquel Lago González Jose A. Lopez Jesús Saurina | September 2007

21

Regional Economic Conditions and the Variability of Rates of Return in Commercial Banking

Frederick T. Furlong John Krainer | September 2007

20

The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models

Jens H. E. Christensen Francis X. Diebold Glenn D. Rudebusch | March 2010

19

Learning and Optimal Monetary Policy

Richard Dennis Federico Ravenna | July 2007

18

Imperfect Information, Self-Selection, and the Market for Higher Education

Tali Regev | August 2007

17

Do Countries Default in "Bad Times"?

Michael Tomz Mark L. J. Wright | May 2007

16

Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve

Glenn D. Rudebusch John C. Williams | July 2008

15

Real Wage Cyclicality in the PSID

Eric T. Swanson | July 2007

14

Empirical Analysis of Corporate Credit Lines

Gabriel Jiménez Jose A. Lopez Jesús Saurina | June 2007

13

The Composition of Capital Inflows when Emerging Market Firms Face Financing Constraints

Katherine A. Smith Diego Valderrama | May 2008

12

Relative Status and Well-Being: Evidence from U.S. Suicide Deaths

Mary C. Daly Daniel J. Wilson Norman J. Johnson | July 2010

11

Welfare-Maximizing Monetary Policy under Parameter Uncertainty

Rochelle M. Edge Thomas Laubach John C. Williams | May 2008

10

Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles without Drift

Kevin J. Lansing | October 2009

09

How Robustness Can Lower the Cost of Discretion

Richard Dennis | June 2010

08

Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge

Athanasios Orphanides John C. Williams | April 2007

07

Market Power and Relationships in Small Business Lending

Elizabeth Laderman | January 2007

06

Productivity Shocks in a Model with Vintage Capital and Heterogeneous Labor

Milton H. Marquis Bharat Trehan | January 2007

05

Innovations in Mortgage Markets and Increased Spending on Housing

Mark Doms John Krainer | July 2007

04

Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Preference for Robustness

Richard Dennis Kai Leitemo Ulf Söderström | April 2009

03

Marriage and Divorce: Changes and Their Driving Forces

Betsey Stevenson Justin Wolfers | February 2007

02

Currency Crises and Foreign Credit in Emerging Markets: Credit Crunch or Demand Effect?

Galina Hale Carlos O. Arteta | January 2007

01

Wealth Effects out of Financial and Housing Wealth: Cross Country and Age Group Comparisons

Eva Sierminska Yelena Takhtamanova | January 2007

2006

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50

Global Price Dispersion: Are Prices Converging or Diverging?

Paul R. Bergin Reuven Glick | December 2006

49

State Investment Tax Incentives: What Are the Facts?

Robert S. Chirinko Daniel J. Wilson | November 2006

48

Unemployment Insurance and the Uninsured

Tali Regev | December 2006

47

State Investment Tax Incentives: A Zero-Sum Game?

Robert S. Chirinko Daniel J. Wilson | July 2008

46

Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium

Glenn D. Rudebusch Brian P. Sack Eric T. Swanson | November 2006

45

Foreign Bank Lending and Bond Underwriting in Japan During the Lost Decade

Jose A. Lopez Mark M. Spiegel | November 2006

44

Beyond the Classroom: Using Title IX to Measure the Return to High School Sports

Betsey Stevenson | March 2006

43

The Impact of Divorce Laws on Marriage-Specific Capital

Betsey Stevenson | July 2006

42

Evidence on the Costs and Benefits of Bond IPOs

Galina Hale João A. C. Santos | September 2006

41

Exchange-Rate Effects on China's Trade: An Interim Report

Jaime R. Marquez John W. Schindler | May 2006

40

Global Current Account Adjustment: A Decomposition

Michael B. Devereux Amartya Lahiri Ke Pang | May 2006

39

Saving and Interest Rates in Japan: Why They Have Fallen and Why They Will Remain Low

R. Anton Braun Daisuke Ikeda Douglas H. Joines | May 2006

38

The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Expected Share of World Output

Charles Engel John H. Rogers | March 2006

37

A Quantitative Analysis of China's Structural Transformation

Robert Dekle Guillaume Vandenbroucke | May 2006

36

Dual Labor Markets and Business Cycles

David Cook Hiromi Nosaka | September 2005

35

Incomplete Information Processing: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle

Philippe Bacchetta Eric van Wincoop | June 2006

34

Computer Use and the U.S. Wage Distribution, 1984-2003

Robert G. Valletta | October 2006

33

Non-Economic Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental Treaties

Andrew K. Rose Mark M. Spiegel | October 2006

32

Moderate Inflation and the Deflation-Depression Link

Jess Benhabib Mark M. Spiegel | October 2006

31

Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections

Glenn D. Rudebusch John C. Williams | October 2006

30

Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Economy with Learning

John C. Williams | September 2006

29

Information and Communications Technology as a General-Purpose Technology: Evidence from U.S Industry Data

Susanto Basu John G. Fernald | December 2006

28

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information

Michele Cavallo Tao Wu | September 2006

27

Safe and Sound Banking, 20 Years Later: What Was Proposed and What Has Been Adopted

Frederick T. Furlong Simon H. Kwan | August 2006

26

Aggregate Shocks or Aggregate Information? Costly Information and Business Cycle Comovement

Laura Veldkamp Justin Wolfers | September 2006

25

Did Foreign Direct Investment Put an Upward Pressure on Wages in China?

