Recent Journal Articles - San Francisco Fed

2026

The Crowding-In Effects of Local Government Debt in China

Journal of Monetary Economics 159, March 2026 | Liu

The Winners and Losers of Climate Policies: A Sufficient Statistics Approach

The Economic Journal, 2026 | Rosenthal-Kay and Bourany

Bank Risk-Taking, Credit Allocation, and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from China

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 18, January 2026, 384-415 | X. Li, Liu, Peng and Xu

The Canary in the Coal Decline: Appalachian Household Finance and the Transition from Fossil Fuels

Journal of Financial Economics 175(104167), January 2026 | Roth Tran, Blonz and Troland

The Rise of AI Pricing: Trends, Driving Forces, and Implications for Firm Performance

Journal of Monetary Economics 157, January 2026 | Liu

2025

The Credit Line Channel

Journal of Finance 80(6), December 2025, 3,137-3,183 | Paul, Greenwald and Krainer

Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies

Labour Economics 97(102765), December 2025 | Kudlyak, Tasci and Tuzemen

Motherhood Penalty in Consumption

Economics Letters 257(112650), December 2025 | Calvo, Lindenlaub and Uniat

The Effect of Aging on Entrepreneurship and Aggregate Productivity

Journal of the Economics of Ageing 32(100605), December 2025 | Hoshi, Kodama and Li

The Active Role of the Natural Rate of Unemployment

Research in Economics 79(4), December 2025 | Hall and Kudlyak

The Local Economic Impact of Natural Disasters

Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 12(6), November 2025 | Roth Tran and Wilson

How Local Is Local Development? Evidence from Casinos

Regional Science and Urban Economics 115(104139), November 2025 | Rosenthal-Kay and Anisfeld

The Transmission of Negative Nominal Interest Rates in Finland

Journal of the European Economic Association 23(5), October 2025, 1,809-1,837 | Kwan, Ulate and Voutilainen

Turbulent Business Cycles

Journal of Monetary Economics 155, October 2025 | Dong, Liu and Wang

Global Monetary Policy Spillovers: Conference Summary

Forthcoming in Journal of International Money and Finance | Bussiere, Horny and Spiegel

Demographics and Real Interest Rates Across Countries and Over Time

Journal of International Economics 157(104127), 2025 | Nechio, Carvalho, Ferrero and Mazin

The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act

Forthcoming in Advances in Econometrics | Bauer, Offner and Rudebusch

Trade War and the Dollar Anchor

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Fall, September 2025 | Mertens, Hassan, Wang and Zhang

Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Slope of the Phillips Curve

European Economic Review 178(105073), September 2025 | Jørgensen and Lansing

Quantitative Easing and the Supply of Safe Assets: Evidence from International Bond Safety Premia

Journal of International Economics 157, September 2025 | Christensen, Mirkov and Zhang

Micro MPCs and Macro Counterfactuals: The Case of the 2008 Rebates

Quarterly Journal of Economics 140(3), August 2025, 2,001-2,052 | Orchard, Ramey and Wieland

Green Stocks and Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Europe

European Economic Review 177, August 2025 | Bauer, Offner and Rudebusch

In Search of Dominant Drivers of the Real Exchange Rate

Review of Economics and Statistics 107(4), July 2025, 1,059-1,073 | Nguyen, Miyamoto and Oh

Reshoring, Automation, and Labor Markets Under Trade Uncertainty

Journal of International Economics 156(104091), July 2025 | Firooz, Leduc and Liu

A Local Projections Approach to Difference-in-Differences

Forthcoming in Journal of Applied Econometrics | Dube, Girardi, Jorda and Taylor

Unemployment Insurance Generosity and Job Acceptance: Effects of the 2020 CARES Act

Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics 3(2), June 2025 | Petrosky-Nadeau and Valletta

Regional Dissent: Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?

American Economic Review: Insights 7(2), June 2025, 268-284 | Bobrov, Kamdar and Ulate

Decomposing the Monetary Policy Multiplier

Journal of Monetary Economics 152(1037830, June 2025 | Alessandri, Jorda and Venditti

Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Bonds, and Inflation

Journal of Financial Economics 172(104130), June 2025 | Bok, Mertens and Williams

UI Generosity and Job Acceptance: Effects of the 2020 CARES Act

JPE Macro 3(2), June 2025 | Petrosky-Nadeau and Valletta

Using Macro Counterfactuals to Assess Plausibility: An Illustration using the 2001 Rebate MPCs

Forthcoming in The Economic Journal | Orchard, Ramey and Wieland

What and How the Public Knows about the Fed

The Journal of Economic Education 56(3), May 2025, 248-262 | Duzhak, Lopus and Hoff

Automation and the Rise of Superstar Firms

Journal of Monetary Economics 151, April 2025 | Firooz, Liu and Wang

Monetary Tightening and Financial Stress during Supply– versus Demand–driven Inflation

International Journal of Central Banking 21, April 2025, 147-220 | Boissay, Collard, Manea and Shapiro

Accounting for Changes in Long-Term Interest Rates: Evidence from Canada

Journal of Financial Econometrics 23(2), 2025 | Christensen, Rudebusch and Shultz

Entry Costs Rise with Growth

Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics 3(1), March 2025 | Klenow and Li

From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC's New Employment Objective

Forthcoming in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics | Bundick and Petrosky-Nadeau

Local Projections

Journal of Economic Literature 63(1), March 2025, 59-110 | Jorda and Taylor

Inference for Local Projections

Forthcoming in The Econometrics Journal | Inoue, Jorda and Kuersteiner

Fiscal Policy Design and Inflation: The COVID-19 Pandemic Experience

Journal of International Money and Finance 150(103210), 2025 | Hale, Leer and Nechio

Trade with Nominal Rigidities

Forthcoming in Journal of Political Economy | Rodriguez-Clare, Ulate and Vasquez

The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?

