
Thomas Mertens
Vice President
Financial Research
Finance, Macroeconomics, and International finance
CV (pdf, 125.35 kb)
Profiles: Google Scholar | RePEc | SSRN | Personal website
Working Papers
Volatile Stock Markets: Equilibrium Computation and Policy Analysis
Unpublished manuscript | with Schneemeier | November 2011
Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds
2022-06 | with Bok and Williams | June 2023
abstract (+)Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes)
What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices
American Economic Review 111(8), August 2021, 2473-2505
abstract (+)Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates
In Chapter 3 in Strategies for Monetary Policy, ed. by John Cochrane and John Taylor | Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution, 2020. 103-172 | with Williams
Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 109, May 2019, 427-432 | with Williams
abstract (+)Solving an Incomplete Markets Model with a Large Cross-Section of Agents
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 91, June 2018, 349-368 | with Judd
abstract (+)The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment
American Economic Review 107(4), April 2017, 1059-1103 | with Hassan
abstract (+)Not So Disconnected: Exchange Rates and the Capital Stock
Journal of International Economics, July 2016 | with Hassan and Zhang
abstract (+)Information Aggregation in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model
In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, 29, ed. by Parker and Woodford | National Bureau of Economic Research, 2015. 159-207 | with Hassan
abstract (+)Fraud Deterrence in Dynamic Mirrleesian Economies
Journal of Monetary Economics 60(2), March 2013, 139-151 | with Armenter
abstract (+)Market Sentiment: A Tragedy of the Commons
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 101(3), May 2011, 402-405 | with Hassan
abstract (+)Consumer Finance Protection
In Regulating Wall Street: The Dodd-Frank Act and the New Architecture of Global Finance, ed. by Acharya, Cooley, Richardson, and Walter | Hoboken, NJ: NYU Stern School of Business and John Wiley & Sons, 2011. 73-84 | with others
Central Bank Independence and the Role of the Fed
In Real-Time Solutions for Financial Reform, ed. by Acharya, Cooley, Richardson, and Walter | New York: NYU Stern Working Group on Financial Reform, 2009 | with others
Consumer Finance Protection Agency: Is There a Need?
In Real-Time Solutions for Financial Reform, ed. by Acharya, Cooley, Richardson, and Walter | New York: NYU Stern Working Group on Financial Reform, 2009 | with others
FRBSF Publications
Recession Prediction on the Clock
Economic Letter 2022-36 | December 27, 2022
Current Recession Risk According to the Yield Curve
Economic Letter 2022-11 | May 9, 2022 | with Bauer
Effects of Asset Valuations on U.S. Wealth Distribution
Economic Letter 2021-24 | August 30, 2021 | with Diwan and Duzhak
Average-Inflation Targeting and the Effective Lower Bound
Economic Letter 2020-22 | August 10, 2020 | with Diwan and Leduc
Market Assessment of COVID-19
Economic Letter 2020-14 | May 28, 2020 | with Kwan
Zero Lower Bound Risk according to Option Prices
Economic Letter 2019-24 | September 23, 2019 | with Bauer
Did the Yield Curve Flip? Will the Economy Dip?
SF Fed Blog | Feb 2019 | with Bauer
Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions
Economic Letter 2018-20 | August 27, 2018 | with Bauer
Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve
Economic Letter 2018-07 | March 5, 2018 | with Bauer
Valuation Ratios for Households and Businesses
Economic Letter 2018-01 | January 8, 2018 | with Shultz and Tubbs
China’s Exchange Rate Policies and U.S. Financial Markets
Economic Letter 2017-28 | October 2, 2017 | with Shultz
Has the Dollar Become More Sensitive to Interest Rates?
Economic Letter 2017-18 | June 26, 2017 | with Fernald and Shultz