China and Asia in the Face of Uncertainty

Discussion: China and Asia would in principle benefit from stronger growth in the United States due to fiscal expansion. However, the climate for exports to the US seems have become harsher. Louis Kuijs and David P. Loevinger will explore critical questions given today’s economic climate. For example, how is China positioned for more protectionist U.S. policies? How will policymakers’ efforts to stabilize both the renminbi and the amount of foreign exchange reserves be affected by a globally strong U.S. dollar? While China is entering 2017 with decent growth momentum, what will be the impact of measures to contain housing prices and a change in tone in macroeconomic policy? Which Asian countries are best placed to outperform in 2017? Further out, what does the shift in U.S. economic and trade policy mean for Asia?

Please join the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco for breakfast as we explore China’s and Asia’s outlook in the face of domestic challenges and an uncertain international climate.

About the Speakers:

Louis Kuijs is the Head of Asia Economics at Oxford Economics (OE), based in Hong Kong. He leads the firm’s Asia research, with a specific focus on China, heading OE’s macroeconomic work and forecasting services. In 2012–2015, he worked at the Royal Bank of Scotland as Chief Economist, Greater China, leading research on China, Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Before that, Louis worked as project director at the Fung Global Institute in Hong Kong, coordinating research on evolving growth patterns in China and India. In 2004–2011, Louis was senior economist at the World Bank Office in Beijing, coordinating the Bank’s macroeconomic work on China and heading its China Quarterly Update. Louis also worked as a senior economist at the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC from 1997 to 2004. Earlier in his career, Louis’ work included macroeconomic forecasting and modeling on countries in Europe, Latin America and Asia at Oxford Economics and research at the University of Amsterdam. Louis holds a Master of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics, a PhD degree in Economics from the University of Amsterdam, and a mechanical engineering degree.

David P. Loevinger is a Managing Director of the Emerging Markets Sovereign Research at TCW. As a sovereign analyst, David covers the Asian region. Prior to joining TCW in 2012, David was the U.S. Department of Treasury’s Senior Coordinator for China Affairs and the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue. While at Treasury, he also served as minister counselor for financial affairs at the U.S. embassy in Beijing and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Latin America, Asia, Africa and the Middle East. David was previously an economist for the International Monetary Fund and also worked in the office of the IMF’s U.S. executive director. He started his career in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, the Senate Banking Committee, and the U.S. Commerce Department. David earned a Masters in Public Policy from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a BA in Government and Economics from Dartmouth College.