Review of Income and Wealth 71(1), February 2025 | Fernald, Inklaar and Ruzic

A Post-Pandemic New Normal for Interest Rates in Emerging Bond Markets? Evidence from Chile

Journal of International Money and Finance 150(103234), February 2025 | Ceballos, Christensen and Romero

Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach

Quantitative Economics 16(1), January 2025, 1-47 | Benigno, Foerster, Otrok and Rebucci

Subjective Housing Price Expectations, Falling Natural Rates, and the Optimal Inflation Target

Journal of Monetary Economics 149, January 2025 | Adam, Pfaeuti and Reinelt

Labor Market Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Journal of Monetary Economics 149, January 2025, 1-14 | Ulate, Vasquez and Zarate

Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics

Journal of Finance 80(2), January 2025, 783-832 | Roth Tran, Kruttli and Watugala

A Simple Measure of Anchoring for Short-Run Expected Inflation in FIRE Models

Economics Letters 246, 2025, Article 112050 | Jorgensen and Lansing

2024

Competitive Effects of IPOs: Evidence from Chinese Listing Suspensions

Journal of Money Credit and Banking 56(8), December 2024, 2,137-2,169 | Packer and Spiegel

Unemployment and Inflation Dynamics in the Monetary Policy Armamentarium

Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference, Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track, December 2024 | Kudlyak and Hall

Phillips Meets Beveridge

Journal of Monetary Economics 148 Supplement (103660), November 2024 | Barnichon and Shapiro

Understanding the Inequality and Welfare Impacts of Carbon Tax Policies

Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 11(S1), November 2024 | Fried, Novan and Peterman

Perceptions about Monetary Policy

Quarterly Journal of Economics 139(4), November 2024, 2,227-2,278 | Bauer, Pflueger and Sunderam

Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 16(4), October 2024, 311-349 | Leduc and Liu

Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework

Review of Economic Studies 91(5), October 2024, 3,013-3,046 | L’Huillier, Singh and Yoo

Optimally Imprecise Memory and Biased Forecasts

American Economic Review 114(10), October 2024, 3,075–3,118 | da Silveira, Sung and Woodford

Replicating Business Cycles and Asset Returns with Sentiment and Low Risk Aversion

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 167, 2024, Article 104921 | Lansing

Climate Policy Curves Highlight Key Mitigation Choices

Climate Policy 25(3), 2024 | Hänsel, Bauer, Drupp, Wagner and Rudebusch

Pandemic Layoffs and the Role of Stay-at-Home Orders

Economics Letters 242(111894), September 2024 | Kudlyak and Wolcott

Understanding Climate Damages: Consumption versus Investment

European Economic Review 167(104799), August 2024 | Casey, Fried and Gibson

Changing Global Input-Output Linkages and Demand Spillovers

IMF Economic Review 71, August 2024, 1,125-1,151 | Nguyen and Miyamoto

World Productivity: 1996-2014

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 16(3) , July 2024, 160-189 | Esfahani, Fernald and Hobijn

Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 16(3), July 2024, 389-416 | Cuba-Borda and Singh

Monetary Policy, Markup Dispersion, and Aggregate TFP

Review of Economics and Statistics 106(4), July 2024, 1,012-1,027 | Reinelt and Meier

Climate Change, The Food Problem, and the Challenge of Adaptation through Sectoral Reallocation

Forthcoming in Journal of Political Economy | Nath

Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico

Journal of International Economics 151, 2024, 103961 | Beauregard, Christensen, Fischer and Zhu

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021

PLOS Computational Biology 20(5), 2024 | Wilson and Lopez et al.

Is the World Running Out of Fresh Water?

AEA Papers and Proceedings 114(May), May 2024, 31-35 | Carleton, Crews and Nath

The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy

Forthcoming in Review of Economics and Statistics | Jorda, Singh and Taylor

Decomposing Supply and Demand Driven Inflation

Forthcoming in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking | Shapiro

The International Transmission of Shocks through the Lens of Foreign Banks in Hong Kong

Journal of International Money and Finance 142, April 2024, 1-14 | Kwan, Ho, Hui and Wong

How Cyclical Is the User Cost of Labor?

Journal of Economic Perspectives 38(2), Spring 2024, 159-180 | Kudlyak

Comment on "The Emergence of a Uniform Business Cycle in the United States: Evidence from New Claims-Based Unemployment Data” by Andrew Fieldhouse, Sean Howard, Christoffer Koch, and David Munro

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2024, 326-337 | Kudlyak

Evergreening

Journal of Financial Economics 153(103778), March 2024 | Faria-e-Castro, Paul and Sanchez

A Denial a Day Keeps the Doctor Away

Quarterly Journal of Economics 139, February 2024, 187-233 | Dunn, Gottlieb, Shapiro, Sonnenstuhl and Tebaldi

Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs

Journal of Finance 79(1), February 2024, 173-217 | Bauer and Chernov

International Input-Output Linkages and Changing Business Cycle Volatility

Journal of International Economics 147(103869), January 2024 | Nguyen and Miyamoto

Supply or Demand? Policymakers’ Confusion in the Presence of Hysteresis

European Economic Review 161, January 2024 | Fatas and Singh

Currency Areas, Labor Markets, and Regional Cyclical Sensitivity

IMF Economic Review 72, January 2024, 152-195 | Russ, Shambaugh and Singh

Challenges to Disinflation: The Brazilian Experience

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, January 2024, 217-241 | Nechio and Carvalho

2023

International Evidence on Extending Sovereign Debt Maturities

Journal of International Money and Finance 141, 2023, 103009 | Christensen, Lopez and Mussche

Sellin' in the Rain: Weather, Climate, and Retail Sales

Management Science 69(12), December 2023, 7423-7447 | Roth Tran

A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Macro Policy Evaluation

American Economic Review 113(11), November 2023, 2,809-2,845 | Barnichon and Mesters

A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents

Review of Economic Studies 90(6), November 2023, 2,675-2,702 | Aghion, Bergeaud, Boppart, Klenow and Li

Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps

Review of Economic Studies 90(6) , November 2023, 2,822-2,879 | Caramp and Singh

Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered

IMF Economic Review, November 2023 | Jorda, Schularick and Taylor

Top Incomes, Rising Inequality and Welfare

Economic Journal Virtual Issues: Economics of Income and Wealth Distribution Collection, 2023 | Lansing and Markiewicz

Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises

Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 55(7), October 2023, 1,641-1,665 | Paul

Electricity and Firm Productivity: A General-Equilibrium Approach

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 15(4), October 2023, 67-103 | Fried and Lagakos

The Quality-Adjusted Cyclical Price of Labor

Journal of Labor Economics 41(S1), October 2023, S13-S59 | Bils, Kudlyak and Lins

The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market

The Review of Economics and Statistics 105(5), September 2023, 1,255-1,270 | Rudebusch and Bauer

Selection into Identification in Fixed Effects Models with Application to Head Start

Journal of Human Resources 58(5), September 2023, 1,523-1,566 | Miller, Shenhav and Grosz

Exchange Rate Misalignment and External Imbalances: What Is the Optimal Monetary Policy Response?

