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Center for Monetary Research | Publications

Research and Publications

Selected SF Fed research on monetary economics and macro-finance topics, organized by three content categories: (1) Working Papers; (2) FRBSF Economic Letters; and (3) articles published in external academic journals.

Working Papers >

Academic research by SF Fed economists and affiliates intended for publication in scholarly journals. This section contains selected working papers on monetary economics and macro-finance topics that have been authored or co-authored by SF Fed economists.

  • A Tale of Two Tightenings

    A Tale of Two Tightenings

    Simon H. Kwan, Ville Voutilainen

    Both the magnitude and the pace of monetary policy tightening in the euro area during 2022-23 were historically large and fast. Yet, the real economy proved to be resilient. In this paper, we analyze the pass through of the ECB’s changes in the policy rate to mortgage rates in Finland during the post-pandemic period of 2022-23, when the policy liftoff began at the negative interest rate territory, using the normal tightening cycle in 2006-08 as control. We use monthly data and three different empirical methodologies: event studies, high-frequency identification, and exposure-measure regressions. Our evidence suggests that the post-pandemic monetary policy transmission was significantly less effective than during the control period, implying that for the same amount of tightening in financial conditions, a bigger increase in the policy rate is needed. The loss in monetary transmission during the negative interest rate policy is also playing out when monetary policy changes course. Thus, while monetary policy remains effective in the negative interest rate territory, it creates headwind for policy normalization down the road.

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View all Center for Monetary Research Working Papers

FRBSF Economic Letter >

Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve. This section contains selected Economic Letters on monetary economics and macro-finance topics.

  • The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium-Term Risk

    The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium-Term Risk

    Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates. The information from this statistical distribution can help measure the perceived risk of interest rates returning to the zero lower bound in the future. The risk varies over time, driven mainly by the expected level of interest rates. At longer forecast horizons, a higher risk of returning to the lower bound primarily reflects a higher amount of uncertainty. Currently, the perceived risk appears slim over the next few years but is significant at longer horizons.

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View all Center for Monetary Research Economic Letters

Recent Journal Articles >

This section contains selected journal articles on monetary economics and macro-finance topics that have been authored or co-authored by SF Fed economists.

Phillips Meets Beveridge
Journal of Monetary Economics 148 (Supplement), November 2024 | Regis Barnichon and Adam Hale Shapiro

Replicating Business Cycles and Asset Returns with Sentiment and Low Risk Aversion
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 167, October 2024 | Kevin Lansing

The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
The Review of Economics and Statistics, October 2024 | Oscar Jorda, Sanjay R. Singh, and Alan M. Taylor

Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico
Journal of International Economics 151, September 2024 | Remy Beauregard, Jens H.E. Christensen, Eric Fischer, and Simon Zhu

Monetary Policy, Markup Dispersion, and Aggregate TFP
The Review of Economics and Statistics 106(4), July 2024 | Matthias Meier and Timo Reinelt

Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 16(3), July 2024 | Pablo Cuba-Borda and Sanjay R. Singh

Perceptions About Monetary Policy
Quarterly Journal of Economics, June 2024 | Michael D. Bauer, Carolin E. Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam

Evergreening
Journal of Financial Economics 153(103778), March 2024 | Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Pascal Paul, and Juan M. Sanchez

Supply or Demand? Policymakers’ Confusion in the Presence of Hysteresis
European Economic Review 161, January 2024 | Antonio Fatas and Sanjay R. Singh

Risk Appetite and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy
Journal of Economic Perspectives 37(1), Winter 2023 | Michael D. Bauer, Ben S. Bernanke, and Eric Milstein

A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Macro Policy Evaluation
American Economic Review 113(11), November 2023, 2,809-2,845 | Regis Barnichon and Geert Mesters

Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps
Review of Economic Studies 90(6), November 2023, 2,822-2,879 | Nicolas Caramp and Sanjay R. Singh

Exchange Rate Misalignment and External Imbalances: What Is the Optimal Monetary Policy Response?
Journal of International Economics 144(103771), September 2023 | Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola, and Sylvain Leduc

A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 37, 2023 | Michael D. Bauer and Eric T. Swanson

An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”
American Economic Review 113(3), March 2023 | Michael D. Bauer and Eric T. Swanson

Communicating Monetary Policy Rules
European Economic Review 151, January 2023, 104290 | Troy Davig and Andrew Foerster

Banks, Maturity Transformation, and Monetary Policy
Journal of Financial Intermediation 53, January 2023 | Pascal Paul