Recent Analysis and Research

Posted March 23, 2015
Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor

Economic Letter a Publication of Economic Research

In the six decades following World War II, bank lending measured as a ratio to GDP has quadrupled in advanced economies. To a great extent, this unprecedented expansion of credit was driven by a dramatic growth in mortgage loans. Lending backed by real estate has allowed households to leverage up and has changed the traditional business of banking in fundamental ways. This “Great Mortgaging” has had a profound influence on the dynamics of business cycles.

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Posted February 23, 2015
Andrew K. Rose and Mark M. Spiegel

Working Papers a Publication of Economic Research

We explore the relationship between inflation and the bond market. Bond holders are exposed to capital losses through inflation and represent a potential anti-inflationary force; we ask whether their influence is apparent using a simple theoretical model where bond issuance leads to political pressure on the government to choose a lower inflation rate. We then check empirical data before and after the introduction of a domestic bond market. Inflation-targeting countries with a bond market experience inflation approximately 3-4 percentage points lower than those without one.

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The New Geography of Jobs (EiP)

Posted April 30, 2014

The New Geography of Jobs

In the 1950s, the best indicator of a community's economic success was its level of physical capital. In today's world, the best indicator of a community's economic success is human capital. Professor Enrico Moretti discusses the factors shaping community development and the pivotal role of college-educated workers.

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