Journal of International Economics 144(103771), September 2023 | Corsetti, Dedola and Leduc

Local Projections for Applied Economics

Annual Review of Economics 15, September 2023, 607-631 | Jorda

Job Creation Tax Credits, Fiscal Foresight, And Job Growth: Evidence From U.S. States

National Tax Journal, 2023 | Chirinko and Wilson

Tariffs and the Macroeconomy

Oxford Research Encyclopedia in Economics and Finance, 2023 | Meng, Russ and Singh

Inflation and Wage Growth since the Pandemic

European Economic Review 156(104474), July 2023 | Jorda and Nechio

Bringing “Behavioral” Fully into Behavioral Public Administration

Journal of Behavioral Public Administration 6(1), 2023, 1-8 | Banko-Ferran, Bengali and Bhanot

Fiscal Capacity and Commercial Bank lending Under COVID-19

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 68, June 2023 | Aizenman, Jinjarek and Spiegel

Projecting the Impacts of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics

IMF Economic Review Online first article, June 2023 | Casey, Fried and Goode

A Global View of Creative Destruction

Journal of Political Economy: Macroeconomics 1(2), June 2023, 243-275 | Hsieh, Klenow and Nath

Capital Flows and Income Inequality

Journal of International Economics 144 (103776), 2023 | Liu, Spiegel and Zhang

Measuring Work from Home in the Cross Section

AEA Papers and Proceedings 113, May 2023, 614-618 | Kmetz, Mondragon and Wieland

Taxing Billionaires: Estate Taxes and the Geographical Location of the Ultra-Wealthy

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2023 | Wilson and Moretti

Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier

Review of Economic Studies 90(5), April 2023, 2674-2714 | Dupor, Karabarbounis, Kudlyak and Mehkari

Learning in the Oil Futures Markets: Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications

Review of Economics and Statistics 105(2), March 2023, 392-407 | Leduc, Moran and Vigfusson

Central Bank Credibility During COVID-19: Evidence from Japan

Journal of International Money and Finance 131, March 2023 | Christensen and Spiegel

An Alternative Explanation for the "Fed Information Effect"

American Economic Review 113(3), March 2023, 664-700 | Bauer and Swanson

A Risk-Based Theory of Exchange Rate Stabilization

Review of Economic Studies 90(2), March 2023, 879–911 | Hassan, Mertens and Zhang

Efficiency versus Equity in the Provision of In-Kind Benefits: Evidence from Cost Containment in the California WIC Program

Journal of Human Resources 58(2), March 2023, 363-392 | Uniat, Meckel and Rossin-Slater

A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification

NBER Macroeconomic Annual 2022 37(1), 2023, 87-155 | Bauer and Swanson

Productivity Slowdown: Reducing the Measure of Our Ignorance

In Ch. 10 in The Economics of Creative Destruction: New Research on Themes from Aghion and Howitt, ed. by Ufuk Akcigit and John Van Reenen | Harvard University Press , 2023 | Li and Boppart

Communicating Monetary Policy Rules

European Economic Review 151, January 2023, 104290 | Davig and Foerster

Banks, Maturity Transformation, and Monetary Policy

Journal of Financial Intermediation 53, January 2023 | Paul

Small Business Lending under the PPP and PPPLF Programs

Journal of Financial Intermediation 53(101017), January 2023 | Lopez and Spiegel

2022

Risk Appetite and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy

Journal of Economic Perspectives 37(1), Winter 2023, 77-100 | Bauer, Bernanke and Milstein

Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends

Journal of Political Economy 130(12), 2022, 3025-3342 | Foerster, Hornstein, Sarte and Watson

Monetary Reforms and Inflation Expectations in Japan: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds

Journal of Econometrics 231(2), December 2022, 410-431 | Christensen and Spiegel

Where Is the Carbon Premium? Global Performance of Green and Brown Stocks

Journal of Climate Finance 1, December 2022 | Bauer, Huber, Rudebusch and Wilms

Learning about Regime Change

International Economic Review 63(4), 2022, 1829-1859 | Foerster and Matthes

Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement

Management Science 68(11), 2022, 8,286-8,300 | Christensen, Lopez and Mussche

Immigration and Spatial Equilibrium: The Role of Expenditures in the Country of Origin

American Economic Review 112(11), November 2022, 3,763-3,802 | Albert and Monras

Seawalls and Stilts: A Quantitative Macro Study of Climate Adaptation

Review of Economic Studies 89(6), November 2022, 3,303-3,344 | Fried

Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits

Quarterly Journal of Economics 137(4), November 2022, 2,037-2,105 | Carleton, Jina, Delgado, Greenstone, Houser, Hsiang, Hultgren, Kopp, McCusker, Nath, Rising, Rode, Seo, Viaene, Yuan, Zhang and Tianbo

Taking the Fed at Its Word: A New Approach to Estimating Central Bank Objectives Using Text Analysis

Review of Economic Studies 89(5), October 2022, 2,768-2,805 | Shapiro and Wilson

Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy

Review of Financial Studies 35(10), October 2022, 4,561-4,586 | Kornejew, Jorda, Schularick and Taylor

The Inexorable Recoveries of Unemployment

Journal of Monetary Economics 131, October 2022, 15-25 | Kudlyak and Hall

Teachers’ Knowledge and Attitudes about the Fed

Journal of Economics and Finance Education 21(2), Fall 2022, 1-11 | Duzhak, Hoff and Lopus

Assessing Evidence for Inattention to the Costs of Homeownership

Journal of Housing Economics 58(part B), 2022 | Bengali

A Portfolio Model of Quantitative Easing

Quarterly Journal of Finance 12(4), 2022, 2250011-1-2250011-39 | Christensen and Krogstrup

