Growth forecasts by FOMC meeting participants were persistently too optimistic for 2008 through 2016. The typical forecast started out high but was revised down over time. In contrast, forecasts for 2017 through 2019 started low but were revised up over time, with cumulative revisions much smaller on average. Observations suggest participants have adjusted their methodology to eliminate optimistic bias.
Unsure of which career path he wanted to follow and looking for a job, Kiyo Dickerson landed in the mail room at the San Francisco Fed's Seattle branch in the early 1980s. Now, over 30 years later, he's a facilities engineer who helps his team keep operations running smoothly.
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