Recent Analysis and Research

Posted October 20, 2014
John C. Williams

Economic Letter a Publication of Economic Research

The Federal Reserve is on track to end asset purchases in the near future and has laid the groundwork for its plan to eventually normalize monetary policy by raising short-term interest rates. The process of policy normalization is unlikely to start soon, however, and its exact timing will depend on further improvements in unemployment, wages, and inflation. The following is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to business and community leaders in Las Vegas, Nevada, on October 9, 2014.

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Posted September 22, 2014
Òscar Jordá, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor

Working Papers a Publication of Economic Research

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of mortgage lending to households. Household debt to asset ratios have risen substantially in many countries. Financial stability risks have been increasingly linked to real estate lending booms which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in the modern macroeconomy.

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The New Geography of Jobs (EiP)

Posted April 30, 2014

The New Geography of Jobs

In the 1950s, the best indicator of a community's economic success was its level of physical capital. In today's world, the best indicator of a community's economic success is human capital. Professor Enrico Moretti discusses the factors shaping community development and the pivotal role of college-educated workers.

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