The Unemployed with Jobs and without Jobs

Labour Economics 79, September 2022 | Hall and Kudlyak

Climate Policy Transition Risk and the Macroeconomy

European Economic Review 147(104174), August 2022 | Fried, Novan and Peterman

The Production Approach to Markup Estimation Often Measures Input Distortions

Economics Letters 217, August 2022 | Hashemi, Kirov and Traina

The Humanitarian Cost of War on Ukraine and the Path for Rebuilding

CEPR Policy Insight Report 117, 2022, 1-12 | Gorodnichenko, Kudlyak and Şahin

The Impact of Reserves Practices on Bank Opacity

Journal of Financial Management, Markets, and Institutions 10(1), 2022, 1-26 | Kwan and Iannotta

A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks

Journal of Economic Theory 203 (105484), 2022 | Dong, Liu, Wang and Zha

Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty

The Economic Journal 132(644), May 2022, 1290–1308 | Bauer, Lakdawala and Mueller

Are the Effects of Financial Market Disruptions Big or Small?

Review of Economics and Statistics 104(3), May 2022, 557-570 | Barnichon, Matthes and Ziegenbein

Examining the Sources of Excess Return Predictability: Stochastic Volatility or Market Inefficiency?

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 197, 2022, 50-72 | Lansing, LeRoy and Ma

Monetary Policy Spillovers Under COVID-19: Evidence from Lending by U.S. Foreign Bank Subsidiaries

Journal of International Money and Finance 122, April 2022, 102550 | Spiegel

Search with Wage Posting under Sticky Prices

Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 54(2-3), 2022, 599-626 | Foerster and Mustre-del-Rio

Forward Guidance and Durable Goods Demand

American Economic Review: Insights 4(1), March 2022, 106-122 | McKay and Wieland

Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years? 2020-20 | With Hall | June 2021

In NBER Macroeconomic Annual 36 | University of Chicago Press for NBER, 2022 | Hall and Kudlyak

Bank Capital before and after Financial Crises

In Ch. 5 in Leveraged: The New Economics of Debt and Financial Fragility, ed. by Moritz Schularick | Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2022 | Jorda, Richter, Schularick and Taylor

The Labour Market in Ukraine: Rebuild Better

In Chapter 10 in Rebuilding Ukraine: Principles and Policies, ed. by Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, Ilona Sologoub, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro | CEPR Press, London, 2022 | Kudlyak, Boeri, Anastasia and Zholud

Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It's in the Sign

The Review of Economic Studies 89(1), January 2022, 87-117 | Barnichon, Debortoli and Matthes

Does Quantitative Easing Affect Market Liquidity?

Journal of Banking and Finance 134, January 2022 | Christensen and Gillan

Leverage and Productivity

Journal of Development Economics 154(102752), January 2022 | Li

Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics

Review of Economics and Statistics 104(1), January 2022, 166-175 | Jorda, Singh and Taylor

A Menu of Insurance Contracts for the Unemployed

The Review of Economic Studies 89(1), 2022, 118-141 | Barnichon and Zylberberg

2021

The TIPS Liquidity Premium

Review of Finance 25(6), 2021, 1639–1675 | Andreasen, Christensen and Riddell

Rural Electrification, Migration and Structural Transformation: Evidence From Ethiopia

Regional Science and Urban Economics 91(103625), November 2021 | Fried and Lagakos

Taylor Rule Estimation by OLS

Journal of Monetary Economics 124, November 2021, 140-154 | Nechio, Carvalho and Tristao

Lumpy Durable Consumption Demand and the Limited Ammunition of Monetary Policy

Econometrica 89(6), November 2021, 2,717-2,749 | McKay and Wieland

Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches

Review of Economic Dynamics 42, 2021, 333-346 | Foerster and Choi

Estimating a Social Cost of Carbon for Global Energy Consumption

Nature 598, 2021, 308-314 | Rode, Carleton, Delgado, Greenstone, Houser, Hsiang, Hultgren, Jina, Kopp, McCusker, Nath, Rising and Yuan

The Transmission of Monetary Policy under the Microscope

Journal of Political Economy 129 (10), October 2021, 2861-2904 | Holm, Paul and Tischbirek

The Economic Gains from Equity

Brookings Papers on Economic Equity, Fall 2021, 71-111 | Buckman, Choi, Daly and Seitelman

Farm Prices, Redistribution, and the Early U.S. Great Depression

Journal of Economic History 81(3), September 2021, 649-687 | Hausman, Rhode and Wieland

Women's Suffrage and Children's Education

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 13(3), August 2021, 374-405 | Kose, Kuka and Shenhav

What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices

American Economic Review 111(8), August 2021, 2473-2505 | Mertens

Bond Flows and Liquidity: Do Foreigners Matter?

Journal of International Money and Finance 117-102397, 2021, 1-20 | Christensen, Fischer and Shultz

Monetary Policy under Global Uncertainty: 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference Summary

Journal of International Money and Finance 114, June 2021, 1-2 | Liu and Spiegel

Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data (Reprint)

Journal of International Money and Finance 114(102406), June 2021 | Fernald, Hsu and Spiegel

Resolving "Too Big to Fail"

Journal of Financial Services Research 60(1), June 2021 | Cetorelli and Traina

BLP Estimation Using Laplace Transformation and Overlapping Simulation Draws

Journal of Econometrics 222(1), Part A, May 2021, 56-72 | Hong, Li and J. Li

Innovative Growth Accounting

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 35(1), May 2021, 245-295 | Klenow and Li

Using Brexit to Identify the Nature of Price Rigidities

Journal of International Economics 130(103448), May 2021 | Hobijn, Nechio and Shapiro

The Economic Status of People with Disabilities and their Families since the Great Recession

In The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 695(1), ed. by J. Romich, T. Smeeding, and M.Strain | Russell Sage Foundation , May 2021. 123-142 | Daly, Bengali, Lofton and Valletta

Lowering Standards to Wed? Spouse Quality, Marriage, and Labor Market Responses to the Gender Wage Gap

The Review of Economics and Statistics 103(2), May 2021, 265-279 | Shenhav

Interest-Rate Liberalization and Capital Misallocations

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 13(2), April 2021, 373-419 | Liu, Wang and Xu

Medicaid Expansion and the Unemployed

Journal of Labor Economics Vol. 39, No. S2, April 2021, S575-617 | Valletta, Buchmueller and Levy

