Research Spotlight
Monras Wins Award for Best Spanish Economist under 40
Joan Monras, Research Advisor at the SF Fed and Professor of Economics at the Pompeu Fabra University, has been awarded the 22nd Banco Sabadell Foundation Award for Economic Research for his innovative research in the field of immigration.
Monras’s research focuses on the fields of labor economics, urban economics, and international trade. His articles examine the effect of immigration on the labor market and how local economies adjust to economic shocks and policy changes. He has also studied how immigration and racial disparities affect the geographical distribution of economic activity.
Excess No More? Dwindling Pandemic Savings
U.S. household savings rose and fell at unprecedented rates since the onset of the pandemic recession. Updated estimates suggest that only a small fraction of accumulated excess savings remains in the aggregate economy and that those funds are likely to be depleted during the third quarter of 2023.
Liu Discusses Research on Link between Automation and Superstar Firms
Zheng Liu, vice president and Director of our Center for Pacific Basin Studies, sat down recently with Faculti to talk about his working paper with coauthors Hamid Firooz and Yajie Wang, “Automation and the Rise of Superstar Firms.”
In the Faculti interview, Liu explains the empirical link between automation technology and industry concentration over the past two decades, using a general equilibrium framework with heterogeneous firms and variable markups.
Second Annual Workshop on Macroeconomic Implications of Migration: Call for Papers
The Bank of Canada, the Global Migration Center at the University of California, Davis, the Economics Department at ITAM, and the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco would like to invite you to submit a paper to the second edition of the workshop on the Macroeconomic Implications of Migration that will take place at the SF Fed on August 25, 2023.
We invite researchers to submit working papers by Friday, April 15, 2023. Read our Call for Papers for more information.
Behind the Scenes: Building the SF Fed Data Explorer
Last September, the Economic Research department launched the SF Fed Data Explorer, an interactive tool that allows you to explore and download data for various groups of people in the U.S. labor market.
In a recent #unreserved feature, Research Associate Erin Crust shares the story behind the development of the Data Explorer.
February 28 Deadline Nears for “Unlocking Our Potential” Research Scholar Program
The SF Fed’s Economic Research Department invites graduate students to apply to the 2023 “Unlocking Our Potential” Research Scholar program by February 28, 2023.
To apply, please submit a research-based essay analyzing various aspects of gender and racial inequities, their underlying causes, and their economic consequences. Students whose essays are selected will earn the opportunity to spend six weeks working with us as summer Research Scholars.
Join Us for Ask the SF Fed: Inflation and the Economy
Join us on Tuesday, February 7 at 10:30 am PT, for a live discussion on Inflation and the Economy with Research Director Sylvain Leduc.
Sylvain will cover the drivers of high inflation, current labor market dynamics, and the Fed’s efforts to restore price stability, and answer pre-submitted questions from the public. Register and submit questions through our event page.
2023 Asia Economic Policy Conference: Call for Papers
Our Center for Pacific Basin Studies will host its 2023 Asia Economic Policy Conference on November 16-17, 2023, at the San Francisco Fed. Researchers can submit papers for consideration by March 31, 2023. Read our Call for Papers for more details.
Submit Essays for the 2023 “Unlocking Our Potential” Research Scholar Program
The SF Fed’s Economic Research Department invites graduate students to apply to the 2023 “Unlocking Our Potential” Research Scholar program by February 28, 2023.
To apply, please submit a research-based essay analyzing various aspects of gender and racial inequities, their underlying causes, and their economic consequences. Students whose essays are selected will earn the opportunity to spend six weeks working with us as summer Research Scholars.
Watch FOMC Rewind: What the Fed’s November 2022 Policy Decision Means for You
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the target range for its short-term policy rate, the federal funds rate, 0.75 percentage points at its November meeting. In its meeting statement, the FOMC said it anticipates ongoing increases in the target range to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2% over time.
What does the Fed’s policy decision mean for you? Let’s rewind and learn more in the SF Fed Blog.