Galina Hale Cheryl Long | May 2008

24

Endogenous Skill Bias in Technology Adoption: City-Level Evidence from the IT Revolution

Paul Beaudry Mark Doms Ethan Lewis | August 2006

23

Futures Prices as Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy

Monika Piazzesi Eric T. Swanson | September 2006

22

The Frequency of Price Adjustment Viewed Through the Lens of Aggregate Data

Richard Dennis | November 2009

21

Sovereign Debt Crises and Credit to the Private Sector

Carlos O. Arteta Galina Hale | December 2006

20

The Relative Price and Relative Productivity Channels for Aggregate Fluctuations

Eric T. Swanson | June 2006

19

Quantitative Easing and Japanese Bank Equity Values

Takeshi Kobayashi Mark M. Spiegel Nobuyoshi Yamori | July 2006

18

Labor Supply and Personal Computer Adoption

Mark Doms Ethan Lewis | June 2006

17

Measuring the Miracle: Market Imperfections and Asia's Growth Experience

John G. Fernald Brent Neiman | May 2006

16

The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective

Glenn D. Rudebusch Eric T. Swanson Tao Wu | May 2006

15

Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Kevin J. Lansing | August 2008

14

Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge

Athanasios Orphanides John C. Williams | April 2006

13

Are There Productivity Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment in China?

Galina Hale Cheryl Long | February 2008

12

Keeping Up with the Joneses and Staying Ahead of the Smiths: Evidence from Suicide Data

Mary C. Daly Daniel J. Wilson | May 2006

11

Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities

Justin Wolfers Eric Zitzewitz | April 2006

10

Methods for Robust Control

Richard Dennis Kai Leitemo Ulf Söderström | March 2009

09

Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden

Refet S. Gürkaynak Andrew T. Levin Eric T. Swanson | March 2006

08

Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections

Erik Snowberg Justin Wolfers Eric Zitzewitz | February 2006

07

Pegged Exchange Rate Regimes -- A Trap?

Joshua Aizenman Reuven Glick | September 2005

06

Five Open Questions about Prediction Markets

Justin Wolfers Eric Zitzewitz | January 2006

05

Sovereign Debt, Volatility, and Insurance

Kenneth M. Kletzer | February 2005

04

Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations

Refet S. Gürkaynak Brian P. Sack Eric T. Swanson | January 2006

03

Could Capital Gains Smooth a Current Account Rebalancing?

Michele Cavallo Cédric Tille | January 2006

02

Monetary Policy Shocks, Inventory Dynamics, and Price-setting Behavior

Yongseung Jung Tack Yun | August 2005

01

Higher-Order Perturbation Solutions to Dynamic, Discrete-Time Rational Expectations Models

Eric T. Swanson Gary S. Anderson Andrew T. Levin | January 2006

2005

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26

Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk

Refet S. Gürkaynak Justin Wolfers | September 2005

25

Why Has the U.S. Beveridge Curve Shifted Back? New Evidence Using Regional Data

Robert G. Valletta | December 2005

24

Optimal Nonlinear Policy: Signal Extraction with a Non-Normal Prior

Eric T. Swanson | December 2005

23

Markov Perfect Industry Dynamics with Many Firms

Gabriel Y. Weintraub C. Lanier Benkard Benjamin Van Roy | November 2005

22

Empirical Analysis of the Average Asset Correlation for Real Estate Investment Trusts

Jose A. Lopez | October 2005

21

Trend Breaks, Long-Run Restrictions, and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Improvements

John G. Fernald | June 2008

20

Robust Control with Commitment: A Modification to Hansen-Sargent

Richard Dennis | December 2006

19

Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?

Glenn D. Rudebusch | August 2006

18

Accounting for the Secular "Decline" of U.S. Manufacturing

Milton H. Marquis Bharat Trehan | September 2006

17

Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge

Athanasios Orphanides John C. Williams | October 2005

16

Government Employment Expenditure and the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks

Michele Cavallo | September 2005

15

Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models

Andrew T. Levin Alexei Onatski John C. Williams Noah Williams | July 2005

14

The Value of Knowledge Spillovers

Yi Deng | June 2005

13

Tradability, Productivity, and Understanding International Economic Integration

Paul R. Bergin Reuven Glick | September 2005

12

The IMF in a World of Private Capital Markets

Barry Eichengreen Kenneth M. Kletzer Ashoka Mody | February 2005

11

Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War

Reuven Glick Alan M. Taylor | August 2005

10

Maintenance Expenditures and Indeterminacy under Increasing Returns to Scale

Jang-Ting Guo Kevin J. Lansing | July 2006

09

How Have Borrowers Fared in Banking Mega-mergers?

