What changes are in store for the workplace in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? Business leaders from across our District’s nine western states plan to prioritize worker needs and safety when deciding how to move forward, according to our New Future of Work survey.
How do gender and racial inequities affect the economy? The “Unlocking Our Potential” essay contest invites doctoral students to share their insights and analysis for a chance to win an internship and cash prize.
As the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the economy last spring, inflation fell dramatically. One year later, the opposite is occurring with inflation surpassing 3%. Health care and used cars are the main drivers for the recent spike in prices and their increases are expected to be short-lived.
COVID-19 disrupted all aspects of life, leading to steep declines in labor force participation across genders, races, and ethnic groups. Mothers experienced sharper and longer-lasting declines than fathers, and participation rates for Black mothers and Hispanic mothers were among the most affected.
An article by SF Fed economists Zheng Liu and Mark Spiegel, along with coauthors Chun Chang and Jingyi Zhang, made the list of being among the most frequently cited since 2018 for the Journal of Monetary Economics. The article, “Reserve Requirements and Optimal Chinese Stabilization Policy” is one of the top 25 JME articles ranked by number of citations.
The Federal Open Market Committee noted in its March 2021 statement that, although indicators show an improvement in economic activity and employment, the hardest hit sectors remain weakened by the pandemic. What does the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates low mean for you? Let’s rewind and learn more in the SF Fed Blog.
The Economist article, “How COVID-19 Triggered America’s First Female Recession in over 50 Years” highlighted SF Fed research by Olivia Lofton, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, and Lily Seitelman, from their working paper, “Parents in a Pandemic Labor Market.”
The article notes that recent lower labor market participation among women reflects both differences in parental responsibilities during the pandemic and large job losses in female-dominated sectors.
The latest supplement of the Journal of Monetary Economics recently published four articles from SF Fed staff economists in its massive 1,118-page issue. Check out these articles and other related research by our featured economists.
“Endogenous Forecast Switching Near the Zero Lower Bound” by Kevin J. Lansing, pp. 153-169.
“Unemployment Crises” by Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Lu Zhang, pp. 335-353.
“The Phillips Multiplier” by Regis Barnichon and Geert Mesters, pp. 689-705.
“Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China” by Zheng Liu, Mark M. Spiegel, and Jingyi Zhang, pp. 1,041-1,061.
Two San Francisco economists were among the top young economists as of January 2021, according to IDEAS rankings. Mauricio Ulate, who joined the Economic Research Department in 2019, ranked 6th, and Pascal Paul, who joined in 2016, ranked 15th in the list.
The top young economist rankings acknowledge the most prolific authors from a pool of over 4,700 economists who were first published within the past five years. IDEAS is the largest bibliographic database dedicated to economics and available freely on the Internet. Based on RePEc, it indexes over 3,300,000 items of research, including over 3,100,000 that can be downloaded in full text.
Our Center for Pacific Basin Studies will host “Macroeconomic Policy and Global Economic Recovery” on November 19, 2021, as part of the Asia Economic Policy Conference series. Richard H. Clarida, Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, is scheduled to be the keynote speaker. Researchers can submit papers for consideration by March 1, 2021. Read our Call for Papers for more details.
The U.S. 2020 fire season has been intense so far, especially in California and Oregon. Assessing the spread of wildfires through mid-November shows it is comparable to the two most damaging fire seasons in recent memory. However, learning the cost of actual damages will take time.
Read SF Fed Blog by Luiz E. Oliveira for more on the 2020 U.S. wildfire season, as well as our earlier FRBSF Economic Letter, Rising Wildfire Risk for the 12th District Economy.
While China’s economy plunged following the outbreak of COVID-19, official data report that it has rebounded sharply. The San Francisco Fed’s China Cyclical Activity Tracker—or China CAT—confirms this, indicating modestly higher activity than China’s official data for the second quarter of 2020.
Learn more about China’s economic growth through quarterly updates to the China CAT data page.
The Research Department has launched a new way to help people understand the policy statements released after each Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The first videos include a chat about what goes into policy discussions and another about the July 2020 FOMC decision.
Check out the San Francisco Fed’s #FOMCrewind on Twitter, and read more about it in the SF Fed Blog.
The Daily News Sentiment Index can be used to assess how sentiment responded to the COVID-19 crisis compared to the 2008 financial crisis. News sentiment declined at a similar pace and scale during both crises but recovered more quickly in the financial crisis. Read more on SF Fed Blog by Shelby Buckman, Adam Shapiro, and Dan Wilson.
The chart tells the story: “Jobless Rate Soars to 14.7%, Worst Level since Great Depression.”
The front-page story in the Washington Post’s May 8 issue features a graphic from research by Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, FRB San Francisco, and coauthor Lu Zhang in their paper, “Unemployment Crises.” The Post notes that the authors analyze historical sources to estimate monthly unemployment rates back to 1890, about 70 years before the beginning of monthly observations from the Labor Department.
The article is forthcoming in the Journal of Monetary Economics.