2022 Pacific Basin Research Conference
Our Center for Pacific Basin Studies hosts its 2022 Pacific Basin Research Conference on Friday, November 18, 2022, at the San Francisco Fed. See the agenda for more details.
How Is Inflation Affecting Our Paychecks?
Our latest tutorial video for the SF Fed Data Explorer shows how to assess the impact of consumer price index inflation on your paycheck by comparing nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) earnings.
To explore this topic in more depth, plug Chart Code 31p09720991g097231000000000000 into the Data Explorer tool.
Watch FOMC Rewind: What the Fed’s September 2022 Policy Decision Means for You
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the target range for its short-term policy rate, the federal funds rate, 0.75 percentage points at its September meeting. In its meeting statement, the FOMC reiterated that inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.
What does the Fed’s policy decision mean for you? Let’s rewind and learn more in the SF Fed Blog.
Charting New Stories with SF Fed Data Explorer
Digging beyond the headline data can give a fresh perspective on how the economy is affecting different groups. Our new SF Fed Data Explorer provides an interactive charting tool to learn more about the U.S. labor market.
Community Conditions: A New Section in the SF Fed’s Beige Book Report
A new section, titled “Community Conditions,” is being introduced as part of the August 2022 Beige Book report, which was published on September 7, 2022. The new “Community Conditions” section will be a regular feature of the SF Fed’s Beige Book report going forward.
This new section will cover a variety of topics, such as recent economic developments in lower-income areas, workforce education and training activities, usage of nonprofit services, challenges and opportunities for small businesses, and related issues affecting the diverse communities in our District. Learn more in the SF Fed Blog.
Watch FOMC Rewind: What the Fed’s July 2022 Policy Decision Means for You
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the target range for its short-term policy rate, the federal funds rate, 0.75 percentage points at its July meeting. In its post-meeting statement, the FOMC reiterated that inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.
What does the Fed’s policy decision mean for you? Let’s rewind and learn more in the SF Fed Blog.
2022 Pacific Basin Research Conference: Call for Papers
Our Center for Pacific Basin Studies will host its 2022 Pacific Basin Research Conference on November 18, 2022, at the San Francisco Fed. Researchers can submit papers for consideration by August 15, 2022. Read our Call for Papers for more details.
Watch FOMC Rewind: What the Fed’s June 2022 Policy Decision Means for You
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the target range for its short-term policy rate, the federal funds rate, 0.75 percentage points at its June meeting. In its post-meeting statement, the FOMC reiterated that inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.
What does the Fed’s policy decision mean for you? Let’s rewind and learn more in the SF Fed Blog.
Watch FOMC Rewind Live, May 2022 – Insights on Fed Policy Announcements
How is the Federal Reserve working to bring inflation back down? Research Director Sylvain Leduc discusses the Fed’s recent policy decision in our May 2022 FOMC Rewind Live video.
Watch FOMC Rewind: What the Fed’s May 2022 Decision Means for You
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for its short-term policy rate, the federal funds rate, by half a percentage point. The Committee noted in its May 2022 statement that inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.
What does the Fed’s decision mean for you? Let’s rewind and learn more in the SF Fed Blog.
SF Fed Visiting Scholar named 2022 Clark Medalist
The American Economic Association named Oleg Itskhoki the best young American economist for 2022. This John Bates Clark medalist contributes to the San Francisco Fed through his work as a visiting scholar in Economic Research. For more, read the SF Fed Blog.
Valletta Featured in Minneapolis Fed Scholar Spotlight
The Minneapolis Fed recently featured a Scholar Spotlight on Rob Valletta, San Francisco Fed’s associate director of research in its Spring 2022 issue of For All, the magazine of the Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute.
The article highlights Valletta’s research on labor market policies such as unemployment insurance and their relationship to the Fed’s maximum employment goal. Valletta serves on the board of Fed System colleagues who help shape the Institute’s research and conference agendas.
