Research Spotlight

Watch FOMC Rewind: What the Fed’s June 2022 Policy Decision Means for You

Friday, June 24, 2022

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the target range for its short-term policy rate, the federal funds rate, 0.75 percentage points at its June meeting. In its post-meeting statement, the FOMC reiterated that inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

What does the Fed’s policy decision mean for you? Let’s rewind and learn more in the SF Fed Blog.

Watch FOMC Rewind: What the Fed’s May 2022 Decision Means for You

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

The Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for its short-term policy rate, the federal funds rate, by half a percentage point. The Committee noted in its May 2022 statement that inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

What does the Fed’s decision mean for you? Let’s rewind and learn more in the SF Fed Blog.

Valletta Featured in Minneapolis Fed Scholar Spotlight

Friday, April 22, 2022

The Minneapolis Fed recently featured a Scholar Spotlight on Rob Valletta, San Francisco Fed’s associate director of research in its Spring 2022 issue of For All, the magazine of the Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute.

The article highlights Valletta’s research on labor market policies such as unemployment insurance and their relationship to the Fed’s maximum employment goal. Valletta serves on the board of Fed System colleagues who help shape the Institute’s research and conference agendas.

Watch: Will Rising Rents Push Up Future Inflation?

Thursday, March 31, 2022

Rising rents account for a significant portion of recent inflation. Estimates of how rent inflation typically responds to two leading indicators—current asking rents and current house prices—can help forecast the path of overall inflation for the next two years.

For more, watch the SF Fed Blog video by Kevin J. Lansing, Luiz E. Oliveira, and Adam Hale Shapiro, as well as read our FRBSF Economic Letter, “Will Rising Rents Push Up Future Inflation?

Understanding Climate Risk: What We Learned from Businesses

Friday, March 25, 2022

To better understand how businesses are responding to a changing climate, the San Francisco Fed launched its first business survey within the District focused on climate risk. Overall, respondents agreed that continued sustainability gains will require a long-term commitment to learning about climate risk, putting formal mitigation strategies in place, and assessing the results.

For more on the survey results, read SF Fed Blog by Hishgee Jargalsaikhan, Sylvain Leduc, and Luiz Oliveira, as well as our FRBSF Economic Letter, How Are Businesses Responding to Climate Risk?

Planet Money’s December Beigie Award Goes to…SF Fed

Tuesday, January 4, 2022

Luiz Oliveira accepted NPR Planet Money’s December Beigie award on behalf of the SF Fed for the 12th District’s December 2021 Beige Book. The Beige Book includes anecdotal reports of businesses and community leaders throughout the country. This is the first time that the SF Fed has received this informal award.

SF Fed’s Beige Book team includes Luiz Oliveira, Hishgee Jargalsaikhan, Evgeniya Duzhak, Adam Shapiro, and Karen Barnes.

Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Annual Conference: Call for Papers

Wednesday, October 6, 2021

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco will host its annual conference on macroeconomics and monetary policy on Friday, March 25, 2022.

We invite researchers to submit working papers by Friday, October 22, 2021. We are interested in a wide set of fields that help inform an understanding and the achievement of the dual goals of price stability and full employment that is broad and inclusive. This includes related fields of macroeconomics, finance, labor economics, international economics, applied microeconomics, public finance, climate economics, and others.

Read our Call for Papers (pdf, 101 kb) for more information.

We are currently planning for a virtual 2022 conference but are preparing for the possibility of an in-person event should the situation permit.

Interview Looks Back at First Year of Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics

Friday, August 27, 2021

For more than a year, the San Francisco Fed has run its Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics to help economists estimate, model, and propose policies to mitigate climate risk. In an interview with the Center for Economic Policy Research’s Tim Phillips, senior policy advisor Glenn Rudebusch of the San Francisco Fed discusses how the seminars are bringing fresh interdisciplinary research to a wider audience.

Watch the video interview on the VoxEU/CEPR website.

What’s Behind the Recent Rise in Core Inflation?

Tuesday, June 22, 2021

As the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the economy last spring, inflation fell dramatically. One year later, the opposite is occurring with inflation surpassing 3%. Health care and used cars are the main drivers for the recent spike in prices and their increases are expected to be short-lived.

Read more in the SF Fed Blog by Adam Hale Shapiro, and check out some underlying research on our Inflation Sensitivity to COVID-19 data page.

