The Center for Pacific Basin Studies (CPBS) promotes cooperation among central banks in the Pacific Basin and provides insight into and analysis of economic policy issues affecting the region.
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Pacific Basin Notes
Effects of Oil Supply Disruptions on Oil Exporters, Importers
Dmitriy Sergeyev, Thuy Lan Nguyen, and Wataru Miyamoto
Economies may face different challenges during oil supply disruptions depending on whether they primarily import or export oil. Comparing the effects of past disruptions in Canada, a large net oil exporter, and the euro area, a large oil importer, suggests that both experienced rising inflation and declining economic activity. This reflects that the energy sector accounts for a small share of GDP, while oil prices affect global demand and nonenergy sectors. Thus, benefits to the energy sector from higher oil prices were outweighed by the costs to the broader economy.
Working Papers
The Crowding-In Effects of Local Government Debt in China
Xiaoming Li, Zheng Liu, Yuchao Peng, and Zhiwei Xu
We study how changes in the composition of Chinese local government debt influenced bank risk taking, credit allocation, and local productivity. Using confidential loan-level data and a difference-in-difference identification approach, we show that a debt-to-bond swap program for local governments implemented in 2015 significantly increased bank risk taking through a risk-weighting channel under Basel III capital regulations. The debt swap program converted bank holdings of municipal corporate debt to local government bonds, reducing banks’ risk-weighted assets. Banks responded by lowering credit spreads on loans to privately owned firms (POEs) relative to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), with significantly larger reductions in POE credit spreads in provinces with more outstanding government debt. Furthermore, the credit reallocation toward more productive private firms—a crowding in effect of the debt swap—significantly raised local productivity.
Conferences
Call for Papers: 2026 Pacific Basin Research Conference
November 20, 2026
Submission deadline: August 15, 2026
2025 Asia Economic Policy Conference: Monetary Policy in the Age of New Technologies and Structural Changes
November 20, 2025 – November 21, 2025
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco | San Francisco, CA
2025 West Coast Workshop in International Finance
April 4, 2025
Co-organized by the Center for Pacific Basin Studies at Santa Clara University
2024 Pacific Basin Research Conference
November 22, 2024
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco | San Francisco, CA
2023 Asia Economic Policy Conference: Global Linkages in a Post-Pandemic World
November 16 – November 17, 2023
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco | San Francisco, CA