Senior Research Advisor
Macroeconomics, Applied econometrics, Labor
CV (pdf, 94.99 kb)
Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes)
Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It’s in the Sign
Forthcoming in The Review of Economic Studies | with Debortoli and Matthesabstract (+)
A Menu of Insurance Contracts for the Unemployed
Forthcoming in The Review of Economic Studies | with Zylberbergabstract (+)
Are the Effects of Financial Market Disruptions Big or Small?
Forthcoming in Review of Economics and Statistics | with Matthes and Ziegenbeinabstract (+)
Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation
Forthcoming in NBER Macroeconomics Annual | with Figuraabstract (+)
The Phillips Multiplier
Journal of Monetary Economics 117, January 2021, 689-705 | with Mestersabstract (+)
Identifying Modern Macro Equations with Old Shocks
The Quarterly Journal of Economics 135 (4), November 2020 | with Mestersabstract (+)
Impulse Response Estimation by Smooth Local Projections
Review of Economics and Statistics 101(3), July 2019, 522-530 | with Brownleesabstract (+)
Underemployment and the Trickle-Down of Unemployment
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11(2), April 2019, 40-78 | with Zylberbergabstract (+)
Functional Approximations of Impulse Responses (FAIR)
Journal of Monetary Economics 99, November 2018, 41-55 | with Matthesabstract (+)
On the Demographic Adjustment of Unemployment
Review of Economics and Statistics 100(2), May 2018, 219-231 | with Mestersabstract (+)
Forecasting Unemployment Across Countries: the Ins and Outs
European Economic Review 84, May 2016, 165-183 | with Gardaabstract (+)
Labor Market Heterogeneity and the Aggregate Matching Function
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 7 (4), October 2015, 222–249 | with Figuraabstract (+)
The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2012 | with Nekardaabstract (+)
Which Industries Are Shifting the Beveridge Curve?
Monthly Labor Review June, June 2012, 25-37 | with Elsby, Hobijn, and Sahinabstract (+)
Vacancy posting, Job Separation and Unemployment Fluctuations
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, March 2012abstract (+)
Productivity and Unemployment over the Business Cycle
Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2010abstract (+)
Building a Composite Help-Wanted Index
Economics Letters, November 2010abstract (+)
The Optimal Level of Reserves for Low-Income Countries: Self-Insurance against External Shocks
IMF Staff Papers 56 (4), 2009abstract (+)
Sources of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa
Journal of African Economies 17.(5.) , 2008 | with Peirisabstract (+)
What If? Monetary Policy in Hindsight
Economic Letter 2022-28 | October 11, 2022
What’s the Best Measure of Economic Slack?
Economic Letter 2022-04 | February 22, 2022 | with Shapiro
Is the American Rescue Plan Taking Us Back to the ’60s?
Economic Letter 2021-27 | October 18, 2021 | with Oliveira and Shapiro
Can Government Spending Help to Escape Recessions?
Economic Letter 2021-02 | February 1, 2021 | with Debortoli and Matthes
Adjusting the Unemployment Thermometer
Economic Letter 2020-27 | September 3, 2020 | with Yee
Is the Hot Economy Pulling New Workers into the Labor Force?
Economic Letter 2019-15 | May 20, 2019
The Financial Crisis at 10: Will We Ever Recover?
Economic Letter 2018-19 | August 13, 2018 | with Matthes and Ziegenbein
The Natural Rate of Unemployment over the Past 100 Years
Economic Letter 2017-23 | August 14, 2017 | with Matthes
How Tight Is the U.S. Labor Market?
Economic Letter 2017-07 | March 20, 2017 | with Mesters