Published articles by staff economists
2023
A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Macro Policy Evaluation
American Economic Review 113(11), November 2023, 2, 809-2, 845 | Barnichon and Mesters
A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents
Review of Economic Studies 90(6), November 2023, 2, 675-2, 702 | Aghion, Bergeaud, Boppart, Klenow and Li
Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps
Review of Economic Studies 90(6) , November 2023, 2, 822-2, 879 | Singh and Caramp
Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered
IMF Economic Review, November 2023 | Jorda, Schularick and Taylor
Top Incomes, Rising Inequality and Welfare
Economic Journal Virtual Issues: Economics of Income and Wealth Distribution Collection, 2023 | Lansing and Markiewicz
Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework
Forthcoming in Review of Economic Studies | L’Huillier, Singh and Yoo
Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 55(7), October 2023, 1, 641-1, 665 | Paul
Electricity and Firm Productivity: A General-Equilibrium Approach
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 15(4), October 2023, 67-103 | Fried and Lagakos
The Quality-Adjusted Cyclical Price of Labor
Journal of Labor Economics 41(S1), October 2023, S13-S59 | Bils, Kudlyak and Lins
The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market
The Review of Economics and Statistics 105(5), September 2023, 1, 255-1, 270 | Rudebusch and Bauer
Selection into Identification in Fixed Effects Models with Application to Head Start
Journal of Human Resources 58(5), September 2023, 1, 523-1, 566 | Miller, Shenhav and Grosz
Exchange Rate Misalignment and External Imbalances: What Is the Optimal Monetary Policy Response?
Journal of International Economics 144(103771), September 2023 | Corsetti, Dedola and Leduc
Local Projections for Applied Economics
Annual Review of Economics 15, September 2023, 607-631 | Jorda
Job Creation Tax Credits, Fiscal Foresight, And Job Growth: Evidence From U.S. States
National Tax Journal, 2023 | Chirinko and Wilson
Currency Areas, Labor Markets, and Regional Cyclical Sensitivity
Forthcoming in IMF Economic Review | Russ, Shambaugh and Singh
Challenges to Disinflation: the Brazilian Experience
Forthcoming in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity | Nechio and Carvalho
Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations
Forthcoming in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics | Leduc and Liu
Inflation and Wage Growth since the Pandemic
European Economic Review 156(104474), July 2023 | Jorda and Nechio
Supply or Demand? Policymakers’ Confusion in the Presence of Hysteresis
Forthcoming in European Economic Review | Fatas and Singh
Tariffs and the Macroeconomy
Oxford Research Encyclopedia in Economics and Finance, July 2023 | Meng, Russ and Singh
Bringing “Behavioral” Fully into Behavioral Public Administration
Journal of Behavioral Public Administration 6(1), 2023, 1-8 | Banko-Ferran, Bengali and Bhanot
A Denial a Day Keeps the Doctor Away
Forthcoming in Quarterly Journal of Economics | Dunn, Gottlieb, Shapiro, Sonnenstuhl and Tebaldi
Fiscal Capacity and Commercial Bank lending Under COVID-19
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 68, June 2023 | Aizenman, Jinjarek and Spiegel
Projecting the Impacts of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics
IMF Economic Review Online first article, June 2023 | Casey, Fried and Goode
The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?
Forthcoming in Review of Income and Wealth | Fernald, Inklaar and Ruzic
A Global View of Creative Destruction
Journal of Political Economy: Macroeconomics 1(2), June 2023, 243-275 | Hsieh, Klenow and Nath
Capital Flows and Income Inequality
Journal of International Economics 144 (103776), 2023 | Liu, Spiegel and Zhang
Measuring Work from Home in the Cross-Section
AEA Papers and Proceedings 113, May 2023, 614-618 | Mondragon
Taxing Billionaires: Estate Taxes and the Geographical Location of the Ultra-Wealthy
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2023 | Wilson and Moretti
Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico
Forthcoming in Journal of International Economics | Beauregard, Christensen, Fischer and Zhu
World Productivity: 1996-2014
Forthcoming in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics | Esfahani, Fernald and Hobijn
Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier
Review of Economic Studies, April 2023 | Dupor, Karabarbounis, Kudlyak and Mehkari
Learning in the Oil Futures Markets: Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications
Review of Economics and Statistics 105(2), March 2023, 392-407 | Leduc, Moran and Vigfusson
Central Bank Credibility During COVID-19: Evidence from Japan
Journal of International Money and Finance 131, March 2023 | Christensen and Spiegel
An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”
American Economic Review 113(3), March 2023, 664-700 | Bauer and Swanson
Competitive Effects of IPOs: Evidence from Chinese Listing Suspensions
Forthcoming in Journal of Money Credit and Banking | Packer and Spiegel
In Search of Dominant Drivers of the Real Exchange Rate
Forthcoming in Review of Economics and Statistics | Nguyen, Miyamoto and Oh
A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification
NBER Macroeconomic Annual 2022 37(1), 2023, 87-155 | Bauer and Swanson
Productivity Slowdown: Reducing the Measure of Our Ignorance
