FRBSF Economic Letters are brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve. This section contains Economic Letters on monetary economics and macro-finance topics.
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The Changing Sensitivity of Interest Rates to Oil Supply News
Wataru Miyamoto, Rami Najjar, Thuy Lan Nguyen, Dmitriy Sergeyev
A decrease in oil supply drives up oil prices, which can raise unemployment and inflation. To counter adverse effects on inflation, a central bank may choose to increase its policy rate, potentially reducing economic activity further. Changing interest rates can thus shape how unexpected oil price changes affect the economy. In recent years, interest rates have become more sensitive to unexpected oil supply news. However, market-based long-term U.S. inflation expectations did not shift significantly in response to oil supply news, suggesting that the public’s inflation expectations remain well anchored.
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Modern Central Banking: Monetary Policy Implementation and Communication
Mary C. Daly
Central banks set policy to support the economy, provide liquidity, and promote financial stability. Modern central banking requires adaptation to current demands and a framework that fosters agility and readiness. Accordingly, central banks have used their balance sheets as policy tools over the past two decades. These tools demand clear communication to the public. The following is adapted from remarks presented by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco at the Institute of International and European Affairs in Dublin, Ireland, on November 13.
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Market Reactions to Tariff Announcements
Rohit Garimella, Simon Kwan, Thomas Mertens
Financial markets repriced assets across a wide range of sectors following the U.S. trade policy announcement on April 2, 2025. Analysis suggests that market participants interpreted tariffs to have direct effects not only on companies in the sectors involved but also indirect effects on overall demand. Investors expected declines in corporate profits to be persistent both in the United States and abroad. The U.S. dollar depreciated against other safe-haven currencies, which points to investors reallocating their portfolios away from the United States and toward other markets.
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The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium-Term Risk
Sophia Cho, Thomas Mertens, John Williams
Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates. The information from this statistical distribution can help measure the perceived risk of interest rates returning to the zero lower bound in the future. The risk varies over time, driven mainly by the expected level of interest rates. At longer forecast horizons, a higher risk of returning to the lower bound primarily reflects a higher amount of uncertainty. Currently, the perceived risk appears slim over the next few years but is significant at longer horizons.
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Dynamic Central Bank Communication
Mary C. Daly
Central banks have a responsibility to share information in ways that improve the public’s understanding. This communication must be consistent enough that people can follow, and dynamic enough that it can adjust to the circumstances that are faced. Federal Reserve communications over the past 30 years have evolved to become significantly more transparent. The following is adapted from remarks presented by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco at the Western Economic Association International 100th Annual Conference in San Francisco on June 22.
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Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?
Anton Bobrov, Rupal Kamdar, Caroline Paulson, Aditi Poduri, Mauricio Ulate
Monetary policy in the United States is determined by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a decisionmaking body that includes regional representation. Evidence shows that the economic conditions in their respective regions have influenced how presidents of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Districts voted at the FOMC meetings in past decades. Specifically, a 1 percentage point higher unemployment rate in a District relative to the national average is associated with a 9 percentage point higher probability of dissenting in favor of looser policy during the FOMC vote.
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A Rising Star: The Natural Interest Rate in the Euro Area
Jens H. E. Christensen, Sarah Mouabbi
The natural rate of interest, also known as r-star, is a key variable for analyzing fiscal and monetary policy. A novel method of measuring this rate for the euro area uses a yield curve model estimated directly on the prices of bonds that are indexed to euro-area inflation. Estimates suggest that the euro-area natural interest rate declined persistently in the two decades before the pandemic but has risen notably in recent years. Projections using this methodology suggest that the rate is likely to increase further, albeit more gradually.
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Underlying Trends in the U.S. Neutral Interest Rate
Carlos Carvalho, Andrea Ferrero, Felipe Mazin, Fernanda Nechio
After a prolonged decline, U.S. inflation-adjusted interest rates have increased somewhat since the pandemic—possibly implying a higher new normal. As central banks attempt to tame the post-pandemic inflationary bout, whether real rates will fall back closer to pre-pandemic levels will ultimately depend on the trends in their long-term underlying determinants. Estimates suggest that the pre-pandemic downward pressures from global factors and from U.S. population aging have faded, while fiscal conditions continue to put upward pressure on U.S. real rates.
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Do Low Survey Response Rates Threaten Data Dependence?
Sylvain Leduc, Luiz Edgard Oliveira, Caroline Paulson
Monetary policy is forward-looking and dependent on policymakers’ economic outlook. When the outlook is deemed highly uncertain, policymakers may put more weight on incoming data when making monetary policy considerations. However, falling survey response rates suggest employment and inflation data may have become less reliable. Analysis of payroll employment and consumer price inflation data shows that data revisions over the past few years have been in line with their pre-pandemic averages. This suggests that these data have not been an outsized source of uncertainty in recent years.
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Current Perceptions About Monetary Policy
Michael Bauer, Carolin Pflueger, Adi Sunderam
Surveys of professional economic forecasters and financial market data can reveal public perceptions about the future conduct of monetary policy. Current estimates suggest that both professional forecasters and investors expect the Federal Reserve to respond strongly and systematically to changes in economic conditions. The current perceived responsiveness to inflation is particularly high relative to past responsiveness. Furthermore, the perceived importance of employment as a driver of future policy interest rates has strengthened since 2024.