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Hong Kong and China and the Global Recession
Hong Kong and China are recovering impressively from global recession thanks to effective stimulus programs. But authorities worry that expansionary U.S. monetary policy may fuel asset bubbles in their economies. In the long run, the recession may nudge China toward increased domestic consumption by highlighting the risks of export-driven development. This Letter is adapted from a report by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on her visit to Hong Kong and China November 15-21, 2009. Each year, the president of the San Francisco Fed joins the Federal Reserve governor responsible for liaison with Asia on a fact-finding trip to the region, in keeping with the Bank’s objective of developing expertise on issues related to the Pacific Basin.
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The Risk of Returning to the Zero Lower Bound
Following the global financial crisis, U.S. monetary policy was constrained by the zero lower bound for short-term interest rates for many years. It has since lifted off and rates have gradually climbed. However, in light of the continuing economic expansion, it is relevant to ask how likely it is for the lower bound on interest rates to again become a constraint on monetary policy. Analysis using several different approaches suggests that there currently appears to be a low risk of the economy returning to the zero lower bound for at least the next several years.
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Sanjay R. Singh
Sanjay R. Singh is a research advisor in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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Central Bank Inflation Targeting
The five conference papers (listed at the end) were centered around measuring or evaluating the degree to which inflation should be the focus of the operating framework used to implement monetary policy. Explicit inflation targeting has been adopted by a number of central banks around the world.
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Sylvain Leduc
Sylvain Leduc is executive vice president and director of Economic Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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A Conversation with Mary C. Daly at the Silicon Valley Directors Exchange
President Mary C. Daly sat down with Simone Lagomarsino, President, First Foundation Bank, for a wide-ranging conversation on the current state of the U.S. economy, AI, and innovation at the Silicon Valley Directors Exchange.