In Ch. 10 in The Economics of Creative Destruction: New Research on Themes from Aghion and Howitt, ed. by Ufuk Akcigit and John Van Reenen | Harvard University Press , 2023 | Li and Boppart
Communicating Monetary Policy Rules
European Economic Review 151, January 2023, 104290 | Davig and Foerster
Banks, Maturity Transformation, and Monetary Policy
Journal of Financial Intermediation 53, January 2023 | Paul
Small Business Lending under the PPP and PPPLF Programs
Journal of Financial Intermediation 53(101017), January 2023 | Lopez and Spiegel
2022
Risk Appetite and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy
Journal of Economic Perspectives 37(1), Winter 2023, 77-100 | Bauer, Bernanke and Milstein
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends
Journal of Political Economy 130(12), 2022, 3025-3342 | Foerster, Hornstein, Sarte and Watson
Monetary Reforms and Inflation Expectations in Japan: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds
Journal of Econometrics 231(2), December 2022, 410-431 | Christensen and Spiegel
Where Is the Carbon Premium? Global Performance of Green and Brown Stocks
Journal of Climate Finance 1, December 2022 | Bauer, Huber, Rudebusch and Wilms
Learning about Regime Change
International Economic Review 63(4), 2022, 1829-1859 | Foerster and Matthes
Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement
Management Science 68(11), 2022, 8, 286-8, 300 | Christensen, Lopez and Mussche
Immigration and Spatial Equilibrium: The Role of Expenditures in the Country of Origin
American Economic Review 112(11), November 2022, 3, 763-3, 802 | Albert and Monras
Seawalls and Stilts: A Quantitative Macro Study of Climate Adaptation
Review of Economic Studies 89(6), November 2022, 3, 303-3, 344 | Fried
Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits
Quarterly Journal of Economics 137(4), November 2022, 2, 037-2, 105 | Carleton, Jina, Delgado, Greenstone, Houser, Hsiang, Hultgren, Kopp, McCusker, Nath, Rising, Rode, Seo, Viaene, Yuan, Zhang and Tianbo
Taking the Fed at Its Word: A New Approach to Estimating Central Bank Objectives Using Text Analysis
Review of Economic Studies 89(5), October 2022, 2, 768-2, 805 | Shapiro and Wilson
Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy
Review of Financial Studies 35(10), October 2022, 4, 561-4, 586 | Kornejew, Jorda, Schularick and Taylor
The Inexorable Recoveries of Unemployment
Journal of Monetary Economics 131, October 2022, 15-25 | Kudlyak and Hall
Assessing Evidence for Inattention to the Costs of Homeownership
Journal of Housing Economics 58(part B), 2022 | Bengali
A Portfolio Model of Quantitative Easing
Quarterly Journal of Finance 12(4), 2022, 2250011-1-2250011-39 | Christensen and Krogstrup
Climate Policy Transition Risk and the Macroeconomy
European Economic Review 147(104174), August 2022 | Fried, Novan and Peterman
The Production Approach to Markup Estimation Often Measures Input Distortions
Economics Letters 217, August 2022 | Hashemi, Kirov and Traina
Sellin’ in the Rain: Weather, Climate, and Retail Sales
Forthcoming in Management Science | Roth Tran
The Humanitarian Cost of War on Ukraine and the Path for Rebuilding
CEPR Policy Insight Report 117, 2022, 1-12 | Gorodnichenko, Kudlyak and Şahin
The Impact of Reserves Practices on Bank Opacity
Journal of Financial Management, Markets, and Institutions 10(1), 2022, 1-26 | Kwan and Iannotta
A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks
Journal of Economic Theory 203 (105484), 2022 | Dong, Liu, Wang and Zha
Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty
The Economic Journal 132(644), May 2022, 1290–1308 | Bauer, Lakdawala and Mueller
Are the Effects of Financial Market Disruptions Big or Small?
Review of Economics and Statistics 104(3), May 2022, 557-570 | Barnichon, Matthes and Ziegenbein
Teachers’ Knowledge and Attitudes about the Fed
Forthcoming in Journal of Economics and Finance Education | Duzhak, Hoff and Lopus
Examining the Sources of Excess Return Predictability: Stochastic Volatility or Market Inefficiency?
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 197, 2022, 50-72 | Lansing, LeRoy and Ma
Monetary Policy Spillovers Under COVID-19: Evidence from Lending by U.S. Foreign Bank Subsidiaries
Journal of International Money and Finance 122, April 2022, 102550 | Spiegel
Search with Wage Posting under Sticky Prices
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 54(2-3), 2022, 599-626 | Foerster and Mustre-del-Rio
Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years? 2020-20 | With Hall | June 2021
In NBER Macroeconomic Annual 36 | University of Chicago Press for NBER, 2022 | Hall and Kudlyak
Bank Capital before and after Financial Crises
In Ch. 5 in Leveraged: The New Economics of Debt and Financial Fragility, ed. by Moritz Schularick | Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2022 | Jorda, Richter, Schularick and Taylor
The Labour Market in Ukraine: Rebuild Better
In Chapter 10 in Rebuilding Ukraine: Principles and Policies, ed. by Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, Ilona Sologoub, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro | CEPR Press, London, 2022 | Kudlyak, Boeri, Anastasia and Zholud
Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It’s in the Sign
The Review of Economic Studies 89(1), January 2022, 87-117 | Barnichon, Debortoli and Matthes
Does Quantitative Easing Affect Market Liquidity?
