We produce a wide range of publications that share the latest data, analysis, and insights from various teams at the SF Fed. Our publications help inform and strengthen public understanding of economic issues and its impact on people and communities.
Economic Research Publications
FRBSF Economic Letter >
Economic analysis for general audiences
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Fed Communications and Inflation Expectations
Monetary policy surprises—changes in various interest rates around central bank communication events—reflect new information in monetary policy actions and communications. For the Federal Reserve, surprises around Federal Open Market Committee statements and post-meeting press conferences have, in recent years, often led to meaningful market surprises that capture policy news. Event-study analysis provides new market-based evidence of monetary policy transmission: Hawkish policy surprises lower market-based inflation expectations, while dovish surprises raise them, in line with standard monetary transmission. These effects are especially strong at longer horizons.
SF FedViews >
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook
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SF FedViews: Prospects for AI-related Activity Add to Uncertainty Around the Economic Outlook in 2026
Mark M. Spiegel, senior policy adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of February 26, 2026.
Working Papers >
The latest in economic research
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Can Models with Idiosyncratic Risk Solve the Equity Premium Puzzle? Redux
Can idiosyncratic risk explain the equity premium? We revisit this question using a novel measure of imperfect risk sharing, implied by a large class of heterogeneous-agent models, constructed using household-level panel data. We identify a group of households – with relatively high income but low net worth – whose consumption is sufficiently volatile and risky […]
Community Engagement and Analysis Publications
Community Development Articles>
Short-form insights on key community development topics, informed by research and engagement in the 12th District.
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Understanding the Evolving AI Landscape and Its Implications for Community Development
The latest Community Investments series examines the evolving landscape of AI and its implications for community development. This article summarizes the range of topics and stakeholders explored in this issue.
Community Development Research Briefs >
Research briefs feature data and commentary on community development trends and issues.
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On-the-Job Exposure to AI Among Lower-Income Workers
To better understand the potential impacts of AI on the economy, this analysis assesses workers likely to be exposed to AI on the job, paying particular attention to workers in lower-income households, what occupations and industries they work in, and how exposure varies across different parts of the country.
Community Development Working Papers >
Working papers provide in-depth analysis of emerging community development issues from practitioners and scholars.
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Housing Market Interventions and Residential Mobility in the San Francisco Bay Area
Limited evaluation research exists on which housing solutions are most effective in stabilizing communities so that those who wish to stay are able to do so in the midst of an influx of newcomers. This study seeks to fill this gap by assessing patterns of individual and household mobility related to specific housing interventions in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area. Specifically, this study examines impacts of market-rate and subsidized development, and tenant protections, including rent stabilization and just cause for evictions protections.