Watch FOMC Rewind Live—Conversations Breaking Down Fed Policy Announcements
Inspired by our FOMC Rewind explainer videos, we are introducing a new series called FOMC Rewind Live. These occasional videos will break down some of the issues the FOMC discussed at their last meeting.
Hosted by Research Director Sylvain Leduc, the series provides context for the FOMC announcements while exploring the tradeoffs and challenges monetary policymakers are facing.
Watch: Will Rising Rents Push Up Future Inflation?
Rising rents account for a significant portion of recent inflation. Estimates of how rent inflation typically responds to two leading indicators—current asking rents and current house prices—can help forecast the path of overall inflation for the next two years.
For more, watch the SF Fed Blog video by Kevin J. Lansing, Luiz E. Oliveira, and Adam Hale Shapiro, as well as read our FRBSF Economic Letter, “Will Rising Rents Push Up Future Inflation?”
Understanding Climate Risk: What We Learned from Businesses
To better understand how businesses are responding to a changing climate, the San Francisco Fed launched its first business survey within the District focused on climate risk. Overall, respondents agreed that continued sustainability gains will require a long-term commitment to learning about climate risk, putting formal mitigation strategies in place, and assessing the results.
For more on the survey results, read SF Fed Blog by Hishgee Jargalsaikhan, Sylvain Leduc, and Luiz Oliveira, as well as our FRBSF Economic Letter, How Are Businesses Responding to Climate Risk?
Apply for Unlocking Our Potential Essay Contest by February 15
How do gender and racial inequities affect the economy? The “Unlocking Our Potential” essay contest invites graduate students to share their insights and analysis for a chance to win an internship and cash prize.
We are accepting contest entries through February 15. See the essay contest details in our SF Fed Blog or view the pdf version (130 kb).
Planet Money’s December Beigie Award Goes to…SF Fed
Luiz Oliveira accepted NPR Planet Money’s December Beigie award on behalf of the SF Fed for the 12th District’s December 2021 Beige Book. The Beige Book includes anecdotal reports of businesses and community leaders throughout the country. This is the first time that the SF Fed has received this informal award.
SF Fed’s Beige Book team includes Luiz Oliveira, Hishgee Jargalsaikhan, Evgeniya Duzhak, Adam Shapiro, and Karen Barnes.
Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Annual Conference: Call for Papers
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco will host its annual conference on macroeconomics and monetary policy on Friday, March 25, 2022.
We invite researchers to submit working papers by Friday, October 22, 2021. We are interested in a wide set of fields that help inform an understanding and the achievement of the dual goals of price stability and full employment that is broad and inclusive. This includes related fields of macroeconomics, finance, labor economics, international economics, applied microeconomics, public finance, climate economics, and others.
Read our Call for Papers (pdf, 101 kb) for more information.
We are currently planning for a virtual 2022 conference but are preparing for the possibility of an in-person event should the situation permit.
Interview Looks Back at First Year of Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics
For more than a year, the San Francisco Fed has run its Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics to help economists estimate, model, and propose policies to mitigate climate risk. In an interview with the Center for Economic Policy Research’s Tim Phillips, senior policy advisor Glenn Rudebusch of the San Francisco Fed discusses how the seminars are bringing fresh interdisciplinary research to a wider audience.
Watch the video interview on the VoxEU/CEPR website.
New Future of Work Survey: What Will the Post-Pandemic Workplace Look Like?
What changes are in store for the workplace in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? Business leaders from across our District’s nine western states plan to prioritize worker needs and safety when deciding how to move forward, according to our New Future of Work survey.
Learn more in the SF Fed Blog by Hishgee Jargalsaikhan and Luiz Oliveira.
What’s Behind the Recent Rise in Core Inflation?
As the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the economy last spring, inflation fell dramatically. One year later, the opposite is occurring with inflation surpassing 3%. Health care and used cars are the main drivers for the recent spike in prices and their increases are expected to be short-lived.