Journal of Banking and Finance 134, January 2022 | Christensen and Gillan
Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
Review of Economics and Statistics 104(1), January 2022, 166-175 | Jorda, Singh and Taylor
A Menu of Insurance Contracts for the Unemployed
The Review of Economic Studies 89(1), 2022, 118-141 | Barnichon and Zylberberg
2021
The TIPS Liquidity Premium
Review of Finance 25(6), 2021, 1639–1675 | Andreasen, Christensen and Riddell
Rural Electrification, Migration and Structural Transformation: Evidence From Ethiopia
Regional Science and Urban Economics 91(103625), November 2021 | Fried and Lagakos
Taylor Rule Estimation by OLS
Journal of Monetary Economics 124, November 2021, 140-154 | Nechio, Carvalho and Tristao
Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches
Review of Economic Dynamics 42, 2021, 333-346 | Foerster and Choi
Estimating a Social Cost of Carbon for Global Energy Consumption
Nature 598, 2021, 308-314 | Rode, Carleton, Delgado, Greenstone, Houser, Hsiang, Hultgren, Jina, Kopp, McCusker, Nath, Rising and Yuan
The Transmission of Monetary Policy under the Microscope
Journal of Political Economy 129 (10), October 2021, 2861-2904 | Holm, Paul and Tischbirek
The Economic Gains from Equity
Brookings Papers on Economic Equity, Fall 2021, 71-111 | Buckman, Choi, Daly and Seitelman
Women’s Suffrage and Children’s Education
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 13(3), August 2021, 374-405 | Kose, Kuka and Shenhav
What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices
American Economic Review 111(8), August 2021, 2473-2505 | Mertens
Bond Flows and Liquidity: Do Foreigners Matter?
Journal of International Money and Finance 117-102397, 2021, 1-20 | Christensen, Fischer and Shultz
Monetary Policy under Global Uncertainty: 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference Summary
Journal of International Money and Finance 114, June 2021, 1-2 | Liu and Spiegel
Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data (Reprint)
Journal of International Money and Finance 114(102406), June 2021 | Fernald, Hsu and Spiegel
Resolving “Too Big to Fail”
Journal of Financial Services Research 60(1), June 2021 | Cetorelli and Traina
BLP Estimation Using Laplace Transformation and Overlapping Simulation Draws
Journal of Econometrics 222(1), Part A, May 2021, 56-72 | Hong, Li and J. Li
Using Brexit to Identify the Nature of Price Rigidities
Journal of International Economics 130(103448), May 2021 | Hobijn, Nechio and Shapiro
The Economic Status of People with Disabilities and their Families since the Great Recession
In The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 695(1), ed. by J. Romich, T. Smeeding, and M.Strain | Russell Sage Foundation , May 2021. 123-142 | Daly, Bengali, Lofton and Valletta
Lowering Standards to Wed? Spouse Quality, Marriage, and Labor Market Responses to the Gender Wage Gap
The Review of Economics and Statistics 103(2), May 2021, 265-279 | Shenhav
Interest-Rate Liberalization and Capital Misallocations
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 13(2), April 2021, 373-419 | Liu, Wang and Xu
Medicaid Expansion and the Unemployed
Journal of Labor Economics Vol. 39, No. S2, April 2021, S575-617 | Valletta, Buchmueller and Levy
Local Adjustment to Immigrant-Driven Labor Supply Shocks
Journal of Human Capital 15(1), Spring 2021, 204-235 | Monras
Chair the Fed: Insights from Game Usage Data
Journal of Economic Education 52(2), 2021, 89-101 | Duzhak, Hoff and Lopus
Alternative Models of Interest Rate Pass-Through in Normal and Negative Territory
International Journal of Central Banking 17 (1), 2021, 3-34 | Ulate
Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data
Journal of International Money and Finance 110(102262), February 2021 | Fernald, Hsu and Spiegel
De-leveraging or De-risking? How Banks Cope with Loss
Review of Economic Dynamics 39, 2021, 100-127 | Bidder, Krainer and Shapiro
Endogenous Forecast Switching Near the Zero Lower Bound
Journal of Monetary Economics 117, 2021, 153-169 | Lansing
Unemployment Crises
Journal of Monetary Economics 117, January 2021, 335-353 | Petrosky-Nadeau and Zhang
Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China
Journal of Monetary Economics 117, January 2021, 1041-1061 | Liu, Spiegel and Zhang
Tra i Leoni: Revealing the Preferences Behind a Superstition
Journal of Economic Psychology Volume 82, January 2021, Article 102324 | Invernizzi, Miller, Coen, Dufwenberg and Oliveira
The Phillips Multiplier
Journal of Monetary Economics 117, January 2021, 689-705 | Barnichon and Mesters
Output Hysteresis and Optimal Monetary Policy
Journal of Monetary Economics 117, January 2021, 871-886 | Singh and Garga
Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound: The Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates
American Economic Review 111, 2021, 1-40 | Ulate
2020
Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections
Forthcoming in Journal of Econometrics | Diebold and Rudebusch
The Expectational Effects of News in Business Cycles: Evidence from Forecast Data
Journal of Monetary Economics 116, December 2020, 184-200 | Nguyen and Miyamoto
Financial Market Development, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Brazil
In BIS Papers: Financial Market Development, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Emerging Market Economies 113 | Bank for International Settlements, December 2020. 55-65 | Nechio and Barroso
Capital Regulations, Bank Risk-Taking, and Monetary Policy in China
VoxChina, 2020 | Liu, X. Li, Peng and Xu
The Effects of the Chair the Fed Simulation on High School Students’ Knowledge
