Recent Journal Articles

Published articles by staff economists

2025

Automation and the Rise of Superstar Firms

Published in Journal of Monetary Economics 151(103733), April 2025| Firooz, Liu, and Wang

Regional Dissent: Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?

Forthcoming in American Economic Review: Insights | Bobrov, Kamdar, and Ulate

The Transmission of Negative Nominal Interest Rates in Finland

Forthcoming in Journal of the European Economic Association | Kwan, Ulate, and Voutilainen

From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC’s New Employment Objective

Forthcoming in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics | Bundick and Petrosky-Nadeau

Enhanced Unemployment Insurance Benefits in the United States During COVID-19: Equity and Efficiency

Forthcoming in Handbook on Inequality and COVID-19, ed. by Kenneth A. Couch. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd | Valletta and Yilma

Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics

Published in Journal of Finance 80(2), April 2025, pp. 783-832 | Kruttli, Roth Tran, and Watugala

Local Projections

Published in Journal of Economic Literature 63(1), March 2025, pp. 59-110 | Jorda and Taylor

Entry Costs Rise with Growth

Published in Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics 3(1), March 2025, pp. 43-74 | Klenow and Li

Fiscal Policy Design and Inflation: The COVID-19 Pandemic Experience

Published in Journal of International Money and Finance 150(103210), February 2025| Hale, Leer, and Nechio

A Post-Pandemic New Normal for Interest Rates in Emerging Bond Markets? Evidence from Chile

Published in Journal of International Money and Finance 150(103234), February 2025| Ceballos, Christensen, and Romero

Micro MPCs and Macro Counterfactuals: The Case of the 2008 Rebates

Published in Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 2025| Orchard, Ramey, and Wieland

Subjective Housing Price Expectations, Falling Natural Rates, and the Optimal Inflation Target

Published in Journal of Monetary Economics 149(103647), January 2025 | Adam, Pfauti, and Reinelt

Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach

Published in Quantitative Economics 16(1), January 2025, pp. 1-47 | Benigno, Foerster, Otrok, and Rebucci

A Simple Measure of Anchoring for Short-Run Expected Inflation in FIRE Models

Published in Economics Letters 246(112050), January 2025 | Jorgensen and Lansing

Labor Market Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Published in Journal of Monetary Economics 149(103724), January 2025, pp. 1-14 | Ulate, Vasquez, and Zarate

2024

Competitive Effects of IPOs: Evidence from Chinese Listing Suspensions

Published in Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 56(8), December 2024, pp. 2,137-2,169 | Packer and Spiegel

Phillips Meets Beveridge

Published in Journal of Monetary Economics 148 Supplement (103660), November 2024 | Barnichon and Shapiro

Understanding the Inequality and Welfare Impacts of Carbon Tax Policies

Published in Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 11(S1), November 2024 | Fried, Novan, and Peterman

Perceptions about Monetary Policy

Published in Quarterly Journal of Economics 139(4), November 2024, pp. 2,227-2,278 | Bauer, Pflueger, and Sunderam

Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations

Published in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 16(4), October 2024, pp. 311-349 | Leduc and Liu

Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework

Published in Review of Economic Studies 91(5), October 2024, pp. 3,013-3,046 | L’Huillier, Singh, and Yoo

Optimally Imprecise Memory and Biased Forecasts

Published in American Economic Review 114(10), October 2024, pp. 3,075–3,118 | da Silveira, Sung and Woodford

Replicating Business Cycles and Asset Returns with Sentiment and Low Risk Aversion

Published in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 167(104921), October 2024 | Lansing

Decomposing Supply and Demand Driven Inflation

Published in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, October 2024 | Shapiro

Climate Policy Curves Highlight Key Mitigation Choices

Published in Climate Policy 25(3), September 2024, pp. 504-510 | Hansel, Bauer, Drupp, Wagner, and Rudebusch

Pandemic Layoffs and the Role of Stay-at-Home Orders

Published in Economics Letters 242(111894), September 2024 | Kudlyak and Wolcott

Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico

Published in Journal of International Economics 151, September 2024 | Beauregard, Christensen, Fischer and Zhu

Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico

Published in Journal of International Economics 151(103961) September 2024 | Beauregard, Christensen, Fischer, and Zhu

Understanding Climate Damages: Consumption versus Investment

Published in European Economic Review 167(104799), August 2024 | Casey, Fried, and Gibson

Changing Global Input-Output Linkages and Demand Spillovers

Published in IMF Economic Review 71, August 2024, pp. 1,125-1,151 | Nguyen and Miyamoto

Climate Change, The Food Problem, and the Challenge of Adaptation through Sectoral Reallocation

Forthcoming in Journal of Political Economy | Nath

What and How the Public Knows about the Fed

Forthcoming in The Journal of Economic Education | Duzhak, Lopus, and Hoff

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021

Published in PLOS Computational Biology 20(5), 2024 | Wilson and Lopez et al.

Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment

Published in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 16(3), July 2024, pp. 389-416 | Cuba-Borda and Singh

Monetary Policy, Markup Dispersion, and Aggregate TFP

Published in Review of Economics and Statistics 106(4), July 2024, pp. 1,012-1,027 | Reinelt and Meier

The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act

Forthcoming in Advances in Econometrics | Bauer, Offner, and Rudebusch

UI Generosity and Job Acceptance: Effects of the 2020 CARES Act

Forthcoming in Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics | Petrosky-Nadeau and Valletta

Evergreening

Published in Journal of Financial Economics March 2024 | Faria-e-Castro, Paul, and Sanchez

A Denial a Day Keeps the Doctor Away

Published in Quarterly Journal of Economics 139, February 2024, 187-233 | Dunn, Gottlieb, Shapiro, Sonnenstuhl, and Tebaldi

International Input-Output Linkages and Changing Business Cycle Volatility

Published in Journal of International Economics 147(103869), January 2024 | Nguyen and Miyamoto

Challenges to Disinflation: The Brazilian Experience

Published in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, January 2024, 217-241 | Nechio and Carvalho

2023

Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico

Forthcoming in Journal of International Economics | Beauregard, Christensen, Fischer and Zhu

2022

Teachers’ Knowledge and Attitudes about the Fed

Forthcoming in Journal of Economics and Finance Education | Duzhak, Hoff and Lopus

Bank Capital before and after Financial Crises

In Ch. 5 in Leveraged: The New Economics of Debt and Financial Fragility, ed. by Moritz Schularick | Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2022 | Jorda, Richter, Schularick and Taylor

The Labour Market in Ukraine: Rebuild Better

In Chapter 10 in Rebuilding Ukraine: Principles and Policies, ed. by Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, Ilona Sologoub, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro | CEPR Press, London, 2022 | Kudlyak, Boeri, Anastasia and Zholud

2021

Unemployment Crises

Journal of Monetary Economics 117, January 2021, 335-353 | Petrosky-Nadeau and Zhang

2020

Monetary Strategies in Practice

In Chapter 10 in Strategies for Monetary Policy: A Policy Conference, ed. by J. Cochrane and J. Taylor | Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, April 2020. 323-333 | Daly

Inflation Globally

In Chapter 7, Changing Inflation Dynamics, Evolving Monetary Policy (Volume 27), ed. by G. Castex, J. Gali and D. Saravia | Santiago: Central Bank of Chile, 2020. 269-316 | Jorda and Nechio

2019

2018

Endogenous Disasters

American Economc Review 108(8), August 2018, 2212-2245 | Petrosky-Nadeau, Zhang and Kuehn

The Outlook for U.S. Labor Quality

In Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Economic Growth, NBER Studies in Income and Wealth, ed. by C. Hulten and V. Ramey | NBER/University of Chicago Press, 2018 | Bosler, Daly, Fernald and Hobijn

2017

2016

Shopping Time

Economics Letters 143, June 2016, 52-60 | Petrosky-Nadeau, Wasmer and Zeng

2015

Leveraged Bubbles

Journal of Monetary Economics 76, December 2015, S1-S20 | Jorda, Schularick and Taylor

Betting the House

Journal of International Economics 96(S1), July 2015, S2-S18 | Jorda, Schularick and Taylor