SF Fed Workshop on Expectations and Behavioral Macroeconomics

Date

Monday, Oct 27, 2025

Location

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
San Francisco, CA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

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Topics

MacroeconomicsMonetary PolicyU.S. Economy

Monday, October 27, 2025

Welcoming Remarks

Session 1

Session Chair:

Yeji Sung, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Attention to the Macroeconomy

Authors:

Sebastian Link
Andreas Peichl
Oliver Pfäuti, University of Texas, Austin
Christopher Roth
Johannes Wohlfart

Discussant:

Michael Cai, Rutgers University

Dynamic Pricing under Information Frictions: Evidence from Firm-level
Subjective Expectations

Authors:

Luca Gagliardone, Yale University

Discussant:

Mathieu Pedemonte, Inter-American Development Bank

Keynote Session

Chair:

Timo Reinelt, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys
and Experiments

Authors:

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley

Session 2

Chair:

Sanjay Singh, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Teach, don’t give? Mental models, understanding and communication

Authors:

Michael McMahon, University of Oxford
Ryan Rholes
Peter Rickards

Discussant:

Anushka Mitra, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

We Think That They Think: Political Affiliation and Higher-Order
Beliefs

Authors:

Rupal Kamdar, Indiana University, Bloomington
Walker Ray
Mauricio Ulate

Discussant:

Yoon Joo Jo, Texas A&M University

Session 3

Chair:

Timo Reinelt, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Ricardian Non-Equivalence

Authors:

Martin Eichenbaum
Joao Guerreiro, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and
University of California, Los Angeles

Jana Obradović

Discussant:

Jonathan Adams, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Workshop organizers

Timo Reinelt, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Sanjay R. Singh, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Yeji Sung, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Limited travel and accommodation funding for presenters from academic institutions will be available.