The American Economist 66(4), 2020 | Duzhak, Hoff and Lopus
Identifying Modern Macro Equations with Old Shocks
The Quarterly Journal of Economics 135 (4), November 2020 | Barnichon and Mesters
The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices
Review of Economics and Statistics 102(4), October 2020, 690-704 | Paul
No Job, No Money, No Refi: Frictions to Refinancing in a Recession
Journal of Finance 75(5), October 2020, 2327-2376 | Mondragon and DeFusco
Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future
International Productivity Monitor 38, September 2020, 104-135 | Fernald and Inklaar
Replicating and Projecting the Path of COVID-19 with a Model-Implied Reproduction Number
Infectious Disease Modelling 5, 2020, 635-651 | Buckman, Glick, Lansing, Petrosky-Nadeau and Seitelman
Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crises
Forthcoming in Review of Economic Studies | Jorda, Richter, Schularick and Taylor
Immigration and Wage Dynamics: Evidence from the Mexican Peso Crisis
Journal of Political Economy 128(8), August 2020, 3, 017-3, 089 | Monras
Is There an On-the-Run Premium in TIPS?
Quarterly Journal of Finance 10(2), 2020 | Christensen, Lopez and Shultz
What Do Recoveries from Past US Recessions Teach Us about the Recovery from the Pandemic Recession?
VoxEU, 2020 | Hall and Kudlyak
The Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments
Journal of Monetary Economics 112, June 2020, 22-40 | Jorda, Schularick and Taylor
Interest Rates Under Falling Stars
American Economic Review 110(5), May 2020, 1316-1354 | Bauer and Rudebusch
Why Have Negative Nominal Interest Rates Had Such a Small Effect on Bank Performance? Cross Country Evidence
European Economic Review 124, May 2020 | Spiegel, Lopez and Rose
Administration above Administrators: The Changing Technology of Health Care Management
AEA Papers and Proceedings 110, May 2020, 274-78 | Shapiro
Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates
In Chapter 3 in Strategies for Monetary Policy, ed. by John Cochrane and John Taylor | Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution, May 2020. 103-172 | Mertens and Williams
Monetary Strategies in Practice
In Chapter 10 in Strategies for Monetary Policy: A Policy Conference, ed. by J. Cochrane and J. Taylor | Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, April 2020. 323-333 | Daly
A Century of the American Woman Voter: Sex Gaps in Political Participation, Preferences, and Partisanship Since Women’s Enfranchisement
Journal of Economic Perspectives 34(2), Spring 2020, 24-48 | Cascio and Shenhav
A Macroeconomic Model with Occasional Financial Crises
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 112, March 2020, 1-21 | Paul
Regulating Household Leverage
The Review of Economic Studies 87(2), March 2020, 914-958 | Mondragon, DeFusco and Johnson
Do Human Capital Decisions Respond to the Returns to Education? Evidence from DACA
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 12(1), February 2020, 293-324 | Kuka, Shenhav and Shih
Inflation Globally
In Chapter 7, Changing Inflation Dynamics, Evolving Monetary Policy (Volume 27), ed. by G. Castex, J. Gali and D. Saravia | Santiago: Central Bank of Chile, 2020. 269-316 | Jorda and Nechio
Home Currency Issuance in International Bond Markets
Journal of International Economics 122, January 2020 | Hale, Jones and Spiegel
The Weak Job Recovery in a Macro Model of Search and Recruiting Intensity
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 12(1), January 2020, 310-343 | Leduc and Liu
Greater Inequality and Household Borrowing: New Evidence from Household Data
Journal of European Economic Association, January 2020 | Coibion, Gorodnichenko, Kudlyak and Mondragon
Cyclical and Market Determinants of Involuntary Part-Time Employment
Journal of Labor Economics 38(1), January 2020, 67-93 | Valletta, Bengali and van der List
Labor Market Dynamics and Black-White Earnings Gaps
Economics Letters 186, January 2020 | Daly, Hobijn and Pedtke
2019
Clearing the Fog: The Predictive Power of Weather for Employment Reports and their Asset Price Responses
American Economic Review: Insights 1(3), December 2019, 373-388 | Wilson
A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt
The Review of Economics and Statistics 101(5), December 2019, 933-949 | Christensen and Rudebusch
Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 51(7), 2019, 1857-1887 | Foerster and Davig
Structural Stability of the Generalized Taylor Rule
Macroeconomic Dynamics 23(4), 2019, 1, 664-1, 678 | Duzhak and Barnett
Deleveraging and Consumer Credit Supply in the Wake of the 2008-09 Financial Crisis
International Journal of Central Banking 15(3), September 2019, 205-251 | Krainer, Laderman and Gropp
Monitoring Banking System Connectedness with Big Data
Journal of Econometrics 212(1), September 2019, 203-220 | Hale and Lopez
Term Structure Analysis with Big Data: One-Step Estimation Using Bond Prices
Journal of Econometrics 212(1), September 2019, 26-46 | Andreasen, Christensen and Rudebusch
Divest, Disregard, or Double Down? Philanthropic Endowment Investments in Objectionable Firms
American Economic Review: Insights 1(2), September 2019, 241-256 | Roth Tran
Shock Transmission through Cross-Border Bank Lending: Credit and Real Effects
Forthcoming in Review of Financial Studies | Hale, Kapan and Minoiu
Missing Growth from Creative Destruction
American Economic Review 109(8), August 2019, 2795-2822 | Aghion, Bergeaud, Boppart, Klenow and Li
The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Quarterly Journal of Economics 134(3), August 2019, 1225-1298 | Jorda, Knoll, Kuvshinov, Schularick and Taylor
How Segregated Is Urban Consumption?