Read more in the SF Fed Blog by Adam Hale Shapiro, and check out some underlying research on our Inflation Sensitivity to COVID-19 data page.
Mothers in a Pandemic Labor Market
COVID-19 disrupted all aspects of life, leading to steep declines in labor force participation across genders, races, and ethnic groups. Mothers experienced sharper and longer-lasting declines than fathers, and participation rates for Black mothers and Hispanic mothers were among the most affected.
Learn more in the SF Fed Blog by Olivia Lofton, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, and Lily Seitelman.
Article by SF Fed Economists Makes List of Most-Cited by JME
An article by SF Fed economists Zheng Liu and Mark Spiegel, along with coauthors Chun Chang and Jingyi Zhang, made the list of being among the most frequently cited since 2018 for the Journal of Monetary Economics. The article, “Reserve Requirements and Optimal Chinese Stabilization Policy” is one of the top 25 JME articles ranked by number of citations.
Watch FOMC Rewind: What Does the Fed’s March 2021 Decision Mean for You?
The Federal Open Market Committee noted in its March 2021 statement that, although indicators show an improvement in economic activity and employment, the hardest hit sectors remain weakened by the pandemic. What does the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates low mean for you? Let’s rewind and learn more in the SF Fed Blog.
How COVID-19 Triggered a “She-cession”: SF Fed Research Featured in The Economist
The Economist article, “How COVID-19 Triggered America’s First Female Recession in over 50 Years” highlighted SF Fed research by Olivia Lofton, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, and Lily Seitelman, from their working paper, “Parents in a Pandemic Labor Market.”
The article notes that recent lower labor market participation among women reflects both differences in parental responsibilities during the pandemic and large job losses in female-dominated sectors.
Work of Five SF Fed Economists Featured in Recent JME
The latest supplement of the Journal of Monetary Economics recently published four articles from SF Fed staff economists in its massive 1,118-page issue. Check out these articles and other related research by our featured economists.
“Endogenous Forecast Switching Near the Zero Lower Bound” by Kevin J. Lansing, pp. 153-169.
“Unemployment Crises” by Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Lu Zhang, pp. 335-353.
“The Phillips Multiplier” by Regis Barnichon and Geert Mesters, pp. 689-705.
“Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China” by Zheng Liu, Mark M. Spiegel, and Jingyi Zhang, pp. 1,041-1,061.
Two SF Fed Staff Make List of Top Young Economists
Two San Francisco economists were among the top young economists as of January 2021, according to IDEAS rankings. Mauricio Ulate, who joined the Economic Research Department in 2019, ranked 6th, and Pascal Paul, who joined in 2016, ranked 15th in the list.
The top young economist rankings acknowledge the most prolific authors from a pool of over 4,700 economists who were first published within the past five years. IDEAS is the largest bibliographic database dedicated to economics and available freely on the Internet. Based on RePEc, it indexes over 3,300,000 items of research, including over 3,100,000 that can be downloaded in full text.
2021 Asia Economic Policy Conference: Call for Papers
Our Center for Pacific Basin Studies will host “Macroeconomic Policy and Global Economic Recovery” on November 19, 2021, as part of the Asia Economic Policy Conference series. Richard H. Clarida, Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, is scheduled to be the keynote speaker. Researchers can submit papers for consideration by March 1, 2021. Read our Call for Papers for more details.
How Bad Is the U.S. 2020 Fire Season?
The U.S. 2020 fire season has been intense so far, especially in California and Oregon. Assessing the spread of wildfires through mid-November shows it is comparable to the two most damaging fire seasons in recent memory. However, learning the cost of actual damages will take time.
Read SF Fed Blog by Luiz E. Oliveira for more on the 2020 U.S. wildfire season, as well as our earlier FRBSF Economic Letter, Rising Wildfire Risk for the 12th District Economy.
