Recent Analysis and Research

Posted September 22, 2014
Jeffrey Clemens, Joshua D. Gottlieb, and Adam Hale Shapiro

Economic Letter a Publication of Economic Research

Because the health sector makes up a large share of the U.S. economy, widespread price changes for medical services can impact overall inflation significantly. Cuts to public health-care spending spill over directly and indirectly to private spending. A recent estimate suggests the full effect of the Medicare payment cuts from the 2011 Budget Control Act resulted in a decline of 0.24 percentage point in the overall personal consumption expenditures price index. This is over twice the expected drop if private-sector spillovers are not included.

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Posted September 22, 2014
Òscar Jordá, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor

Working Papers a Publication of Economic Research

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of mortgage lending to households. Household debt to asset ratios have risen substantially in many countries. Financial stability risks have been increasingly linked to real estate lending booms which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in the modern macroeconomy.

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The New Geography of Jobs (EiP)

Posted April 30, 2014

The New Geography of Jobs

In the 1950s, the best indicator of a community's economic success was its level of physical capital. In today's world, the best indicator of a community's economic success is human capital. Professor Enrico Moretti discusses the factors shaping community development and the pivotal role of college-educated workers.

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