Mothers in a Pandemic Labor Market

Thursday, May 6, 2021

COVID-19 disrupted all aspects of life, leading to steep declines in labor force participation across genders, races, and ethnic groups. Mothers experienced sharper and longer-lasting declines than fathers, and participation rates for Black mothers and Hispanic mothers were among the most affected.

Learn more in the SF Fed Blog by Olivia Lofton, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, and Lily Seitelman.

How COVID-19 Triggered a “She-cession”: SF Fed Research Featured in The Economist

Friday, March 19, 2021

The Economist article, “How COVID-19 Triggered America’s First Female Recession in over 50 Years” highlighted SF Fed research by Olivia Lofton, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, and Lily Seitelman, from their working paper, “Parents in a Pandemic Labor Market.”

The article notes that recent lower labor market participation among women reflects both differences in parental responsibilities during the pandemic and large job losses in female-dominated sectors.

Work of Five SF Fed Economists Featured in Recent JME

Monday, February 22, 2021

The latest supplement of the Journal of Monetary Economics recently published four articles from SF Fed staff economists in its massive 1,118-page issue. Check out these articles and other related research by our featured economists.

Endogenous Forecast Switching Near the Zero Lower Bound” by Kevin J. Lansing, pp. 153-169.
Unemployment Crises” by Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Lu Zhang, pp. 335-353.
The Phillips Multiplier” by Regis Barnichon and Geert Mesters, pp. 689-705.
Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China” by Zheng Liu, Mark M. Spiegel, and Jingyi Zhang, pp. 1,041-1,061.

Two SF Fed Staff Make List of Top Young Economists

Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Two San Francisco economists were among the top young economists as of January 2021, according to IDEAS rankings. Mauricio Ulate, who joined the Economic Research Department in 2019, ranked 6th, and Pascal Paul, who joined in 2016, ranked 15th in the list.

The top young economist rankings acknowledge the most prolific authors from a pool of over 4,700 economists who were first published within the past five years. IDEAS is the largest bibliographic database dedicated to economics and available freely on the Internet. Based on RePEc, it indexes over 3,300,000 items of research, including over 3,100,000 that can be downloaded in full text.

2021 Asia Economic Policy Conference: Call for Papers

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Our Center for Pacific Basin Studies will host “Macroeconomic Policy and Global Economic Recovery” on November 19, 2021, as part of the Asia Economic Policy Conference series. Richard H. Clarida, Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, is scheduled to be the keynote speaker. Researchers can submit papers for consideration by March 1, 2021. Read our Call for Papers for more details.

How Bad Is the U.S. 2020 Fire Season?

Wednesday, December 2, 2020

The U.S. 2020 fire season has been intense so far, especially in California and Oregon. Assessing the spread of wildfires through mid-November shows it is comparable to the two most damaging fire seasons in recent memory. However, learning the cost of actual damages will take time.

Read SF Fed Blog by Luiz E. Oliveira for more on the 2020 U.S. wildfire season, as well as our earlier FRBSF Economic Letter, Rising Wildfire Risk for the 12th District Economy.

Assessing the Accuracy of China’s Economic Rebound from COVID-19

Friday, October 2, 2020

While China’s economy plunged following the outbreak of COVID-19, official data report that it has rebounded sharply. The San Francisco Fed’s China Cyclical Activity Tracker—or China CAT—confirms this, indicating modestly higher activity than China’s official data for the second quarter of 2020.

Learn more about China’s economic growth through quarterly updates to the China CAT data page.

Watch FOMC Rewind: What the Fed’s July 2020 Decision Means for You

Wednesday, August 5, 2020

The Research Department has launched a new way to help people understand the policy statements released after each Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The first videos include a chat about what goes into policy discussions and another about the July 2020 FOMC decision.

Check out the San Francisco Fed’s #FOMCrewind on Twitter, and read more about it in the SF Fed Blog.

In the Headlines: Petrosky-Nadeau Research Hits Washington Post Front Page

Friday, May 8, 2020

The chart tells the story: “Jobless Rate Soars to 14.7%, Worst Level since Great Depression.”

The front-page story in the Washington Post’s May 8 issue features a graphic from research by Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, FRB San Francisco, and coauthor Lu Zhang in their paper, “Unemployment Crises.” The Post notes that the authors analyze historical sources to estimate monthly unemployment rates back to 1890, about 70 years before the beginning of monthly observations from the Labor Department.