The Daily News Sentiment Index is available on the San Francisco Fed’s Research website. Featuring research by Adam Shapiro, Moritz Sudhof, and Dan Wilson, the index shows how economic sentiment has changed during the current pandemic and offers downloadable data back to 1980.
News sentiment data will be updated each week to show the past week’s daily sentiment numbers. Check the most recent update in our Indicators and Data section.
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco had hoped to host its Annual Conference on Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy on Friday, March 27, 2020. The conference brings together academic and central bank economists, financial market practitioners, and policymakers. Papers focus on macroeconomics broadly defined. Out of an abundance of caution due to the COVID-19 virus, this year’s conference has been canceled, but we are sharing the participant list and papers, which we hope will be of interest. Read more
Distinguishing between items that change price with economic growth and those that are unaffected is one way to learn more about inflation. An update to the SF Fed’s Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation measure uses a new method to improve such inflation data. Read more
“Opinion: This thorough study says which investments have done best since 1870”
By Howard Gold, MarketWatch, November 21.
Summarizing recent research by Òscar Jordà et al. in Quarterly Journal of Economics 34(3, August), Gold asks, “How well do the assets that people own perform over decades? The most recent effort to measure that … is titled “The Rate of Return on Everything: 1870-2015.” It tracks the total return of stocks, housing, Treasury bills and government bonds for 16 countries over that time and may be the most comprehensive data set on asset returns ever assembled.”
Based on FRB San Francisco Working Paper 2017-25
The paper “Interest Rates Under Falling Stars” by San Francisco Fed economists Glenn D. Rudebusch and Michael Bauer has been accepted for publication in the American Economic Review. This paper bridges the gap between macroeconomic and finance views of long-run trends. See more research by Glenn D. Rudebusch and by Michael Bauer.
Is the global economy showing signs of growth or catastrophy? How can we mitigate the damage that automation may do to the workforce? How can economics be more accessible to the public? Why does the San Francisco Fed exist? Sylvain Leduc and Andrew Foerster answered these and other questions posed by the public during a recent Quora session.
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco will host its annual conference on macroeconomics and monetary policy on Friday, March 27, 2020.
We invite researchers to submit working papers by Friday, October 18. We prefer topics in the area of macroeconomics broadly defined that are relevant for monetary policy, which may involve related fields such as finance, labor economics, international economics, applied microeconomics, and public finance.
Read our Call for Papers for more information
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is pleased to announce its membership in the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), one of the largest global research networks in the field of economics. Read more
The Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is looking to hire an experienced or new Ph.D. economist in the areas of Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, Microeconomics, Labor Economics, International Economics, or Financial Economics. For all candidates, solid research achievement and potential are essential. All economists are expected to publish in top academic journals and be able to prepare high-level analysis for Bank policy briefings and publications. Excellent communication skills are required.
The Department provides an outstanding research environment and has a proven track record of producing highly cited work. Salary and benefits are competitive.
The application deadline is November 27, 2019. The Department plans to interview candidates at the ASSA Meetings in San Diego in January 2020. Apply now
The San Francisco Fed will host the conference “The Economics of Climate Change” (pdf, 104 kb) on November 8. Presentations will focus on new research examining the economic and financial implications of climate change.
This conference will bring together researchers from around the globe to discuss topics such as quantifying the climate risk faced by households, firms, and the financial system; measuring the economic costs and consequences of climate change; accounting for the effects of climate change on financial asset prices; and understanding the potential implications of climate change for monetary, supervisory, and trade policy.
Frank Elderson, member of the Governing Board of the Netherlands Central Bank and chair of the Network for Greening the Financial System, will deliver keynote remarks.
Conference attendance is by invitation only. Presentations will be livestreamed on the conference page.
Research by three San Francisco Fed economists made the most cited list for the Journal of Monetary Economics among articles published since 2016:
“Uncertainty Shocks Are Aggregate Demand Shocks” by Sylvain Leduc and Zheng Liu
“Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy” by Vasco Cúrdia and Michael Woodford
“Land Prices and Unemployment” by Zheng Liu, Jianjun Miao, and Tao Zha
Published in August 2019 American Economic Review, by San Francisco Fed’s Huiyu Li with coauthors Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, and Peter J. Klenow. See more research by Huiyu Li.
Congratulations to Fernanda Nechio for being appointed as Deputy Governor on the Central Bank of Brazil’s monetary policy committee! In her new office, Nechio will also oversee International Affairs and Corporate Risk Management. Read more
The American Economic Association named Emi Nakamura the best young American economist for 2019. This John Bates Clark medalist contributes to the San Francisco Fed through her work as a visiting scholar in Economic Research. Photo provided by UC Berkeley. Read more
The economy is close to the Federal Reserve’s employment and inflation goals, so now is a good time to consider how to keep it running smoothly in the future. This is the focus of the 2019 Fed Listens program, including a San Francisco Fed event on September 26 to discuss managing a hot economy. Read more