Journal of Political Economy 127(4), August 2019, 1, 684-1, 738 | Davis, Dingel, Monras and Morales
Log-linear Approximation versus an Exact Solution at the ZLB in the New Keynesian Model
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 105, August 2019, 21-43 | Singh and Eggertsson
Aggregation Level in Stress Testing Models
Forthcoming in International Journal of Central Banking | Hale, Krainer and McCarthy
U.S. Monetary Policy and Fluctuations of International Bank Lending
Journal of International Money and Finance 95, July 2019, 251-268 | Avdjiev and Hale
Impulse Response Estimation by Smooth Local Projections
Review of Economics and Statistics 101(3), July 2019, 522-530 | Barnichon and Brownlees
The Intensity of Job Search and Search Duration
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11(3), July 2019, 327-357 | Kudlyak and Faberman
Minimum Wages and Spatial Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence
Journal of Labor Economics 37(3), July 2019, 853-904 | Monras
Reserve Requirements and Optimal Chinese Stabilization Policy
Journal of Monetary Economics 103, May 2019, 33-51 | Chang, Liu, Spiegel and Zhang
Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 109, May 2019, 427-432 | Mertens and Williams
A Reason to Wait: The Effect of Legal Status on Teen Pregnancy
American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings 109, May 2019, 213-217 | Kuka, Shenhav and Shih
Underemployment and the Trickle-Down of Unemployment
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11(2), April 2019, 40-78 | Barnichon and Zylberberg
Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most from a Strong Economy?
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2019, 333-375 | Aaronson, Daly, Wascher and Wilcox
Inflation Dynamics and Adaptive Expectations in an Estimated DSGE Model
Journal of Macroeconomics 59, 2019, 258-277 | Gelain, Lansing, Iskrev and Mendicino
Real Business Cycles, Animal Spirits, and Stock Market Valuation
International Journal of Economic Theory 15(1), March 2019, 77-94 | Lansing
Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums
IMF Economic Review 67(1), March 2019, 109-150 | Jorda, Schularick, Taylor and Ward
The Fed – The Green Dividend Dilemma: Carbon Dividends Versus Double Dividends
FEDS Notes, March 2019 | Fried, Novan and Peterman
Sentiments and U.S. Economic Activity: Evidence from States
Economic Journal 129(618), February 2019, 715-733 | Spiegel and Benhabib
Recent Flattening in the Higher Education Wage Premium: Polarization, Skill Downgrading, or Both?
In NBER-CRIW conference volume, “Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future U.S. GDP Growth”, ed. by Charles Hulten and Valerie Ramey | University of Chicago Press, 2019. 313-342 | Valletta
The Effect of Foreign Shocks on the Indian Economy
India Policy Forum 16(1), 2019, 1-54 | Singh and Lakdawala
Transmission of Quantitative Easing: The Role of Central Bank Reserves
Economic Journal 129, January 2019, 249-272 | Christensen and Krogstrup
The Effects of Government Spending on Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Military Spending Panel Data
Journal of International Economics 116, January 2019, 144-157 | Nguyen, Miyamoto and Sheremirov
2018
Does Medicare Part D Save Lives?
