We produce a wide range of publications that share the latest data, analysis, and insights from various teams at the SF Fed. Our publications help inform and strengthen public understanding of economic issues and its impact on people and communities.
Economic Research Publications
FRBSF Economic Letter >
Economic analysis for general audiences
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Unauthorized Immigration Effects on Local Labor Markets
The large increase and subsequent decline of unauthorized immigrant workers in recent years have raised questions about the impact of these changes on local labor markets across the United States. New analysis linking immigration data with employment data for specific areas suggests that the rapid rise in unauthorized immigrant worker flows increased local employment roughly one-for-one. Extending the analysis to the industry level further suggests that the slowdown of net immigration had a large negative impact on local employment, particularly for construction and manufacturing.
SF FedViews >
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook
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SF FedViews: Slow Job Growth in a Strong Economy
Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of January 15, 2026.
Working Papers >
The latest in economic research
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ChatMacro: Evaluating Inflation Forecasts of Generative AI*
Recent research suggests that generic large language models (LLMs) can match the accuracy of traditional methods when forecasting macroeconomic variables in pseudo out-of-sample settings generated via prompts. This paper assesses the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of LLMs by eliciting real-time forecasts of U.S. inflation from ChatGPT. We find that out-of-sample predictions are largely inaccurate and stale, […]
Community Engagement and Analysis Publications
Community Development Research Briefs >
Research briefs feature data and commentary on community development trends and issues.
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On-the-Job Exposure to AI Among Lower-Income Workers
To better understand the potential impacts of AI on the economy, this analysis assesses workers likely to be exposed to AI on the job, paying particular attention to workers in lower-income households, what occupations and industries they work in, and how exposure varies across different parts of the country.
Community Development Working Papers >
Working papers provide in-depth analysis of emerging community development issues from practitioners and scholars.
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Housing Market Interventions and Residential Mobility in the San Francisco Bay Area
Limited evaluation research exists on which housing solutions are most effective in stabilizing communities so that those who wish to stay are able to do so in the midst of an influx of newcomers. This study seeks to fill this gap by assessing patterns of individual and household mobility related to specific housing interventions in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area. Specifically, this study examines impacts of market-rate and subsidized development, and tenant protections, including rent stabilization and just cause for evictions protections.