Local Adjustment to Immigrant-Driven Labor Supply Shocks

Journal of Human Capital 15(1), Spring 2021, 204-235 | Monras

Chair the Fed: Insights from Game Usage Data

Journal of Economic Education 52(2), 2021, 89-101 | Duzhak, Hoff and Lopus

Alternative Models of Interest Rate Pass-Through in Normal and Negative Territory

International Journal of Central Banking 17(1), March 2021, 3-34 | Ulate

Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data

Journal of International Money and Finance 110(102262), February 2021 | Fernald, Hsu and Spiegel

Abenomics, Monetary Policy, and Consumption

In Chapter 6, Part III of The Political Economy of the Abe Government and Abenomic Reforms, ed. by T. Hoshi and P. Lipscy | Cambridge University Press, February 2021. 139-169 | Hausman, Unayama and Wieland

De-leveraging or De-risking? How Banks Cope with Loss

Review of Economic Dynamics 39, 2021, 100-127 | Bidder, Krainer and Shapiro

Endogenous Forecast Switching Near the Zero Lower Bound

Journal of Monetary Economics 117, 2021, 153-169 | Lansing

Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound: The Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates

American Economic Review 111, January 2021, 1-40 | Ulate

Unemployment Crises

Journal of Monetary Economics 117, January 2021, 335-353 | Petrosky-Nadeau and Zhang

Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China

Journal of Monetary Economics 117, January 2021, 1041-1061 | Liu, Spiegel and Zhang

Tra i Leoni: Revealing the Preferences Behind a Superstition

Journal of Economic Psychology Volume 82, January 2021, Article 102324 | Invernizzi, Miller, Coen, Dufwenberg and Oliveira

Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crises

Review of Economic Studies 88(1), January 2021, 260-286 | Jorda, Richter, Schularick and Taylor

The Phillips Multiplier

Journal of Monetary Economics 117, January 2021, 689-705 | Barnichon and Mesters

Output Hysteresis and Optimal Monetary Policy

Journal of Monetary Economics 117, January 2021, 871-886 | Singh and Garga

2020

Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections

Forthcoming in Journal of Econometrics | Diebold and Rudebusch

The Expectational Effects of News in Business Cycles: Evidence from Forecast Data

Journal of Monetary Economics 116, December 2020, 184-200 | Nguyen and Miyamoto

Financial Market Development, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Brazil

In BIS Papers: Financial Market Development, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Emerging Market Economies 113 | Bank for International Settlements, December 2020. 55-65 | Nechio and Barroso

Measuring News Sentiment

Journal of Econometrics, 2020 | Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson

Capital Regulations, Bank Risk-Taking, and Monetary Policy in China

VoxChina, 2020 | Liu, X. Li, Peng and Xu

The Effects of the Chair the Fed Simulation on High School Students’ Knowledge

The American Economist 66(4), 2020 | Duzhak, Hoff and Lopus

Identifying Modern Macro Equations with Old Shocks

The Quarterly Journal of Economics 135 (4), November 2020 | Barnichon and Mesters

The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices

Review of Economics and Statistics 102(4), October 2020, 690-704 | Paul

No Job, No Money, No Refi: Frictions to Refinancing in a Recession

Journal of Finance 75(5), October 2020, 2327-2376 | Mondragon and DeFusco

Local Exposure to School Shootings and Youth Antidepressant Use

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020 | Uniat, Rossin-Slater, Schnell and Schwandt

Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future

International Productivity Monitor 38, September 2020, 104-135 | Fernald and Inklaar

Replicating and Projecting the Path of COVID-19 with a Model-Implied Reproduction Number

Infectious Disease Modelling 5, 2020, 635-651 | Buckman, Glick, Lansing, Petrosky-Nadeau and Seitelman

Immigration and Wage Dynamics: Evidence from the Mexican Peso Crisis

Journal of Political Economy 128(8), August 2020, 3,017-3,089 | Monras

Is There an On-the-Run Premium in TIPS?

Quarterly Journal of Finance 10(2), 2020 | Christensen, Lopez and Shultz

What Do Recoveries from Past US Recessions Teach Us about the Recovery from the Pandemic Recession?

VoxEU, 2020 | Hall and Kudlyak

Robotic Labour: The Automation Channel of Pandemic-Induced Uncertainty

VoxEU, 2020 | Leduc and Liu

The Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments

Journal of Monetary Economics 112, June 2020, 22-40 | Jorda, Schularick and Taylor

Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles

Journal of Political Economy 128(6), June 2020, 2,245-2,287 | Chodorow-Reich and Wieland

Interest Rates Under Falling Stars

American Economic Review 110(5), May 2020, 1316-1354 | Bauer and Rudebusch

Why Have Negative Nominal Interest Rates Had Such a Small Effect on Bank Performance? Cross Country Evidence

European Economic Review 124, May 2020 | Spiegel, Lopez and Rose

Administration above Administrators: The Changing Technology of Health Care Management

AEA Papers and Proceedings 110 , May 2020, 274-78 | Shapiro

Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates

In Chapter 3 in Strategies for Monetary Policy, ed. by John Cochrane and John Taylor | Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution, May 2020. 103-172 | Mertens and Williams

R* and the Global Economy

Journal of International Money and Finance 105, April 2020 | Glick

Monetary Strategies in Practice

In Chapter 10 in Strategies for Monetary Policy: A Policy Conference, ed. by J. Cochrane and J. Taylor | Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, April 2020. 323-333 | Daly

A Century of the American Woman Voter: Sex Gaps in Political Participation, Preferences, and Partisanship Since Women’s Enfranchisement

Journal of Economic Perspectives 34(2), Spring 2020, 24-48 | Cascio and Shenhav

A Macroeconomic Model with Occasional Financial Crises

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 112, March 2020, 1-21 | Paul

Regulating Household Leverage

The Review of Economic Studies 87(2), March 2020, 914-958 | Mondragon, DeFusco and Johnson

Do Human Capital Decisions Respond to the Returns to Education? Evidence from DACA

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 12(1), February 2020, 293-324 | Kuka, Shenhav and Shih

Financial Dampening

Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 52(1), February 2020, 79-113 | Wieland and Yang