American Journal of Health Economics 5(1), Winter 2019, 126-164 | Shapiro and Dunn
Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Dollar: Conventional Signs, Unconventional Magnitudes
International Journal of Central Banking 14(5), December 2018, 103-152 | Glick and Leduc
Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse Engineering Approach
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 50(8), December 2018, 1751-82 | Gelain, Lansing and Natvik
Bank Linkages and International Trade
Journal of International Economics 115, November 2018, 30-47 | Caballero, Candelaria and Hale
Functional Approximations of Impulse Responses (FAIR)
Journal of Monetary Economics 99, November 2018, 41-55 | Barnichon and Matthes
Leaning Against the Credit Cycle
Journal of the European Economic Association 16(5), 2018, 1350-93 | Gelain, Lansing and Natvik
The Distributional Effects of a Carbon Tax on Current and Future Generations
Review of Economic Dynamics 30, October 2018, 30-46 | Fried, Novan and Peterman
The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output
Brookings Paper in Economic Activity 2018(Fall), Fall 2018, 343-411 | Coibion, Gorodnichenko and Ulate
Stuck in a Corner? Climate Policy in Developing Countries
Macroeconomic Dynamics 22(6), September 2018, 1535-1554 | Fried
Endogenous Disasters
American Economc Review 108(8), August 2018, 2212-2245 | Petrosky-Nadeau, Zhang and Kuehn
Government Spending Multipliers under Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 10(3), July 2018, 1-32 | Nguyen, Miyamoto and Sergeyev
Solving an Incomplete Markets Model with a Large Cross-Section of Agents
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 91, June 2018, 349-368 | Mertens and Judd
Financial Stability and the Resolution of Federal Reserve Goal and Implementation Conflicts
Journal of Financial Services Research 53, June 2018, 163-178 | Kwan, Eisenbeis and Wall
On the Demographic Adjustment of Unemployment
Review of Economics and Statistics 100(2), May 2018, 219-231 | Barnichon and Mesters
The Effects of Tax Changes at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan
American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings 108, May 2018, 513-518 | Nguyen, Kato, Miyamoto and Sergeyev
Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 36(2), 2018, 196-211 | Bauer
Breaking the “Iron Rice Bowl:” Evidence of Precautionary Savings from the Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Reform
Journal of Monetary Economics 94, 2018, 94-113 | He, Huang, Liu and Zhu
The Complexity of Billing and Paying for Physician Care
Health Affairs 37(4), 2018 | Dunn, Gottlieb and Shapiro
Sticker Shocks: Using VAT Changes to Estimate Upper-Level Elasticities of Substitution
Journal of the European Economic Association 17(3), April 2018, 799-833 | Hobijn and Nechio
Physician Competition and the Provision of Care: Evidence from Heart Attacks
American Journal of Health Economics 4(2), Spring 2018, 226-261 | Dunn and Shapiro
Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in a Leveraged Economy
Economic Journal 128(609), March 2018, 797-826 | Leduc and Natal
Disentangling Goods, Labor, and Credit Market Frictions in Three European Economies
Labour Economics 50, March 2018, 180-196 | Brzustowski, Petrosky-Nadeau and Wasmer
Bond Vigilantes and Inflation
International Journal of Central Banking 14(2), March 2018, 263-299 | Rose and Spiegel
Doubts and Variability: A Robust Perspective on Exotic Consumption Series
Journal of Economic Theory, March 2018 | Bidder and Smith
Top Incomes, Rising Inequality, and Welfare
Economic Journal 128, 2018, 262-297 | Lansing and Markiewicz
Decomposing Medical-Care Expenditure Growth
In Measuring and Modeling Health Care Costs, NBER Volume, ed. by Aizcorbe, Baker, Berndt, Cutler | University of Chicago, February 2018 | Shapiro, Dunn and Liebman
International Transmission of Japanese Monetary Shocks Under Low and Negative Interest Rates: A Global Factor-Augmented Vetor Autoregressive Approach
Pacific Economic Review 23(1), February 2018, 51-66 | Spiegel and Tai
Approximating Multisector New Keynesian Models
Economics Letters 163, 2018, 193-196 | Nechio and Carvalho
The Outlook for U.S. Labor Quality
In Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Economic Growth, NBER Studies in Income and Wealth, ed. by C. Hulten and V. Ramey | NBER/University of Chicago Press, 2018 | Bosler, Daly, Fernald and Hobijn
Climate Policy and Innovation: A Quantative Macroeconomic Analysis
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 10(1), January 2018, 90-118 | Fried
2017
Tax Competition among U.S. States: Racing to the Bottom or Riding on a Seesaw?