Kenneth A. Carow Edward J. Kane Rajesh P. Narayanan | March 2005

08

Beggar Thy Neighbor? The In-State, Out-of-State, and Aggregate Effects of R&D Tax Credits

Daniel J. Wilson | August 2008

07

Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Costs of Floating

Michele Cavallo Kate Kisselev Fabrizio Perri Nouriel Roubini | May 2005

06

Alternative Measures of the Federal Reserve Banks' Cost of Equity Capital

Michelle L. Barnes Jose A. Lopez | October 2005

05

Offshore Financial Centers: Parasites or Symbionts?

Andrew K. Rose Mark M. Spiegel | May 2005

04

Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics

Francis X. Diebold Monika Piazzesi Glenn D. Rudebusch | January 2005

03

Government Consumption Expenditures and the Current Account

Michele Cavallo | February 2005

02

On Using Relative Prices to Measure Capital Specific Technological Progress

Milton H. Marquis Bharat Trehan | March 2005

01

The Welfare Consequences of ATM Surcharges: Evidence from a Structural Entry Model

Gautam Gowrisankaran John Krainer | October 2005

2004

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35

Dollar Bloc or Dollar Block: External Currency Pricing and the East Asian Crisis

David Cook Michael B. Devereux | May 2004

34

Private Capital Flows, Capital Controls, and Default Risk

Mark L. J. Wright | August 2004

33

Putting the Brakes on Sudden Stops: The Financial Frictions-Moral Hazard Tradeoff of Asset Price Guarantees

Enrique G. Mendoza Ceyhun Bora Durdu | September 2004

32

Country Spreads and Emerging Countries: Who Drives Whom?

Mart´in Uribe Vivian Z. Yue | October 2003

31

Defaultable Debt, Interest Rates, and the Current Account

Mark Aguiar Gita Gopinath | May 2004

30

Monetary Policy and the Currency Denomination of Debt: A Tale of Two Equilibria

Roberto Chang Andres Velasco | August 2004

29

How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship between Growth and Volatility?

M. Ayhan Kose Eswar S. Prasad Marco E. Terrones | May 2004

28

When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion

Fernando Broner Gaston Gelos Carmen M. Reinhart | July 2004

27

Market Price Accounting and Depositor Discipline in Japanese Regional Banks

Mark M. Spiegel Nobuyoshi Yamori | May 2004

26

Deposit Insurance, Regulatory Forbearance and Economic Growth: Implications for the Japanese Banking Crisis

Robert Dekle Kenneth M. Kletzer | January 2004

25

Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No-Arbitrage and Macro-Finance Models

Glenn D. Rudebusch Tao Wu | November 2005

24

North-South Technological Diffusion and Dynamic Gains from Trade

Michelle P. Connolly Diego Valderrama | July 2005

23

Implications of Intellectual Property Rights for Dynamic Gains from Trade

Michelle P. Connolly Diego Valderrama | July 2005

22

Using a Long-Term Interest Rate as the Monetary Policy Instrument

Bruce McGough Glenn D. Rudebusch John C. Williams | December 2004

21

Investment Behavior of U.S. Firms over Heterogeneous Capital Goods: A Snapshot

Daniel J. Wilson | March 2006

20

Financial Contracting and the Choice between Private Placement and Publicly Offered Bonds

Simon H. Kwan Willard T. Carleton | November 2004

19

Testing the Strong Form of Market Discipline: The Effects of Public Market Signals on Bank Risk

Simon H. Kwan | November 2004

18

The Ins and Outs of Poverty in Advanced Economies: Poverty Dynamics in Canada, Germany, Great Britain, and the United States

Robert G. Valletta | November 2004

17

Specifying and Estimating New Keynesian Models with Instrument Rules and Optimal Monetary Policies

Richard Dennis | January 2005

16

Asset Price Declines and Real Estate Market Illiquidity: Evidence from Japanese Land Values

John Krainer Mark M. Spiegel Nobuyoshi Yamori | January 2005

15

Currency Crises, Capital Account Liberalization, and Selection Bias

Reuven Glick Xueyan Guo Michael M. Hutchison | June 2005

14

Transition Dynamics in Vintage Capital Models: Explaining the Postwar Catch-Up of Germany and Japan

Simon Gilchrist John C. Williams | July 2004

13

IT and Beyond: The Contribution of Heterogeneous Capital to Productivity

Daniel J. Wilson | May 2008

12

Why the Apple Doesn't Fall Far: Understanding Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital

Sandra E. Black Paul Devereux Kjell Salvanes | July 2004

11

Robust Estimation and Monetary Policy with Unobserved Structural Change

John C. Williams | July 2004

10

Time-Varying Equilibrium Real Rates and Monetary Policy Analysis

Bharat Trehan Tao Wu | June 2004

09

Consumer Sentiment, the Economy, and the News Media

Mark Doms Norman J. Morin | July 2004

08

Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle

Paul R. Bergin Reuven Glick Alan M. Taylor | June 2004