Inflation Globally

In Chapter 7, Changing Inflation Dynamics, Evolving Monetary Policy (Volume 27), ed. by G. Castex, J. Gali and D. Saravia | Santiago: Central Bank of Chile, 2020. 269-316 | Jorda and Nechio

Home Currency Issuance in International Bond Markets

Journal of International Economics 122, January 2020 | Hale, Jones and Spiegel

The Weak Job Recovery in a Macro Model of Search and Recruiting Intensity

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 12(1), January 2020, 310-343 | Leduc and Liu

Greater Inequality and Household Borrowing: New Evidence from Household Data

Journal of European Economic Association, January 2020 | Coibion, Gorodnichenko, Kudlyak and Mondragon

Cyclical and Market Determinants of Involuntary Part-Time Employment

Journal of Labor Economics 38(1), January 2020, 67-93 | Valletta, Bengali and van der List

Labor Market Dynamics and Black-White Earnings Gaps

Economics Letters 186, January 2020 | Daly, Hobijn and Pedtke

Abenomics, the Housing Market, and Consumption

The Economic Analysis 200, January 2020, 37-62 | Hausman, Unayama and Wieland

2019

Clearing the Fog: The Predictive Power of Weather for Employment Reports and their Asset Price Responses

American Economic Review: Insights 1(3), December 2019, 373-388 | Wilson

A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt

The Review of Economics and Statistics 101(5), December 2019, 933-949 | Christensen and Rudebusch

Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs

Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 51(7), 2019, 1857-1887 | Foerster and Davig

Structural Stability of the Generalized Taylor Rule

Macroeconomic Dynamics 23(4), 2019, 1,664-1,678 | Duzhak and Barnett

Deleveraging and Consumer Credit Supply in the Wake of the 2008-09 Financial Crisis

International Journal of Central Banking 15(3), September 2019, 205-251 | Krainer, Laderman and Gropp

Monitoring Banking System Connectedness with Big Data

Journal of Econometrics 212(1), September 2019, 203-220 | Hale and Lopez

Term Structure Analysis with Big Data: One-Step Estimation Using Bond Prices

Journal of Econometrics 212(1), September 2019, 26-46 | Andreasen, Christensen and Rudebusch

Divest, Disregard, or Double Down? Philanthropic Endowment Investments in Objectionable Firms

American Economic Review: Insights 1(2), September 2019, 241-256 | Roth Tran

Shock Transmission through Cross-Border Bank Lending: Credit and Real Effects

Forthcoming in Review of Financial Studies | Hale, Kapan and Minoiu

Missing Growth from Creative Destruction

American Economic Review 109(8), August 2019, 2795-2822 | Aghion, Bergeaud, Boppart, Klenow and Li

The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

Quarterly Journal of Economics 134(3), August 2019, 1225-1298 | Jorda, Knoll, Kuvshinov, Schularick and Taylor

How Segregated Is Urban Consumption?

Journal of Political Economy 127(4), August 2019, 1,684-1,738 | Davis, Dingel, Monras and Morales

Log-linear Approximation versus an Exact Solution at the ZLB in the New Keynesian Model

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 105, August 2019, 21-43 | Singh and Eggertsson

Aggregation Level in Stress Testing Models

Forthcoming in International Journal of Central Banking | Hale, Krainer and McCarthy

U.S. Monetary Policy and Fluctuations of International Bank Lending

Journal of International Money and Finance 95, July 2019, 251-268 | Avdjiev and Hale

Impulse Response Estimation by Smooth Local Projections

Review of Economics and Statistics 101(3), July 2019, 522-530 | Barnichon and Brownlees

The Intensity of Job Search and Search Duration

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11(3), July 2019, 327-357 | Kudlyak and Faberman

Minimum Wages and Spatial Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence

Journal of Labor Economics 37(3), July 2019, 853-904 | Monras

Are Negative Supply Shocks Expansionary at the Zero Lower Bound?

Journal of Political Economy 127(3), June 2019, 973-1,007 | Wieland

Reserve Requirements and Optimal Chinese Stabilization Policy

Journal of Monetary Economics 103, May 2019, 33-51 | Chang, Liu, Spiegel and Zhang

Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates

American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 109, May 2019, 427-432 | Mertens and Williams

A Reason to Wait: The Effect of Legal Status on Teen Pregnancy

American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings 109, May 2019, 213-217 | Kuka, Shenhav and Shih

Underemployment and the Trickle-Down of Unemployment

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11(2), April 2019, 40-78 | Barnichon and Zylberberg

Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most from a Strong Economy?

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2019, 333-375 | Aaronson, Daly, Wascher and Wilcox

Inflation Dynamics and Adaptive Expectations in an Estimated DSGE Model

Journal of Macroeconomics 59, 2019, 258-277 | Gelain, Lansing, Iskrev and Mendicino

Real Business Cycles, Animal Spirits, and Stock Market Valuation

International Journal of Economic Theory 15(1), March 2019, 77-94 | Lansing

Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums

IMF Economic Review 67(1), March 2019, 109-150 | Jorda, Schularick, Taylor and Ward

The Fed – The Green Dividend Dilemma: Carbon Dividends Versus Double Dividends

FEDS Notes, March 2019 | Fried, Novan and Peterman

Sentiments and U.S. Economic Activity: Evidence from States

Economic Journal 129(618), February 2019, 715-733 | Spiegel and Benhabib

Recovery from the Great Depression: The Farm Channel in Spring 1933

American Economic Review 109(2), February 2019, 427-445 | Hausman, Rhode and Wieland

Recent Flattening in the Higher Education Wage Premium: Polarization, Skill Downgrading, or Both?

In NBER-CRIW conference volume, “Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future U.S. GDP Growth”, ed. by Charles Hulten and Valerie Ramey | University of Chicago Press, 2019. 313-342 | Valletta

The Effect of Foreign Shocks on the Indian Economy

India Policy Forum 16(1), 2019, 1-54 | Singh and Lakdawala

Transmission of Quantitative Easing: The Role of Central Bank Reserves

Economic Journal 129, January 2019, 249-272 | Christensen and Krogstrup

The Effects of Government Spending on Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Military Spending Panel Data

Journal of International Economics 116, January 2019, 144-157 | Nguyen, Miyamoto and Sheremirov

2018

Does Medicare Part D Save Lives?

