Economic Letter

Current Recession Risk According to the Yield Curve

Two common measures of the Treasury yield curve slope have diverged recently, making the resulting signals about the risk of recession unclear. Economic arguments and empirical evidence, including its more accurate predictions, favor the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury securities. Recession probabilities for the next year derived from this spread so far remain modest.

Why Climate Risk Matters to Us

Promoting a healthy, stable economy requires us to consider current and future risks. Climate change is one of those risks. We need to study and understand how a changing climate may affect the safety and soundness of our economy. In turn, we're assessing how to incorporate these findings into our core functions and mandates, focusing on research, supervision, community, and operations.

Career Opportunities

The San Francisco Fed is dedicated to building an economy that works for everyone. We thrive on reflecting the people we serve by hiring talented individuals from diverse backgrounds and creating a culture of inclusion where people are respected for what they do and for who they are.