Support­ing a Stronger Economy

Support­ing a Stronger Economy

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco serves the nine western states, two territories, and commonwealth in the Federal Reserve’s Twelfth District. The Bank’s congressionally mandated mission is to promote maximum employment and stable prices, and support the nation’s financial and payment systems.

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Economic Research

Read the SF Fed’s most-viewed economic research publications to learn more about topics like inflation, employment, artificial intelligence, and other forces shaping the economy.

AI investment is surging and reshaping prices. In the latest SF FedViews, EVP and Director of Research Sylvain Leduc examines how the AI buildout, energy prices, and tariffs are shaping the outlook for growth, inflation, and interest rates.

Stablecoin issuers have rapidly increased Treasury holdings, surpassing Japan’s growth in short-term Treasuries since 2023 and offsetting some of China’s decline. If current trends continue, their holdings could reach $400B by 2030, becoming a notable, though still limited, source of Treasury demand.

Banks adopting AI more intensively tend to see higher profitability, greater lending risk, and reduced small business lending. The findings suggest AI improves analysis of hard data like credit scores and financial statements but may discourage relationship-based lending that relies on softer information.

A new Economic Letter examines the effects of past oil supply shocks in Canada, one of the world’s largest oil exporters, and the euro area, a large net oil importer, finding that both experienced rising inflation and declining industrial production.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly engages with people and businesses in the Twelfth District and across the U.S. to better understand the economy and explain her thinking on monetary policy and the economic outlook.

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