Getting China Right: Three Scenarios for the Future

Arthur Kroeber, Founder, Gavekal Dragonomics in Conversation with Andy Rothman, Investment Strategist, Matthews Asia

Discussion:

In the last three decades China has surged from an underdeveloped country to the world’s second-biggest economy. Yet as the recent tumult on global markets shows, China risks destabilizing the world as it makes the difficult transition from an investment-driven to a consumer-oriented economy. The headwinds of a rapidly aging population, rampant corruption and enormous national debt are also slowing the country’s growth. Whether China succeeds or fails has huge implications not only for its citizens but for the rest of the world: “getting China right” is one of the most important tasks of our time.

Arthur Kroeber, one of the world’s leading commentators on the Chinese economy, analyzes three scenarios for the future and discusses whether China is more likely to evolve into a powerful Singapore-style economy, become an unstable but aggressive Russian-style state, or follow Japan into genteel decline. He’ll be joined in conversation with Andy Rothman, Investment Strategist, Matthews Asia.

About the Speakers:

Arthur Kroeber is founder of the Gavekal Dragonomics research service, editor of China Economic Quarterly and author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know (Oxford, April 2016).

Andy Rothman is an Investment Strategist at Matthews Asia. He is principally responsible for developing research focused on China’s ongoing economic and political developments while also complementing the broader investment team with in-depth analysis on Asia. In addition, he plays a key role in communicating to clients and the media the firm’s perspectives and latest insights into China and the greater Asia region.