American Journal of Health Economics 5(1), Winter 2019, 126-164 | Shapiro and Dunn

Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Dollar: Conventional Signs, Unconventional Magnitudes

International Journal of Central Banking 14(5), December 2018, 103-152 | Glick and Leduc

Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse Engineering Approach

Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 50(8), December 2018, 1751-82 | Gelain, Lansing and Natvik

Bank Linkages and International Trade

Journal of International Economics 115, November 2018, 30-47 | Caballero, Candelaria and Hale

Functional Approximations of Impulse Responses (FAIR)

Journal of Monetary Economics 99, November 2018, 41-55 | Barnichon and Matthes

Leaning Against the Credit Cycle

Journal of the European Economic Association 16(5), 2018, 1350-93 | Gelain, Lansing and Natvik

Bank Performance Under Negative Rates

Voxeu, 2018 | Lopez, Rose and Spiegel

The Distributional Effects of a Carbon Tax on Current and Future Generations

Review of Economic Dynamics 30, October 2018, 30-46 | Fried, Novan and Peterman

The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output

Brookings Paper in Economic Activity 2018(Fall), Fall 2018, 343-411 | Coibion, Gorodnichenko and Ulate

Stuck in a Corner? Climate Policy in Developing Countries

Macroeconomic Dynamics 22(6), September 2018, 1535-1554 | Fried

Endogenous Disasters

American Economc Review 108(8), August 2018, 2212-2245 | Petrosky-Nadeau, Zhang and Kuehn

Government Spending Multipliers under Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 10(3), July 2018, 1-32 | Nguyen, Miyamoto and Sergeyev

Solving an Incomplete Markets Model with a Large Cross-Section of Agents

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 91, June 2018, 349-368 | Mertens and Judd

Financial Stability and the Resolution of Federal Reserve Goal and Implementation Conflicts

Journal of Financial Services Research 53, June 2018, 163-178 | Kwan, Eisenbeis and Wall

On the Demographic Adjustment of Unemployment

Review of Economics and Statistics 100(2), May 2018, 219-231 | Barnichon and Mesters

The Effects of Tax Changes at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan

American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings 108, May 2018, 513-518 | Nguyen, Kato, Miyamoto and Sergeyev

Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 36(2), 2018, 196-211 | Bauer

Breaking the "Iron Rice Bowl:" Evidence of Precautionary Savings from the Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Reform

Journal of Monetary Economics 94, 2018, 94-113 | He, Huang, Liu and Zhu

The Complexity of Billing and Paying for Physician Care

Health Affairs 37(4), 2018 | Dunn, Gottlieb and Shapiro

Sticker Shocks: Using VAT Changes to Estimate Upper-Level Elasticities of Substitution

Journal of the European Economic Association 17(3), April 2018, 799-833 | Hobijn and Nechio

Physician Competition and the Provision of Care: Evidence from Heart Attacks

American Journal of Health Economics 4(2), Spring 2018, 226-261 | Dunn and Shapiro

Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in a Leveraged Economy

Economic Journal 128(609), March 2018, 797-826 | Leduc and Natal

Disentangling Goods, Labor, and Credit Market Frictions in Three European Economies

Labour Economics 50, March 2018, 180-196 | Brzustowski, Petrosky-Nadeau and Wasmer

Bond Vigilantes and Inflation

International Journal of Central Banking 14(2), March 2018, 263-299 | Rose and Spiegel

Doubts and Variability: A Robust Perspective on Exotic Consumption Series

Journal of Economic Theory, March 2018 | Bidder and Smith

Top Incomes, Rising Inequality, and Welfare

Economic Journal 128, 2018, 262-297 | Lansing and Markiewicz

Decomposing Medical-Care Expenditure Growth

In Measuring and Modeling Health Care Costs, NBER Volume, ed. by Aizcorbe, Baker, Berndt, Cutler | University of Chicago, February 2018 | Shapiro, Dunn and Liebman

International Transmission of Japanese Monetary Shocks Under Low and Negative Interest Rates: A Global Factor-Augmented Vetor Autoregressive Approach

Pacific Economic Review 23(1), February 2018, 51-66 | Spiegel and Tai

Approximating Multisector New Keynesian Models

Economics Letters 163, 2018, 193-196 | Nechio and Carvalho

The Outlook for U.S. Labor Quality

In Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Economic Growth, NBER Studies in Income and Wealth, ed. by C. Hulten and V. Ramey | NBER/University of Chicago Press, 2018 | Bosler, Daly, Fernald and Hobijn

Climate Policy and Innovation: A Quantative Macroeconomic Analysis

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 10(1), January 2018, 90-118 | Fried

2017

Tax Competition among U.S. States: Racing to the Bottom or Riding on a Seesaw?

Journal of Public Economics 155, 2017, 147-163 | Chirinko and Wilson

Robust Bond Risk Premia

Review of Financial Studies, 2017 | Bauer and Hamilton

Scraping By: Income and Program Participation After the Loss of Extended Unemployment Benefits

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 36(4), Fall 2017, 880-908 | Rothstein and Valletta

Business Cycles in Small Open Economies: Evidence from Panel Data between 1900 and 2013

International Economic Review 58(3), August 2017, 1007-1044 | Nguyen and Miyamoto

From Origination to Renegotiation: A Comparison of Portfolio and Securitized Commercial Real Estate Loans

Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 55(1), July 2017, 1-31 | Black, Krainer and Nichols

Solving the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides Model Accurately

Quantitative Economics 8(2), July 2017, 611-650 | Petrosky-Nadeau and Zhang

The Labor Market Consequences of Refugee Supply Shocks

Economic Policy 32(91), July 2017, 361-413 | Borjas and Monras

The Effect of State Taxes on the Geographical Location of Top Earners: Evidence from Star Scientists

American Economic Review 107(7), 2017, 1858-1903 | Moretti and Wilson

Dollar Appreciation and Asian Economies

Vox China, 2017 | Liu, Spiegel and Tai

Measuring the Effects of Dollar Appreciation on Asia: A FAVAR Approach

Journal of International Money and Finance 74, June 2017, 353-370 | Liu, Spiegel and Tai

