Mauricio Ulate, Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Mauricio Ulate

Senior Economist

Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, International Economics


CV (pdf, 83.51 kb)

Profiles: Google Scholar | RePEc | Personal website

Working Papers
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New-Keynesian Trade: Understanding the Employment and Welfare Effects of Trade Shocks

2020-32 | With Rodrıguez-Clare and Vasquez | September 2020

abstract (+)
There is a growing empirical consensus that trade shocks can have important effects on unemployment and nonemployment across local-labor markets within an economy. This paper introduces downward nominal wage rigidity to an otherwise standard quantitative trade model and shows how this framework can generate changes in unemployment and nonemployment that match those uncovered by the empirical literature studying the “China shock.” We also compare the associated welfare effects predicted by this model with those in the model without unemployment. We find that the China shock leads to average welfare increases in most U.S. states, including many that experience unemployment during the transition. However, nominal rigidities reduce the overall U.S. gains from the China shock between one and two thirds. In addition, there are ten states that experience welfare losses in the presence of downward nominal wage rigidity but would have experienced welfare gains without it.
Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes)
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Alternative Models of Interest Rate Pass-Through in Normal and Negative Territory

International Journal of Central Banking 17 (1), 2021, 3-34 | Yes

abstract (+)
In the aftermath of the Great Recession, many countries used low or negative policy rates to stimulate the economy. These policies gave rise to a rapidly growing literature that seeks to understand and quantify their impact. A fundamental step when studying the effectiveness of low and negative policy rates is to understand their transmission to loan and deposit rates. This paper proposes two models of pass-through from policy rates to loan and deposit rates that can match important stylized facts while remaining parsimonious. These models can be used to study the transition between positive and negative policy rates and to quantify the impact of negative rates on banks.
Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound: The Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates

American Economic Review 111, 2021, 1-40

abstract (+)
After the Great Recession several central banks started setting negative nominal interest rates in an expansionary attempt, but the effectiveness of this measure remains unclear. Negative rates can stimulate the economy by lowering the rates that commercial banks charge on loans, but they can also erode bank profitability by squeezing deposit spreads. This paper studies the effects of negative rates in a new DSGE model where banks intermediate the transmission of monetary policy. I use bank-level data to calibrate the model and find that monetary policy in negative territory is between 60% and 90% as effective as in positive territory.
The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output

Brookings Paper in Economic Activity 2018(Fall), Fall 2018, 343-411 | With Coibion and Gorodnichenko

abstract (+)
The fact that declines in output since the Great Recession have been parlayed into equivalent declines in measures of potential output is commonly interpreted as implying that output will not return to previous trends. We show that real-time estimates of potential output for the United States and other countries respond gradually and similarly to both transitory and permanent shocks to output. Observing revisions in measures of potential output therefore tells us little about whether changes in actual output will be permanent. Some alternative methodologies to estimate potential output can avoid these shortcomings. These approaches suggest a much more limited decline in potential output since the Great Recession.
Other Works
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Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures

American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings 109, May 2019, 465-469 | With Coibion and Gorodnichenko

abstract (+)
The length of the recovery since the Great Recession and the low reported levels of the unemployment rate in the U.S. are increasingly generating concerns about inflationary pressures. We document that an expectations-augmented Phillips curve can account for inflation not just in the U.S. but across a range of countries, once household or firm-level inflation expectations are used. Given this relationship, we can infer the dynamics of slack from the dynamics of inflation gaps and vice versa. We find that the implied slack was pushing inflation below expectations in the years after the Great Recession but the global and U.S. inflation gaps have shrunk in recent years thus suggesting tighter economic conditions. While we find no evidence that inflation is on the brink of rising, the sustained deflationary pressures following the Great Recession have abated.