Stephie Fried, Senior Economist, San Francisco Fed

Stephie Fried

Senior Economist

Climate change, economic growth, macroeconomics

stephie.fried (at)

CV (pdf, 27.6 kb)

Profiles: Personal website

Working Papers
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Electricity and Firm Productivity: A General-Equilibrium Approach

Unpublished manuscript | with Lagakos | December 2020

How Should Carbon Tax Revenue be Recycled?

Unpublished manuscript | with Novan and Peterman | August 2020

The Macro Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty

2021-06 | with Novan and Peterman | February 2021

abstract (+)
Uncertainty surrounding if and when the U.S. government will implement a federal climate policy introduces risk into the decision to invest in capital used in conjunction with fossil fuels. To quantify the macroeconomic impacts of this climate policy risk, we develop a dynamic, general equilibrium model that incorporates beliefs about future climate policy. We find that climate policy risk reduces carbon emissions by causing the capital stock to shrink and become relatively cleaner. Our results reveal, however, that a carbon tax could achieve the same reduction in emissions at less than half the cost.
Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes)
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Seawalls and Stilts: A Quantitative Macro Study of Climate Adaptation

Forthcoming in Review of Economic Studies

abstract (+)
Can we reduce the damage from climate change by investing in seawalls, stilts, or other forms of adaptation? Focusing on the case of severe storms in the US, I develop a macro heterogeneous-agent model to quantify the interactions between adaptation, federal disaster policy, and climate change. The model departs from the standard climate damage function and incorporates the damage from storms as the realization of idiosyncratic shocks. I find that while the moral hazard effects from disaster aid reduce adaptation in the US economy, federal subsidies for investment in adaptation more than correct for the moral hazard. I introduce climate change into the model as a permanent increase in either or both the severity or probability of storms. Adaptation reduces the damage from this climate change by approximately one third. Finally, I show that modeling the idiosyncratic risk component of climate damage has quantitatively important implications for adaptation and for the welfare cost of climate change.
Rural Electrification, Migration and Structural Transformation: Evidence From Ethiopia,”

Forthcoming in Regional Science and Urban Economics | with Lagakos

The Fed – The Green Dividend Dilemma: Carbon Dividends Versus Double Dividends

FEDS Notes, March 2019 | with Novan and Peterman

The Distributional Effects of a Carbon Tax on Current and Future Generations

Review of Economic Dynamics 30, October 2018, 30-46 | with Novan and Peterman

Stuck in a Corner? Climate Policy in Developing Countries

Macroeconomic Dynamics 22(6), September 2018, 1535-1554

Climate Policy and Innovation: A Quantative Macroeconomic Analysis

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 10(1), January 2018, 90-118

FRBSF Publications
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