Journal of Public Economics 155, 2017, 147-163 | Chirinko and Wilson
Scraping By: Income and Program Participation After the Loss of Extended Unemployment Benefits
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 36(4), Fall 2017, 880-908 | Rothstein and Valletta
Business Cycles in Small Open Economies: Evidence from Panel Data between 1900 and 2013
International Economic Review 58(3), August 2017, 1007-1044 | Nguyen and Miyamoto
From Origination to Renegotiation: A Comparison of Portfolio and Securitized Commercial Real Estate Loans
Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 55(1), July 2017, 1-31 | Black, Krainer and Nichols
Solving the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides Model Accurately
Quantitative Economics 8(2), July 2017, 611-650 | Petrosky-Nadeau and Zhang
The Labor Market Consequences of Refugee Supply Shocks
Economic Policy 32(91), July 2017, 361-413 | Borjas and Monras
The Effect of State Taxes on the Geographical Location of Top Earners: Evidence from Star Scientists
American Economic Review 107(7), 2017, 1858-1903 | Moretti and Wilson
Measuring the Effects of Dollar Appreciation on Asia: A FAVAR Approach
Journal of International Money and Finance 74, June 2017, 353-370 | Liu, Spiegel and Tai
Currency Unions and Regional Trade Agreements: EMU and EU Effects of Trade
Comparative Economic Studies 59(2), June 2017, 194-209 | Glick
Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 36(3), May 2017, 371-387 | Angrist, Jorda and Kuersteiner
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants
Journal of International Economics 108, May 2017, S59-S75 | Williams, Holston and Laubach
Conditional PPP and Real Exchange Rate Convergence in the Euro Area
Journal of International Money and Finance 73, May 2017, 78-92 | Glick, Bergin and Wu
Composition and Aggregate Real Wage Growth
American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 107(5), May 2017, 349-352 | Daly and Hobijn
Understanding the Cross-Country Effects of U.S. Technology Shocks
Journal of International Economics 106, May 2017, 143-164 | Nguyen and Miyamoto
Are State Governments Roadblocks to Federal Stimulus? Evidence on the Flypaper Effect of Highway Grants in the 2009 Recovery Act
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 9(2), 2017, 253-292 | Leduc and Wilson
Guidelines for Measuring Disease Episodes: An Analysis of the Effects on the Components of Expenditure Growth
Health Services Research 52, April 2017, 720-740 | Shapiro, Dunn, Liebman and Rittmueller
The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment
American Economic Review 107(4), April 2017, 1059-1103 | Hassan and Mertens
Revisiting the Behavior of Small and Large Firms during the 2008 Financial Crisis
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 77(in progress), April 2017, 48-69 | Kudlyak and Sanchez
Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models
Review of Finance 21, 2017, 511-553 | Bauer and Rudebusch
Work, Health, and Insurance: A Shifting Landscape for Employers and Workers Alike
Health Affairs 36(2), 2017, 214-221 | Valletta and Buchmueller
Explaining Exchange Rate Anomalies in a Model with Taylor-Rule Fundamentals and Consistent Expectations
Journal of International Money and Finance 70, 2017, 62-87 | Lansing and Ma
2016
A Contagious Maladay? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation
IMF Economic Review 64(4), 2016, 581-634 | Eggertsson, Mehrotra, Singh and Summers
Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy
Journal of Monetary Economics 84, December 2016, 30-65 | Curdia and Woodford
Protecting Working-Age People with Disabilities: Experiences of Four Industrialized Nations
Journal for Labour Market Research 49(4), December 2016, 367–386 | Burkhauser, Daly and Ziebarth
Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index
Data update web page, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, November 2016 | Kudlyak, Hornstein and Lange
Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?
Annual Review of Economics 8, October 2016, 465-496 | Fernald and Wang
Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities
Review of Economic Dynamics 22, October 2016, 208-222 | Nechio and Carvalho
Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 48, 2016, 7 | Bauer and Rudebusch
Uncertainty Shocks Are Aggregate Demand Shocks
Journal of Monetary Economics 82, September 2016, 20-35 | Leduc and Liu
Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism
European Economic Review 88, September 2016, 208-226 | Carvalho, Ferrero and Nechio
Long-Run Risk Is the Worst-Case Scenario
American Economic Review 106 (9), September 2016, 2494-2527 | Bidder and Dew-Becker
Currency Unions and Trade: A Post-EMU Reassessment
European Economic Review 87, August 2016, 78-91 | Glick and Rose
Price Setting and Rapid Technology Adoption: The Case of the PC Industry
The Review of Economics and Statistics 98, July 2016, 601-616 | Copeland and Shapiro
Not So Disconnected: Exchange Rates and the Capital Stock
Journal of International Economics, July 2016 | Hassan, Mertens and Zhang
Financial Frictions, the Housing Market, and Unemployment
Journal of Economic Theory 164, July 2016, 101-135 | Branch, Petrosky-Nadeau and Rocheteau
Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models
Quantitative Economics 7(2), July 2016, 637-669 | Foerster, Rubio-Ramirez, Waggoner and Zha
Land Prices and Unemployment
Journal of Monetary Economics 80, June 2016, 86-105 | Liu, Miao and Zha
What Does Online Job Search Tell Us about the Labor Market?
FRB Chicago Economic Perspectives 40(1) , May 2016 | Kudlyak and Faberman
Forecasting Unemployment Across Countries: the Ins and Outs
European Economic Review 84, May 2016, 165-183 | Barnichon and Garda
What We Know About Real Wage Adjustment during the 2007-09 Recession and Its Aftermath
FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly 101(3), May 2016, 225-244 | Kudlyak
The Pre-Great Recession Slowdown in Productivity
European Economic Review 88(C), April 2016, 3-20 | Cette, Fernald and Mojon
On Variance Bounds for Asset Price Changes
Journal of Financial Markets 28, March 2016, 132-148 | Lansing
A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment
Journal of Macroeconomics 47A, March 2016, 5-18 | Rudebusch and Williams
The Euro and the Geography of International Debt Flows
Journal of the European Economic Association 14(1), February 2016, 115-144 | Hale and Obstfeld
The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy
Economic Journal 126(590), February 2016, 219-255 | Jorda and Taylor
Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences
Journal of the European Economic Association 14(1), February 2016, 45-79 | Jorda, Schularick and Taylor
Monetary Policy Regime Switches and Macroeconomic Dynamics
International Economic Review 57(1), February 2016, 211-230 | Foerster
Pricing Deflation Risk with U.S. Treasury Yields
Review of Finance 20, 2016, 1107-1152 | Christensen, Lopez and Rudebusch
Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?
