We produce a wide range of publications that share the latest data, analysis, and insights from various teams at the SF Fed. Our publications help inform and strengthen public understanding of economic issues and its impact on people and communities.
Economic Research Publications
FRBSF Economic Letter >
Economic analysis for general audiences
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Monetary Policy Through the Lens of Market-Based Inflation
Some goods and services prices are not directly observed and must be indirectly derived for measuring inflation. This nonmarket-based inflation category has been an important factor keeping headline inflation elevated over the past two years. Because indirectly deriving prices introduces measurement uncertainty, one monetary policy approach would be to focus solely on directly observable prices. Applying this through a well-known monetary policy rule suggests a notably lower federal funds rate. However, other rules that account for the implicit uncertainty that policymakers face would leave the federal funds rate essentially unchanged.
SF FedViews >
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook
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SF FedViews: Prospects for AI-related Activity Add to Uncertainty Around the Economic Outlook in 2026
Mark M. Spiegel, senior policy adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of February 26, 2026.
Working Papers >
The latest in economic research
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From Volcker to the Pandemic Era: History Dependent Anchoring of Short-Run Expected Inflation
We develop an endogenous measure of anchoring for short-run expected inflation in a New Keynesian model with full-information rational expectations. Specifically, we allow the fraction of non-reoptimizing firms that index prices to the inflation target, rather than lagged inflation, to depend on observed inflation persistence. The model with endogenous indexation generates a scatter plot of […]
Community Engagement and Analysis Publications
Community Development Articles>
Short-form insights on key community development topics, informed by research and engagement in the 12th District.
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Understanding the Evolving AI Landscape and Its Implications for Community Development
The latest Community Investments series examines the evolving landscape of AI and its implications for community development. This article summarizes the range of topics and stakeholders explored in this issue.
Community Development Research Briefs >
Research briefs feature data and commentary on community development trends and issues.
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On-the-Job Exposure to AI Among Lower-Income Workers
To better understand the potential impacts of AI on the economy, this analysis assesses workers likely to be exposed to AI on the job, paying particular attention to workers in lower-income households, what occupations and industries they work in, and how exposure varies across different parts of the country.
Community Development Working Papers >
Working papers provide in-depth analysis of emerging community development issues from practitioners and scholars.
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Housing Market Interventions and Residential Mobility in the San Francisco Bay Area
Limited evaluation research exists on which housing solutions are most effective in stabilizing communities so that those who wish to stay are able to do so in the midst of an influx of newcomers. This study seeks to fill this gap by assessing patterns of individual and household mobility related to specific housing interventions in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area. Specifically, this study examines impacts of market-rate and subsidized development, and tenant protections, including rent stabilization and just cause for evictions protections.