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Glenn Rudebusch, executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated his views on the current economy and the outlook as of April 14, 2016.
Banks can use loan data to precisely estimate individual default risk. However, scenarios used for stress tests—as well as the reports banks must provide—reflect a bank’s entire portfolio. So, is it better to aggregate data before or after applying a statistical model? Research suggests a middle-of-the-road approach that applies models to data aggregated at an intermediate level can produce accurate and stable results.
Since the Great Recession, productivity growth slowed around the world. We highlight that this pace slowed before the recession for the U.S. and Europe. This suggests potential importance of other factors, such as the relative slowing during and before the recession from previous fast-paced frontiers in IT. We provide VAR and panel-data evidence that changes in real interest rates influenced productivity dynamics in this period. In particular, the sharp decline in real interest rates in Italy and Spain seemed to trigger unfavorable reallocations large enough to reduce total factor productivity.
The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCEPI) is one measure of U.S. inflation. The PCEPI measures the percentage change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers throughout the economy.
The Tech Pulse Index is an index of coincident indicators of activity in the U.S. information technology sector. It can be interpreted as a summary statistic that tracks the health of the tech sector in a timely manner.
This site presents a real-time, quarterly series on total factor productivity (TFP) for the U.S. business sector, adjusted for variations in factor utilization - labor effort and capital's workweek.
The Wage Rigidity Meter offers a closer examination of the annual wage changes of U.S. workers that have not changed jobs over the year.