In Dynamic Factor Models (Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 35), ed. by Eric Hillebrand and Siem Jan Koopman | Emerald Publishing Group, 2016. pp. 75-125 | Christensen and Rudebusch
The CARD Act and Young Borrowers: The Effects and the Affected
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 48(7), 2016, 1495-1513 | Kudlyak, Debbaut and Ghent
Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 30, 2016, 449-494 | Barnichon and Figura
2015
Leveraged Bubbles
Journal of Monetary Economics 76, December 2015, S1-S20 | Jorda, Schularick and Taylor
Financial Crises, Unconventional Monetary Policy Exit Strategies, and Agents’ Expectations
Journal of Monetary Economics 76, November 2015, 191-207 | Foerster
Asset Pricing with Concentrated Ownership of Capital and Distribution Shocks
American Economic Journal – Macroeconomics 7(4), October 2015, 67-103 | Lansing
Aging and the Economy: The Japanese Experience
The Regional Economist, October 2015, 12-13 | Kudlyak, Reed and Canon
Labor Market Heterogeneity and the Aggregate Matching Function
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 7 (4), October 2015, 222–249 | Barnichon and Figura
Do Extended Unemployment Benefits Lengthen Unemployment Spells? Evidence from Recent Cycles in the U.S. Labor Market
Journal of Human Resources 50(4), Fall 2015, 873-909 | Farber and Valletta
Capital Controls and Optimal Chinese Monetary Policy
Journal of Monetary Economics 74, September 2015, 1-15 | Chang, Liu and Spiegel
Optimal Monetary Policy and Capital Account Restrictions in a Small Open Economy
IMF Economic Review 63, September 2015, 298-324 | Liu and Spiegel
Persistence of Regional Wage Differences in China
Pacific Economic Review 20(3), August 2015, 365-387 | Candelaria, Daly and Hale
Numerical Policy Error Bounds for η -Concave Stochastic Dynamic Programming with Non-interior Solutions
Computational Economics 46, (Issue 2), August 2015, 171-187 | Li
Share of Imports and Commodities in Consumption and Investment in the United States
In Uncovering Value Added in Trade Ch.6, ed. by Y.Xing | World Scientific, August 2015. 101-112 | Hale and Hobijn
What We Know About Wage Adjustment during the 2007-09 Recession and Its Aftermath
FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly 101(3), Q3 2015, 225-244 | Kudlyak
Betting the House
Journal of International Economics 96(S1), July 2015, S2-S18 | Jorda, Schularick and Taylor
Bayesian Mixed Frequency VARs
Journal of Financial Econometrics 13(3), Summer 2015, 698-721 | Foerster, Eraker, Chiu, Kim and Seoane
Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession
In NBER Macroeconomics Annual, ed. by Parker, Woodford, June 2015. 1-51 | Fernald
Temptation and Self-Control: Some Evidence and Applications
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 47(4), June 2015, 581-615 | Huang, Liu and Zhu
Implications of Utilization Shifts on Medical-Care Price Measurement
Health Economics 24(5), May 2015, 539-557 | Shapiro, Dunn and Liebman
Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Model of Goods, Labor and Credit Market Frictions
Journal of Monetary Economics 72, May 2015, 97-113 | Petrosky-Nadeau and Wasmer
The Effect of Extended Unemployment Insurance Benefits: Evidence from the 2012-2013 Phase-Out
American Economic Review 105(5), May 2015, 171-176 | Farber, Rothstein and Valletta
Financial Crises and the Composition of Cross-Border Lending
Journal of International Money and Finance 52, April 2015, 60-81 | Hale, Cerutti and Minoiu
Discussion of Notarpietro and Siviero
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 47 (S1), April 2015, 411-417 | Liu
Nominal Interest Rates and the News
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 47 (2-3), 2015, 295-331 | Bauer
Inflation Expectations and the News
International Journal of Central Banking 11 (2), 2015, 1-40 | Bauer
Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields
Journal of Financial Econometrics 13 (2), Spring 2015, 226-259 | Christensen and Rudebusch
Discussion of: “Explaining House Price Dynamics: Isolating the Role of Non-Fundamentals”
Journal of Money Credit and Banking 2015, v. 47(S1), March 2015, 127-132 | Lansing
Basel III: Long-Term Impact on Economic Performance and Fluctuations
The Manchester School 83(2), 2015, 217-251 | Curdia, Angelini, Clerc, Gambacorta, Gerali, Locarno, Motto, Roeger, Van den Heuvel and Vlcek
Has U.S. Monetary Policy Tracked the Efficient Interest Rate?
Journal of Monetary Economics 70, 2015, 72-83 | Curdia, Ferrero, Ng and Tambalotti
A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income
Journal of Monetary Economics 73, 2015, 26-43 | Christensen, Lopez and Rudebusch
Information Aggregation in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model
In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014 29, ed. by Parker and Woodford | National Bureau of Economic Research, 2015. 159-207 | Mertens and Hassan
Physician Payments Under Health Care Reform
Journal of Health Economics 39, January 2015, 89-105 | Dunn and Shapiro