Center for Monetary Research Working Papers

Working papers are academic research by SF Fed economists and affiliates intended for publication in scholarly journals. This section contains working papers on monetary economics and macro-finance topics that have been authored or co-authored by SF Fed Economists.

  • Bank Risk-Taking, Credit Allocation, and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from China

    2020-27 | July 1, 2023

    Revised October 18, 2024

    Zheng Liu, Xiaoming Li, Yuchao Peng, Zhiwei Xu

    Using confidential loan-level data from a large Chinese bank, we examine how Basel III implementation influenced the responses of bank risk-taking to monetary policy shocks. We use a difference-in-differences (DID) approach, exploiting disparities in lending behavior between high- and low-risk bank branches before and after the new regulations. Our findings reveal a novel risk-weighting channel through which monetary policy easing significantly reduced bank risk-taking.  However, this risk reduction was achieved by shifting lending towards ostensibly low-risk state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with government guarantees, despite their lower average productivity. Our findings suggest a tradeoff facing China’s monetary policy between curbing bank risks and addressing credit misallocation.