2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference (AEPC)

Thursday, November 14 - Friday, November 15, 2019
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Janet Yellen Conference Center
San Francisco, CA

Download conference program (pdf, 2.7 mb)

Thursday, November 14

Introductory Remarks:
Mary Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Opening Address:
John C. Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Session 1: Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises
Chair: Zheng Liu, Senior Research Advisor and Director of Center for Pacific Basin Studies, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Authors: Michiel De Pooter, Chief, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Giovanni Favara, Chief, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Michele Modugno, Principal Economist, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Jason Wu, Head (Economic Research), Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Discussants: Eric Swanson, Professor, University of California, Irvine
Walker Ray, Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Download paper (pdf, 509 kb)

Session 2: Structural Change, Industrial Upgrading, and Middle Income Trap
Chair: Zheng Liu, Senior Research Advisor and Director of Center for Pacific Basin Studies, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Authors: Justin Yifu Lin, Professor, Peking University
Yong Wang, Associate Professor, Peking University
Discussants: Richard Rogerson, Charles and Marie Robertson Professor of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
Kei-Mu Yi, M.D. Anderson Professor of Economics, University of Houston and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Download paper (pdf, 1.9 mb)

Session 3: Monetary Policy News in the U.S.: Effects on Emerging Market Capital Flows
Chair: Mark Spiegel, Vice President, Financial and International Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Authors: Tatjana Dahlhaus, Principal Researcher, Bank of Canada
Garima Vasishtha, Bank of Canada
Discussants: Galina Hale, Research Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
James Hamilton, Professor of Economics, University of California, San Diego

Download paper (pdf, 590 kb)

Policymakers’ Panel:
Chair: Sylvain Leduc, Director of Research and Executive Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Adrian Orr, Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Kyuil Chung, Deputy Governor, Bank of Korea
Carlos Viana de Carvalho, Former Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Brazil

Download paper (pdf, 715 kb)

Introduction:
Sylvain Leduc, Director of Research and Executive Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Keynote Address:
Stephen S. Poloz, Governor, Bank of Canada

Friday, November 15

Session 4: Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data
Chair: Zheng Liu, Senior Research Advisor and Director of Center for Pacific Basin Studies, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Authors: John G. Fernald, Senior Research Advisor, International Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Professor of Economics, INSEAD
Eric Hsu, Graduate Student, University of California, Berkeley
Mark M. Spiegel, Vice President, Financial and International Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Discussants: Chang-Tai Hsieh, Phyllis and Irwin Winkelried Professor of Economics and PCL Faculty Scholar, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Tao Zha, Samuel Candler Dobbs Professor of Economics, Emory University, Research Executive Director, Center for Quantitative Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and Research Associate, NBER

Download paper (pdf, 1.1 mb)

Session 5: Trade Shocks and the Shifting Landscape of U.S. Manufacturing
Chair: Mark Spiegel, Vice President, Financial and International Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Authors: Katherine Eriksson, Assistant Professor, University of California, Davis
Katheryn N. Russ, Associate Professor, University of California, Davis
Jay C. Shambaugh, Professor, George Washington University
Minfei Xu, Professor, University of California, Davis
Discussants: Nicholas Bloom, William Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University, Senior Fellow of SIEPR, and Co-Director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at the National Bureau of Economic Research
Andres Rodriguez-Clare, Edward G. and Nancy S. Jordan Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley

Download paper (pdf, 1.1 mb)

Introduction:
Mary Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Keynote Address: Three Challenges From and To Globalization
Maurice Obstfeld, Class of 1958 Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley

Organizing Committee:
Zheng Liu
Mark Spiegel