Economic Letter

Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve.

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    The AI Moment? Possibilities, Productivity, and Policy

    AI adoption and use are still evolving, and the technology itself is changing rapidly. What we know about AI and its impact on productivity growth and the economy remains uncertain. Transformations take time. We need to look for early indicators in the data and in business to get monetary policy right. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Silicon Valley Leadership Group and San Jose State University in San Jose, California, on February 17.

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February 17, 2026

Daniel Wilson, Xiaoqing Zhou

February 9, 2026

Mark Spiegel, Lora Dufresne

February 2, 2026

Schuyler Louie, John Mondragon, Rami Najjar, Johannes Wieland

January 12, 2026

Leila Bengali, Ingrid Chen, Addie New-Schmidt, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

January 5, 2026

Regis Barnichon, Aayush Singh

December 15, 2025

Wataru Miyamoto, Rami Najjar, Thuy Lan Nguyen, Dmitriy Sergeyev

November 24, 2025

Naomi Halbersleben, Oscar Jorda, Fernanda Nechio

November 19, 2025

Evgeniya Duzhak, Addie New-Schmidt

November 3, 2025

Greeshma Avaradi, Stephie Fried, Toby Graf, Marianna Kudlyak, Brandon Miskanic

October 14, 2025

Leila Bengali, Cheikh Fall

October 6, 2025

Rohit Garimella, Simon Kwan, Thomas Mertens

September 22, 2025

Joshua Blonz, Brigitte Roth-Tran, Sarah Siegel, Erin Troland, Cindy Zhao

September 2, 2025

Hamid Firooz, Sylvain Leduc, Zheng Liu, Deepika Baskar Prabhakar

August 18, 2025

Rohit Garimella, Oscar Jorda, Sanjay Singh

August 11, 2025

Hamza Abdelrahman, Luiz Edgard Oliveira, Aditi Poduri

July 14, 2025

Caroline Paulson, Aditi Poduri, Aayush Singh, Mauricio Ulate

July 7, 2025

Sophia Cho, Thomas Mertens, John Williams

June 30, 2025

Mary C. Daly

June 2, 2025

Anton Bobrov, Rupal Kamdar, Caroline Paulson, Aditi Poduri, Mauricio Ulate

May 19, 2025

Bart Hobijn, Fernanda Nechio