Assessing the Accuracy of China’s Economic Rebound from COVID-19
While China’s economy plunged following the outbreak of COVID-19, official data report that it has rebounded sharply. The San Francisco Fed’s China Cyclical Activity Tracker—or China CAT—confirms this, indicating modestly higher activity than China’s official data for the second quarter of 2020.
Learn more about China’s economic growth through quarterly updates to the China CAT data page.
Watch FOMC Rewind: What the Fed’s July 2020 Decision Means for You
The Research Department has launched a new way to help people understand the policy statements released after each Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The first videos include a chat about what goes into policy discussions and another about the July 2020 FOMC decision.
Check out the San Francisco Fed’s #FOMCrewind on Twitter, and read more about it in the SF Fed Blog.
Comparing News Sentiment in the Time of COVID-19 to the 2008 Financial Crisis
The Daily News Sentiment Index can be used to assess how sentiment responded to the COVID-19 crisis compared to the 2008 financial crisis. News sentiment declined at a similar pace and scale during both crises but recovered more quickly in the financial crisis. Read more on SF Fed Blog by Shelby Buckman, Adam Shapiro, and Dan Wilson.
In the Headlines: Petrosky-Nadeau Research Hits Washington Post Front Page
The chart tells the story: “Jobless Rate Soars to 14.7%, Worst Level since Great Depression.”
The front-page story in the Washington Post’s May 8 issue features a graphic from research by Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, FRB San Francisco, and coauthor Lu Zhang in their paper, “Unemployment Crises.” The Post notes that the authors analyze historical sources to estimate monthly unemployment rates back to 1890, about 70 years before the beginning of monthly observations from the Labor Department.
The article is forthcoming in the Journal of Monetary Economics.
Keeping an Eye on Daily News Sentiment
The Daily News Sentiment Index is available on the San Francisco Fed’s Research website. Featuring research by Adam Shapiro, Moritz Sudhof, and Dan Wilson, the index shows how economic sentiment has changed during the current pandemic and offers downloadable data back to 1980.
News sentiment data will be updated each week to show the past week’s daily sentiment numbers. Check the most recent update in our Indicators and Data section.
2020 Annual Conference on Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy – Canceled
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco had hoped to host its Annual Conference on Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy on Friday, March 27, 2020. The conference brings together academic and central bank economists, financial market practitioners, and policymakers. Papers focus on macroeconomics broadly defined. Out of an abundance of caution due to the COVID-19 virus, this year’s conference has been canceled, but we are sharing the participant list and papers, which we hope will be of interest. Read more
The Finer Points of Cyclical and Acyclical Inflation
Distinguishing between items that change price with economic growth and those that are unaffected is one way to learn more about inflation. An update to the SF Fed’s Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation measure uses a new method to improve such inflation data. Read more
In the Headlines: Jorda Research Featured in MarketWatch
“Opinion: This thorough study says which investments have done best since 1870”
By Howard Gold, MarketWatch, November 21.
Summarizing recent research by Òscar Jordà et al. in Quarterly Journal of Economics 34(3, August), Gold asks, “How well do the assets that people own perform over decades? The most recent effort to measure that … is titled “The Rate of Return on Everything: 1870-2015.” It tracks the total return of stocks, housing, Treasury bills and government bonds for 16 countries over that time and may be the most comprehensive data set on asset returns ever assembled.”
Based on FRB San Francisco Working Paper 2017-25
Forthcoming in American Economic Review: “Interest Rates Under Falling Stars”
The paper “Interest Rates Under Falling Stars” by San Francisco Fed economists Glenn D. Rudebusch and Michael Bauer has been accepted for publication in the American Economic Review. This paper bridges the gap between macroeconomic and finance views of long-run trends. See more research by Glenn D. Rudebusch and by Michael Bauer.
Quora Session Features Answers on Automation, Inflation, and More
Is the global economy showing signs of growth or catastrophy? How can we mitigate the damage that automation may do to the workforce? How can economics be more accessible to the public? Why does the San Francisco Fed exist? Sylvain Leduc and Andrew Foerster answered these and other questions posed by the public during a recent Quora session.
Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference: Call for Papers
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco will host its annual conference on macroeconomics and monetary policy on Friday, March 27, 2020.
We invite researchers to submit working papers by Friday, October 18. We prefer topics in the area of macroeconomics broadly defined that are relevant for monetary policy, which may involve related fields such as finance, labor economics, international economics, applied microeconomics, and public finance.
Read our Call for Papers for more information
San Francisco Fed Joins CEPR Global Research Network
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is pleased to announce its membership in the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), one of the largest global research networks in the field of economics. Read more
Come Work with Us: Opening for Research Economist
The Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is looking to hire an experienced or new Ph.D. economist in the areas of Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, Microeconomics, Labor Economics, International Economics, or Financial Economics. For all candidates, solid research achievement and potential are essential. All economists are expected to publish in top academic journals and be able to prepare high-level analysis for Bank policy briefings and publications. Excellent communication skills are required.
The Department provides an outstanding research environment and has a proven track record of producing highly cited work. Salary and benefits are competitive.
The application deadline is November 27, 2019. The Department plans to interview candidates at the ASSA Meetings in San Diego in January 2020. Apply now
“The Economics of Climate Change” conference set for November 8
The San Francisco Fed will host the conference “The Economics of Climate Change” (pdf, 104 kb) on November 8. Presentations will focus on new research examining the economic and financial implications of climate change.
This conference will bring together researchers from around the globe to discuss topics such as quantifying the climate risk faced by households, firms, and the financial system; measuring the economic costs and consequences of climate change; accounting for the effects of climate change on financial asset prices; and understanding the potential implications of climate change for monetary, supervisory, and trade policy.
Frank Elderson, member of the Governing Board of the Netherlands Central Bank and chair of the Network for Greening the Financial System, will deliver keynote remarks.
Conference attendance is by invitation only. Presentations will be livestreamed on the conference page.
SF Fed researchers among “Most Cited” for Journal of Monetary Economics
Research by three San Francisco Fed economists made the most cited list for the Journal of Monetary Economics among articles published since 2016:
“Uncertainty Shocks Are Aggregate Demand Shocks” by Sylvain Leduc and Zheng Liu
“Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy” by Vasco Cúrdia and Michael Woodford
“Land Prices and Unemployment” by Zheng Liu, Jianjun Miao, and Tao Zha
Recently published: “Missing Growth from Creative Destruction”
Published in August 2019 American Economic Review, by San Francisco Fed’s Huiyu Li with coauthors Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, and Peter J. Klenow. See more research by Huiyu Li.
Parabéns to Economist Fernanda Nechio’s New Role with Central Bank of Brazil
Congratulations to Fernanda Nechio for being appointed as Deputy Governor on the Central Bank of Brazil’s monetary policy committee! In her new office, Nechio will also oversee International Affairs and Corporate Risk Management. Read more
SF Fed Visiting Scholar Nakamura Named 2019 Clark Medalist
The American Economic Association named Emi Nakamura the best young American economist for 2019. This John Bates Clark medalist contributes to the San Francisco Fed through her work as a visiting scholar in Economic Research. Photo provided by UC Berkeley. Read more
Recently published: “Reserve Requirements and Optimal Chinese Stabilization Policy”
Published in May 2019 Journal of Monetary Economics, by San Francisco Fed’s Zheng Liu and Mark M. Spiegel, with coauthors Chun Chang and Jingyi Zhang. See more research by Zheng Liu and Mark Spiegel.
Sustainability and Trade-offs of a Hot Economy: Fed Listens at the San Francisco Fed
The economy is close to the Federal Reserve’s employment and inflation goals, so now is a good time to consider how to keep it running smoothly in the future. This is the focus of the 2019 Fed Listens program, including a San Francisco Fed event on September 26 to discuss managing a hot economy. Read more