The article is forthcoming in the Journal of Monetary Economics.

Keeping an Eye on Daily News Sentiment

Tuesday, April 14, 2020

The Daily News Sentiment Index is available on the San Francisco Fed’s Research website. Featuring research by Adam Shapiro, Moritz Sudhof, and Dan Wilson, the index shows how economic sentiment has changed during the current pandemic and offers downloadable data back to 1980.

News sentiment data will be updated each week to show the past week’s daily sentiment numbers. Check the most recent update in our Indicators and Data section.

2020 Annual Conference on Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy – Canceled

Friday, March 6, 2020

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco had hoped to host its Annual Conference on Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy on Friday, March 27, 2020. The conference brings together academic and central bank economists, financial market practitioners, and policymakers. Papers focus on macroeconomics broadly defined. Out of an abundance of caution due to the COVID-19 virus, this year’s conference has been canceled, but we are sharing the participant list and papers, which we hope will be of interest. Read more

The Finer Points of Cyclical and Acyclical Inflation

Friday, February 14, 2020

Distinguishing between items that change price with economic growth and those that are unaffected is one way to learn more about inflation. An update to the SF Fed’s Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation measure uses a new method to improve such inflation data. Read more

In the Headlines: Jorda Research Featured in MarketWatch

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

“Opinion: This thorough study says which investments have done best since 1870”
By Howard Gold, MarketWatch, November 21.

Summarizing recent research by Òscar Jordà et al. in Quarterly Journal of Economics 34(3, August), Gold asks, “How well do the assets that people own perform over decades? The most recent effort to measure that … is titled “The Rate of Return on Everything: 1870-2015.” It tracks the total return of stocks, housing, Treasury bills and government bonds for 16 countries over that time and may be the most comprehensive data set on asset returns ever assembled.”

Based on FRB San Francisco Working Paper 2017-25

Quora Session Features Answers on Automation, Inflation, and More

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Is the global economy showing signs of growth or catastrophy? How can we mitigate the damage that automation may do to the workforce? How can economics be more accessible to the public? Why does the San Francisco Fed exist? Sylvain Leduc and Andrew Foerster answered these and other questions posed by the public during a recent Quora session.

Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference: Call for Papers

Thursday, October 3, 2019

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco will host its annual conference on macroeconomics and monetary policy on Friday, March 27, 2020.

We invite researchers to submit working papers by Friday, October 18. We prefer topics in the area of macroeconomics broadly defined that are relevant for monetary policy, which may involve related fields such as finance, labor economics, international economics, applied microeconomics, and public finance.

Read our Call for Papers for more information

Come Work with Us: Opening for Research Economist

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

The Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is looking to hire an experienced or new Ph.D. economist in the areas of Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, Microeconomics, Labor Economics, International Economics, or Financial Economics. For all candidates, solid research achievement and potential are essential. All economists are expected to publish in top academic journals and be able to prepare high-level analysis for Bank policy briefings and publications. Excellent communication skills are required.

The Department provides an outstanding research environment and has a proven track record of producing highly cited work. Salary and benefits are competitive.

The application deadline is November 27, 2019. The Department plans to interview candidates at the ASSA Meetings in San Diego in January 2020. Apply now

“The Economics of Climate Change” conference set for November 8

Friday, September 6, 2019

The San Francisco Fed will host the conference “The Economics of Climate Change” (pdf, 104 kb) on November 8. Presentations will focus on new research examining the economic and financial implications of climate change.

This conference will bring together researchers from around the globe to discuss topics such as quantifying the climate risk faced by households, firms, and the financial system; measuring the economic costs and consequences of climate change; accounting for the effects of climate change on financial asset prices; and understanding the potential implications of climate change for monetary, supervisory, and trade policy.

Frank Elderson, member of the Governing Board of the Netherlands Central Bank and chair of the Network for Greening the Financial System, will deliver keynote remarks.

Conference attendance is by invitation only. Presentations will be livestreamed on the conference page.

SF Fed Visiting Scholar Nakamura Named 2019 Clark Medalist

Monday, May 20, 2019

The American Economic Association named Emi Nakamura the best young American economist for 2019. This John Bates Clark medalist contributes to the San Francisco Fed through her work as a visiting scholar in Economic Research. Photo provided by UC Berkeley. Read more