Thursday, Nov 20, 2025 – Friday, Nov 21, 2025
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
San Francisco, CA
Thursday, November 20
Introductory Remarks
Speaker:
Zheng Liu, Senior Policy Advisor and Director of the Center for Pacific Basin
Studies, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Opening Keynote
Speaker:
Maurice Obstfeld, C. Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Session 1: Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects
Chair:
Zheng Liu, Senior Policy Advisor and Director of the Center for Pacific Basin
Studies, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Authors:
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Professor of Economics, University of Pennsylvania
Tomohide Mineyama, Senior Economist, International Monetary Fund
Dongho Song, Associate Professor, Johns Hopkins University
Discussants:
Dario Caldara, Assistant Director, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
General Discussion
Session 2: Heaven or Earth? The Evolving Role of Global Shocks for Domestic Monetary Policy
Chair:
Zheng Liu, Senior Policy Advisor and Director of the Center for Pacific Basin
Studies, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Authors:
Kristin Forbes, Jerome and Dorothy Lemelson Professor of Management and Global Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Jongrim Ha, Senior Economist,World Bank Group
M. Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist, World Bank Group
Discussants:
Eric Swanson, Professor, University of California, Irvine
General Discussion
Session 3: U.S. Monetary Spillovers to Emerging Markets: Both Policy Drivers and Vulnerabilities Matter
Chair:
Sanjay Singh, Research Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Authors:
Shaghil Ahmed,Deputy Director,Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Ozge Akinci, Head of International Studies, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Albert Queralto, Chief, Global Modeling Studies, International Finance, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Discussants:
Francis Warnock, James C. Wheat, Jr. Professor, Darden Business School, University of Virginia
General Discussion
Session 4: Transitory and Permanent Import Tariff Shocks in the United States: An Empirical Investigation
Chair:
Thuy-Lan Nguyen, Research Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Authors:
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Executive Director, Program for Economic Research, Columbia University
Martín Uribe, Robert A. Mundell Professor of Economics, Columbia University
Discussants:
Adrien Auclert, Associate Professor, Stanford University
General Discussion
Dinner
Introductory Remarks
Speaker:
Mauricio Ulate, Research Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Keynote Address
Speaker:
Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, Edward G. and Nancy S. Jordan Professor of
Economics, University of California, Berkeley
Friday, November 21
Session 5: The Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations?
Chair:
Sanjay Singh, Research Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Authors:
Paul Beaudry, Professor, University of British Columbia
Thomas J. Carter,Senior Policy Advisor, Bank of Canada
Amartya Lahiri, Professor, University of British Columbia
Discussants:
Martin Eichenbaum, Charles Moskos Professor, Northwestern University
General Discussion
Session 6: Who Benefits from Financial Development? The Interaction of Finance and Trade
Chair:
Sanjay Singh, Research Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Authors:
Mehran Ebrahimian, Assistant Professor, Stockholm School of Economics
Hamid Firooz, Assistant Professor, North Carolina State University
Discussants:
Chenzi Xu, Assistant Professor, University of California, Berkeley
General Discussion
Session 7: Decoding China’s Industrial Policies
Chair:
Thuy-Lan Nguyen, Research Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Authors:
Hanming Fang, Norman C. Grosman Professor, University of Pennsylvania
Ming Li, Assistant Professor, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
Guangli Lu, Assistant Professor, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
Discussants:
Loren Brandt, Noranda Chair Professor of International Trade and Economics, University of Toronto
General Discussion
Organizing Committee:
Zheng Liu, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Thuy-Lan Nguyen, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Sanjay Singh, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco