
Daniel Wilson
Vice President
Microeconomic Research
Public finance, Productivity, Investment
CV (pdf, 307.57 kb) | Bio (pdf, 95.51 kb)
Profiles: Google Scholar | RePEc | SSRN | LinkedIn
Working Papers
Climate Change and the Geography of the U.S. Economy
2023-17 | with Leduc | November 2023
abstract (+)Fiscal Policies for Job Creation and Innovation: The Experiences of US States
2023-01 | with Chirinko | January 2023
abstract (+)The Road of Federal Infrastructure Spending Passes Through the States
2022-03 | with Leduc | February 2022
abstract (+)Fiscal Foresight and Perverse Distortions to Firm Behavior: Anticipatory Dips and Compensating Rebounds
2021-15 | with Chirinko | March 2023
abstract (+)The Local Economic Impact of Natural Disasters
2020-34 | with Roth Tran | February 2023
abstract (+)Weather, Mobility, and COVID-19: A Panel Local Projections Estimator for Understanding and Forecasting Infectious Disease Spread
2020-23 | February 2021
abstract (+)The Impact of Weather on Local Employment: Using Big Data on Small Places
2016-21 | June 2017
abstract (+)Inequality and Mortality: New Evidence from U.S. County Panel Data
2013-13 | with Daly | May 2013
abstract (+)A State Level Database for the Manufacturing Sector: Construction and Sources
2009-21 | with Chirinko | October 2009
abstract (+)public_cwdata.csv – CSV public use Chirinko-Wilson state manufacturing panel data
Keeping Up with the Joneses and Staying Ahead of the Smiths: Evidence from Suicide Data
2006-12 | with Daly | May 2006
abstract (+)Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes)
Job Creation Tax Credits, Fiscal Foresight, And Job Growth: Evidence From U.S. States
National Tax Journal, 2023 | with Chirinko
abstract (+)Taxing Billionaires: Estate Taxes and the Geographical Location of the Ultra-Wealthy
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2023 | with Moretti
abstract (+)Taking the Fed at Its Word: A New Approach to Estimating Central Bank Objectives Using Text Analysis
Review of Economic Studies 89(5), October 2022, 2,768-2,805 | with Shapiro
abstract (+)Measuring News Sentiment
Journal of Econometrics, 2020 | with Shapiro and Sudhof
abstract (+)Clearing the Fog: The Predictive Power of Weather for Employment Reports and their Asset Price Responses
American Economic Review: Insights 1(3), December 2019, 373-388
abstract (+)Tax Competition among U.S. States: Racing to the Bottom or Riding on a Seesaw?
Journal of Public Economics 155, 2017, 147-163 | with Chirinko
abstract (+)The Effect of State Taxes on the Geographical Location of Top Earners: Evidence from Star Scientists
American Economic Review 107(7), 2017, 1858-1903 | with Moretti | Yes
abstract (+)Are State Governments Roadblocks to Federal Stimulus? Evidence on the Flypaper Effect of Highway Grants in the 2009 Recovery Act
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 9(2), 2017, 253-292 | with Leduc | Yes
abstract (+)State Incentives for Innovation, Star Scientists and Jobs: Evidence from Biotech
Journal of Urban Economics 79, January 2014, 20-38 | with Moretti
abstract (+)Infrastructure Spending as Fiscal Stimulus: Assessing the Evidence
Review of Economics and Institutions 5(1), Winter 2014, 1-24 | with Leduc
abstract (+)Relative Status and Well-Being: Evidence from U.S. Suicide Deaths
Review of Economics and Statistics 95(5), December 2013, 1480-1500 | with Daly and Johnson
abstract (+)Roads to Prosperity or Bridges to Nowhere? Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment
In NBER Macroeconomic Annual 2012, 27, ed. by Jonathan Parker and Michael Woodford | University of Chicago Press, 2013. 89-142 | with Leduc
abstract (+)Fiscal Spending Jobs Multipliers: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 4(3), August 2012, 251-282
abstract (+)Dark Contrasts: The Paradox of High Rates of Suicide in Happy Places
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 80(3), 2011, 435-442 | with Daly, Oswald, and Wu
abstract (+)Can Lower Taxes Be Bought? The Role of Business Rent-Seeking in Tax Competition among U.S. States
National Tax Journal 63(4), 2010, 967-994 | with Chirinko
abstract (+)Beggar Thy Neighbor? The In-State, Out-of-State, and Aggregate Effects of R&D Tax Credits
Review of Economics and Statistics 91(2), 2009, 431-436
abstract (+)RDusercost.xls – Data set
Happiness, Unhappiness, and Suicide: An Empirical Assessment
Journal of European Economic Association 7, 2009, 539-549 | with Daly
abstract (+)IT and Beyond: The Contribution of Heterogeneous Capital to Productivity
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 27(1), January 2009, 52-70
abstract (+)State Investment Tax Incentives: A Zero-Sum Game?
Journal of Public Economics 92(12), December 2008, 2,362-2,384 | with Chirinko
abstract (+)Investment Behavior of U.S. Firms over Heterogeneous Capital Goods: A Snapshot
Review of Income and Wealth 54(2) , June 2008, 269-278
abstract (+)Micro and Macro Data Integration: The Case of Capital
In A New Architecture for The U.S. National Accounts, NBER/CRIW Volume, ed. by Jorgenson, Landefeld, and Nordhaus | Chicago: University of Chicago, 2006. 541-609 | with Becker, Jarmin, Klimek, and Haltiwanger
abstract (+)Quantifying Embodied Technological Change
Review of Economic Dynamics 7(1), January 2004, 1-26 | with Sakellaris
abstract (+)Importing Technology
Journal of Monetary Economics 51(1), January 2004, 1-32 | with Caselli
abstract (+)Embodying Embodiment in a Structural, Macroeconomic Input-Output Model
Economic Systems Research 15(3), September 2003, 371-398
abstract (+)Is Embodied Technology the Result of Upstream R&D? Industry-Level Evidence
Review of Economic Dynamics 5(2), April 2002, 285-317
abstract (+)Estimating Returns to Scale: Lo, Still No Balance
Journal of Macroeconomics 22(2), Spring 2000, 285-314
abstract (+)FRBSF Publications
Recent and Near-Term Fiscal Policy: Headwind or Tailwind?
Economic Letter 2023-29 | November 13, 2023 | with Meisenbacher
Will a Cooler Labor Market Slow Supercore Inflation?
Economic Letter 2023-18 | July 12, 2023 | with Leduc and Zhao
Can the News Drive Inflation Expectations?
Economic Letter 2022-31 | November 14, 2022 | with Kmetz and Shapiro
How Strongly Are Local Economies Tied to COVID-19?
Economic Letter 2021-30 | November 15, 2021 | with Tarasewicz
Where Is the U.S. COVID-19 Pandemic Headed?
Economic Letter 2021-11 | April 12, 2021
Comparing News Sentiment in the Time of COVID-19 to the 2008 Financial Crisis
SF Fed Blog | 2020 | with Buckman and Shapiro
The COVID-19 Fiscal Multiplier: Lessons from the Great Recession
Economic Letter 2020-13 | May 26, 2020
News Sentiment in the Time of COVID-19
Economic Letter 2020-08 | April 6, 2020 | with Buckman, Shapiro, and Sudhof
The Evolution of the FOMC’s Explicit Inflation Target
Economic Letter 2019-12 | April 15, 2019 | with Shapiro
Does Ultra-Low Unemployment Spur Rapid Wage Growth?
Economic Letter 2019-02 | January 14, 2019 | with Leduc and Marti
Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad
Economic Letter 2018-18 | July 9, 2018 | with Mahedy
Has the Wage Phillips Curve Gone Dormant?
Economic Letter 2017-30 | October 16, 2017 | with Leduc
How Does Weird Weather Affect National Employment?
SF Fed Blog | 2017
What’s in the News? A New Economic Indicator
Economic Letter 2017-10 | April 10, 2017 | with Shapiro
How Important Is Information from FOMC Minutes?
Economic Letter 2016-37 | December 19, 2016 | with Nechio
Clearing the Fog: The Effects of Weather on Jobs
Economic Letter 2016-29 | October 3, 2016 | with van der List
Residual Seasonality and Monetary Policy
Economic Letter 2015-27 | August 24, 2015 | with Rudebusch and Pyle
The Puzzle of Weak First-Quarter GDP Growth
Economic Letter 2015-16 | May 18, 2015 | with Rudebusch and Mahedy
Competing for Jobs: Local Taxes and Incentives
Economic Letter 2015-06 | February 23, 2015
Innovation and Incentives: Evidence from Biotech
Economic Letter 2014-37 | December 8, 2014 | with Moretti
Fueling Road Spending with Federal Stimulus
Economic Letter 2014-25 | August 25, 2014 | with Leduc
Taxes, Transfers, and State Economic Differences
Economic Letter 2013-36 | December 2, 2013 | with Malkin
Fiscal Headwinds: Is the Other Shoe About to Drop?
Economic Letter 2013-16 | June 3, 2013 | with Lucking
Highway Grants: Roads to Prosperity?
Economic Letter 2012-35 | November 26, 2012 | with Leduc
U.S. Fiscal Policy: Headwind or Tailwind?
Economic Letter 2012-20 | July 2, 2012 | with Lucking
Government Spending: An Economic Boost?
Economic Letter 2012-04 | February 6, 2012
What’s in Your Wallet? The Future of Cash
Economic Letter 2011-33 | October 24, 2011 | with Gerst
Is the Recent Productivity Boom Over?
Economic Letter 2010-28 | September 20, 2010
Fiscal Crises of the States: Causes and Consequences
Economic Letter 2010-20 | June 28, 2010 | with Gerst
The U.S. and World Economic Geography Before and After the Downturn: Conference Summary
Economic Letter 2010-13 | April 26, 2010
State Business Taxes and Investment: State-by-State Simulations
Economic Review | 2010 | with Chirinko
Are Fiscal Stimulus Funds Going to the “Right” States?
Economic Letter 2009-14 | April 17, 2009
Tax Credits for Job Creation and Retention: What Can We Learn from the States?
Economic Letter 2009-08 | February 20, 2009 | with Notzon
Research on the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Symposium Summary
Economic Letter 2008-20 | July 3, 2008
Recent Trends in Economic Volatility: Conference Summary
Economic Letter 2008-06 | February 15, 2008 | with Notzon
Relative Comparisons and Economics: Empirical Evidence
Economic Letter 2007-30 | October 5, 2007 | with Daly
Changes in Income Inequality across the U.S.
Economic Letter 2007-28 | September 21, 2007 | with Regev
The Mystery of Falling State Corporate Income Taxes
Economic Letter 2006-35 | December 8, 2006
Productivity Growth: Causes and Consequences–Conference Summary
Economic Letter 2006-02 | February 24, 2006
The Rise and Spread of State R&D Tax Credits
Economic Letter 2005-26 | October 14, 2005
Are State R&D Tax Credits Constitutional? An Economic Perspective
Economic Letter 2005-11 | June 3, 2005
Do Differences in Countries’ Capital Composition Matter?
Economic Letter 2004-09 | April 9, 2004
Are We Running Out of New Ideas? A Look at Patents and R&D
Economic Letter 2003-26 | September 12, 2003
Where to Find the Productivity Gains from Innovation?
Economic Letter 2003-04 | February 21, 2003
Productivity in the Twelfth District
Economic Letter 2002-33 | November 8, 2002
ETC (embodied technological change), etc.
Economic Letter 2002-05 | March 1, 2002