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Research Spotlight

Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference: Call for Papers

Posted October 3, 2019

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco will host its annual conference on macroeconomics and monetary policy on Friday, March 27, 2020.

We invite researchers to submit working papers by Friday, October 18. We prefer topics in the area of macroeconomics broadly defined that are relevant for monetary policy, which may involve related fields such as finance, labor economics, international economics, applied microeconomics, and public finance.

Read our Call for Papers for more information

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Recent Publications

FedViews

Posted September 20, 2019

Robert G. Valletta, group vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated his views on the current economy and the outlook as of September 12, 2019.

View past FedViews

Economic Letter

Posted October 7, 2019
John Fernald, Neil Gerstein, and Mark Spiegel

China’s official GDP shows that its pace of economic growth has slowed gradually since 2010 but remains remarkably high, around 6%. A new index, the China Cyclical Activity Tracker, or China CAT, provides an alternative way to measure fluctuations in Chinese economic activity using a weighted average of several non-GDP indicators. The index suggests that economic activity has slowed noticeably since 2017 to a pace slightly below trend. GDP growth statistics appear excessively smooth over recent years, but, as of mid-2019, are in line with the China CAT.

View more FRBSF Economic Letters

Working Paper

Posted October 3, 2019
Han Hong, Huiyu Li, and Jessie Li

We derive the asymptotic distribution of the parameters of the Berry et al. (1995, BLP) model in a many markets setting which takes into account simulation noise under the assumption of overlapping simulation draws. We show that, as long as the number of simulation draws R and the number of markets T approach infinity, our estimator is √m = √min(R,T) consistent and asymptotically normal. We do not impose any relationship between the rates at which R and T go to infinity, thus allowing for the case of R < < T. We provide a consistent estimate of the asymptotic variance which can be used to form asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Instead of directly minimizing the BLP GMM objective function, we propose using Hamiltonian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to implement a Laplace-type estimator which is asymptotically equivalent to the GMM estimator.

View More Working Papers

Indicators and Data

Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation

Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation divides components of core personal consumption expenditures according to whether they move in tandem with economic cycles or are independent of the state of the overall economy.

PCE Inflation Dispersion

PCE Inflation Dispersion statistics present a more detailed summary of the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCEPI), a measure of U.S. inflation. Included are measures of the distribution of price changes across categories and diffusion indices.

Tech Pulse

The Tech Pulse Index is an index of coincident indicators of activity in the U.S. information technology sector. It can be interpreted as a summary statistic that tracks the health of the tech sector in a timely manner.

Total Factor Productivity

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) presents a real-time, quarterly data series for the U.S. business sector, adjusted for variations in factor utilization—labor effort and capital’s workweek.

Treasury Yield Premiums

The Treasury yield premium model decomposes nominal bond yields of various maturities into three components: expectations of the average future short-term interest rate, a term premium, and a model residual.

Wage Rigidity Meter

The Wage Rigidity Meter offers a closer examination of the annual wage changes of U.S. workers that have not changed jobs over the year.

Weather-Adjusted Employment Change

This page provides estimates of weather-adjusted employment change in the United States for the past six months. The estimates are aggregated from county-level estimates of weather’s employment effects, which were derived from a county-level analysis of the short-run effects of unusual weather on employment growth.

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The Center for Pacific Basin Studies promotes cooperation among central banks in the Pacific Basin and provides insight into and analysis of economic policy issues affecting the region.

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Dissertation Fellowship

The Thomas J. Sargent Dissertation Fellowship offers individuals an opportunity to interact with economists and visiting scholars, make progress in writing their dissertation, and increase their exposure to scholarly research.

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