The weekly Labor Market Stress Indicator (LMSI) tracks state-level labor market developments in real time to better understand labor market conditions as they evolve.
The measure is built from weekly state unemployment claims (initial and continuing) and monthly state payroll employment data. Each week, we calculate how many states are seeing the claims-based unemployment rate rise faster than a threshold, which we refer to as accelerating unemployment. The result is a simple, timely gauge of how widespread labor market stress is across the country. See Garimella, Jordà, and Singh (2025a) for additional technical details on how we construct the data series.
Figure 1 displays the weekly economic indicator since 1996. As detailed in Garimella, Jordà, and Singh (2025b), the indicator provides a timely measure of the breadth of the labor market stress and tracks NBER recessions quite well. Figure 2 displays the indicator as the share of the national labor force that experiences accelerating unemployment in their state.
The downloadable Excel file also includes a monthly indicator discussed in Garimella, Jordà, and Singh (2025b).
References
Garimella, Rohit, Òscar Jordà, and Sanjay R. Singh. 2025a. “Introducing a Weekly Labor Market Stress Indicator.” SF Fed Blog, September 30.
Garimella, Rohit, Òscar Jordà, and Sanjay R. Singh. 2025b. “Tracking Labor Market Stress.” FRBSF Economic Letter 2025-19 (August 18).
Sahm, Claudia. 2019. “Direct Stimulus Payments to Individuals.” Chapter 3 in Recession Ready: Fiscal Policies to Stabilize the American Economy, eds. Heather Boushey, Ryan Nunn, and Jay Shambaugh. Washington, DC: The Hamilton Project and the Washington Center on Equitable Growth, pp. 67–92.
Download Data
Data for Labor Market Stress Indicator (Excel document, 91 kb)