Currency Unions and Regional Trade Agreements: EMU and EU Effects of Trade

Comparative Economic Studies 59(2), June 2017, 194-209 | Glick

Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited

Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 36(3), May 2017, 371-387 | Angrist, Jorda and Kuersteiner

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants

Journal of International Economics 108, May 2017, S59-S75 | Williams, Holston and Laubach

Conditional PPP and Real Exchange Rate Convergence in the Euro Area

Journal of International Money and Finance 73, May 2017, 78-92 | Glick, Bergin and Wu

Composition and Aggregate Real Wage Growth

American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 107(5), May 2017, 349-352 | Daly and Hobijn

Understanding the Cross-Country Effects of U.S. Technology Shocks

Journal of International Economics 106, May 2017, 143-164 | Nguyen and Miyamoto

Are State Governments Roadblocks to Federal Stimulus? Evidence on the Flypaper Effect of Highway Grants in the 2009 Recovery Act

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 9(2), 2017, 253-292 | Leduc and Wilson

Guidelines for Measuring Disease Episodes: An Analysis of the Effects on the Components of Expenditure Growth

Health Services Research 52, April 2017, 720-740 | Shapiro, Dunn, Liebman and Rittmueller

The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment

American Economic Review 107(4), April 2017, 1059-1103 | Hassan and Mertens

Revisiting the Behavior of Small and Large Firms during the 2008 Financial Crisis

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 77(in progress), April 2017, 48-69 | Kudlyak and Sanchez

Supply-Side Policies in the Depression: Evidence from France

Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 49(2-3), March 2017, 273-317 | Cohen-Setton, Hausman and Wieland

Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models

Review of Finance 21, 2017, 511-553 | Bauer and Rudebusch

Work, Health, and Insurance: A Shifting Landscape for Employers and Workers Alike

Health Affairs 36(2), 2017, 214-221 | Valletta and Buchmueller

Explaining Exchange Rate Anomalies in a Model with Taylor-Rule Fundamentals and Consistent Expectations

Journal of International Money and Finance 70, 2017, 62-87 | Lansing and Ma

2016

A Contagious Maladay? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation

IMF Economic Review 64(4), 2016, 581-634 | Eggertsson, Mehrotra, Singh and Summers

Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy

Journal of Monetary Economics 84, December 2016, 30-65 | Curdia and Woodford

Protecting Working-Age People with Disabilities: Experiences of Four Industrialized Nations

Journal for Labour Market Research 49(4), December 2016, 367–386 | Burkhauser, Daly and Ziebarth

Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index

Data update web page, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, November 2016 | Kudlyak, Hornstein and Lange

Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?

Annual Review of Economics 8, October 2016, 465-496 | Fernald and Wang

Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities

Review of Economic Dynamics 22, October 2016, 208-222 | Nechio and Carvalho

Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero-Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation

Annual Review of Economics 9, October 2016, 497-520 | Carreras, Coibion, Gorodnichenko and Wieland

Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 48, 2016, 7 | Bauer and Rudebusch

Uncertainty Shocks Are Aggregate Demand Shocks

Journal of Monetary Economics 82, September 2016, 20-35 | Leduc and Liu

Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism

European Economic Review 88, September 2016, 208-226 | Carvalho, Ferrero and Nechio

Long-Run Risk Is the Worst-Case Scenario

American Economic Review 106 (9), September 2016, 2494-2527 | Bidder and Dew-Becker

Currency Unions and Trade: A Post-EMU Reassessment

European Economic Review 87, August 2016, 78-91 | Glick and Rose

Price Setting and Rapid Technology Adoption: The Case of the PC Industry

The Review of Economics and Statistics 98, July 2016, 601-616 | Copeland and Shapiro

Not So Disconnected: Exchange Rates and the Capital Stock

Journal of International Economics, July 2016 | Hassan, Mertens and Zhang

Financial Frictions, the Housing Market, and Unemployment

Journal of Economic Theory 164, July 2016, 101-135 | Branch, Petrosky-Nadeau and Rocheteau

Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models

Quantitative Economics 7(2), July 2016, 637-669 | Foerster, Rubio-Ramirez, Waggoner and Zha

Land Prices and Unemployment

Journal of Monetary Economics 80, June 2016, 86-105 | Liu, Miao and Zha

Shopping Time

Economics Letters 143, June 2016, 52-60 | Petrosky-Nadeau, Wasmer and Zeng

What Does Online Job Search Tell Us about the Labor Market?

FRB Chicago Economic Perspectives 40(1) , May 2016 | Kudlyak and Faberman

Forecasting Unemployment Across Countries: the Ins and Outs

European Economic Review 84, May 2016, 165-183 | Barnichon and Garda

What We Know About Real Wage Adjustment during the 2007-09 Recession and Its Aftermath

FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly 101(3), May 2016, 225-244 | Kudlyak

The Pre-Great Recession Slowdown in Productivity

European Economic Review 88(C), April 2016, 3-20 | Cette, Fernald and Mojon

On Variance Bounds for Asset Price Changes

Journal of Financial Markets 28, March 2016, 132-148 | Lansing

A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment

Journal of Macroeconomics 47A, March 2016, 5-18 | Rudebusch and Williams

The Euro and the Geography of International Debt Flows

Journal of the European Economic Association 14(1), February 2016, 115-144 | Hale and Obstfeld

The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy

Economic Journal 126(590), February 2016, 219-255 | Jorda and Taylor

Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences

Journal of the European Economic Association 14(1), February 2016, 45-79 | Jorda, Schularick and Taylor

Monetary Policy Regime Switches and Macroeconomic Dynamics

International Economic Review 57(1), February 2016, 211-230 | Foerster

Pricing Deflation Risk with U.S. Treasury Yields

Review of Finance 20, 2016, 1107-1152 | Christensen, Lopez and Rudebusch

Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?

In Dynamic Factor Models (Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 35), ed. by Eric Hillebrand and Siem Jan Koopman | Emerald Publishing Group, 2016. pp. 75-125 | Christensen and Rudebusch

The CARD Act and Young Borrowers: The Effects and the Affected

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 48(7), 2016, 1495-1513 | Kudlyak, Debbaut and Ghent

Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 30, 2016, 449-494 | Barnichon and Figura

The Great Mortgaging

Economic Policy 31(85), January 2016, 107-152 | Jorda, Schularick and Taylor